ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Im afraid that once this enters Herbert box 1 all intensity forecast are out the window.

I join you on that. That area is always a hot spot.

[cycloneye]

A. 07L (NONAME)

B. 13/2330Z

C. 16.3N

D. 53.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
AND PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[gatorcane]

I see NHC now mentions the shear ahead. It will likely be an inhibiting factor.

[msbee]

From St. Maarten Met Office:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…


At 5:00 PM, the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West or about 770 miles southeast of St. Maarten. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and higher gusts. On the forecast track, the center of this system is expected to pass approximately 50 miles south of St. Maarten on Sunday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday.

The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and update the public accordingly.

The bring the bird in warnings are up, that means Puerto Rico will be next.

Bird is definitely coming in lol
Yes, PR is right after us.

[hipshot]

From St. Maarten Met Office:
Excuse me but what is the "Bird" you folks are talking about?

thks
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…


At 5:00 PM, the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West or about 770 miles southeast of St. Maarten. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and higher gusts. On the forecast track, the center of this system is expected to pass approximately 50 miles south of St. Maarten on Sunday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday.

The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and update the public accordingly.

The bring the bird in warnings are up, that means Puerto Rico will be next.

Bird is definitely coming in lol
Yes, PR is right after us.

[CyclonicFury]

[ouragans]

https://i.imgur.com/YRi0vsi_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Upgrade to TS at 3z?

[Sciencerocks]

[USVIKimmie]

From St. Maarten Met Office:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…


At 5:00 PM, the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West or about 770 miles southeast of St. Maarten. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and higher gusts. On the forecast track, the center of this system is expected to pass approximately 50 miles south of St. Maarten on Sunday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday.

The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and update the public accordingly.

The bring the bird in warnings are up, that means Puerto Rico will be next.

Bird is definitely coming in lol
Yes, PR is right after us.

Was issued at the 5

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

[Category5Kaiju]

New NHC forecast cone has a bit of a north shift; TD7 may not end up easily getting the brunt of the mountain shredder with this forecast track

[toad strangler]

New NHC forecast cone has a bit of a north shift; TD7 may not end up easily getting the brunt of the mountain shredder with this forecast track

Still plenty of Hispaniola in that 3 day cone. Look at S FL nestled in the 5 day ...

[AtlanticWind]

Does not look to healthy tonight after looking pretty good earlier today with banding starting.
Conditions aren't quite thier yet in the tropical Atlantic.

Still has a shot down the road if it slows down and clears the islands.

[AtlanticWind]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

Some popcorn convection in front of 95L, systems hitting warmer waters at 55 west.

[Hurricaneman]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/07/1000x1000.jpg

Some popcorn convection in front of 95L, systems hitting warmer waters at 55 west.

Looks like it had some self induced westerly shear but now the MLC is stacking with the LLC at 16.2N 55.4w

[Subtrop]

AL, 07, 2021081406, , BEST, 0, 156N, 547W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1014, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,

[Sciencerocks]

[Subtrop]

AL, 07, 2021081406, , BEST, 0, 156N, 547W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1014, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,

AL, 07, 2021081406, , BEST, 0, 156N, 547W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1014, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, M,

[AtlanticWind]

Welcome Grace?

[weeniepatrol]

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JohnConwaywx/status/1426465026836160512

...the intensity forecast
becomes somewhat complicated as the system is forecast to interact
with an upper-level trough while possibly crossing the Greater
Antilles at the same time. Slight weakening is indicated in the NHC
intensity forecast as the system crosses the northern portion of the
Dominican Republic early next week. Thereafter, moderate to strong
northerly shear is forecast to impact Grace as the system moves into
the flow on the western side of an upper-level trough over the
western Atlantic. This shear should prevent any further
strengthening through the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast is a little lower than a blend of the NOAA HCCA and IVCN
consensus, as there is likely a high bias from the HWRF in these
solutions. The latter portion of the NHC intensity forecast is of
lower-than-normal confidence due to the potential for a longer
amount of time over the rugged terrain of the Greater Antilles than
indicated, and also due to the fragile nature of the small cyclone
and the possible effects of the stronger shear later in the
forecast period.