ATL: IDA - Models

[BobHarlem]

12z ukmet final frame, a bit right of the 0z... convergent point between GFS and UK is...


General idea is UKMET builds the ridge further west and connects it with the ridge in the Southwest US. This is plausible, GFS doesn't hook it up, but it probably shows why the gfs ensembles weight left.

[SconnieCane]

HWRF seems to be tracking 99L this time.

Just a slight difference between today's 00Z and 06Z runs...

Of course, last night's 00Z run does what it nearly always does pre-actual TCG, but clearly that level of potential is there based on the other models, and OHC/SSTs.

[ROCK]

So the GEFS ensembles make this clear as mud...

https://i.imgur.com/KJG4ZLB.png

That’s still weighted to the left. Next operational may swing back west.

exactly Jason...they have been constantly to the left of the operational for like 4-5 runs now. That's why I am not hanging my hat on any model run until more consistency.

[Kohlecane]

Well HWRF is entertaining to look at until we get a good COC, has a D/TS already S of Jamaica, but who knows

[Kohlecane]

12z ukmet final frame, a bit right of the 0z... convergent point between GFS and UK is...
https://i.imgur.com/SVhYK01.png

Even though the UKMET is still moving ever so slowly northward, Its been the consistent outlier to potentially trend back to the W

[BensonTCwatcher]

Holy smokes. There is enough clustering of the ensembles and enough overall agreement to be expecting some impacts anywhere from Houston to Lafayette - That's possible TC conditions along the coast Monday afternoon from a system that is is still not organized. It actually does look like a TS until Sunday. This will get crazy overnight Sunday and the average person won't be in full prep. 99L will definitely test the models on cyclogenesis. Like watching a really powerful firecracker's fuse burn down over the next few days. Boom or dud??? Better not be standing too close though.

[Steve]

So the GEFS ensembles make this clear as mud...

https://i.imgur.com/KJG4ZLB.png

That’s still weighted to the left. Next operational may swing back west.

Hey Jason. That may happen. Let's don't forget that the ensembles were way too far west several times last year with Gulf landfalls. Not saying that's going to be the case with 99L, but it's worth noting.

[Steve]

Holy smokes. There is enough clustering of the ensembles and enough overall agreement to be expecting some impacts anywhere from Houston to Lafayette - That's possible TC conditions along the coast Monday afternoon from a system that is is still not organized. It actually does look like a TS until Sunday. This will get crazy overnight Sunday and the average person won't be in full prep. 99L will definitely test the models on cyclogenesis. Like watching a really powerful firecracker's fuse burn down over the next few days. Boom or dud??? Better not be standing too close though.

Back it up Terry...

[HoustonFrog]

So the GEFS ensembles make this clear as mud...

https://i.imgur.com/KJG4ZLB.png

That’s still weighted to the left. Next operational may swing back west.

Hey Jason. That may happen. Let's don't forget that the ensembles were way too far west several times last year with Gulf landfalls. Not saying that's going to be the case with 99L, but it's worth noting.

When is last time a system in the west GOM trended west on the models? Pretty much always shifting east. I guess Laura had some slight shifts west before ultimately shifting back east near landfall

[BobHarlem]

HMON/HWRF still seem to not be latching onto the main center at all. Is what the GFS/CMC/UK showing really 99L or an area that spins up off it? If you check out the HRWF-P for 97L or 95E (Earlier runs) you can actually see what the other models show in the corner.

Here's the 6z HRWF-P spot, the main HWRF doesn't latch onto the area you see here.

[Steve]

That’s still weighted to the left. Next operational may swing back west.

Hey Jason. That may happen. Let's don't forget that the ensembles were way too far west several times last year with Gulf landfalls. Not saying that's going to be the case with 99L, but it's worth noting.

When is last time a system in the west GOM trended west on the models? Pretty much always shifting east. I guess Laura had some slight shifts west before ultimately shifting back east near landfall

Yeah, Laura did. I know Katrina did (though that was in the SE Gulf when it dipped SW after crossing Florida). There have been a few others that went way west of model plots (like Gustav who turned left after landfall). But yeah, I know what you're saying.

[jasons2k]

That’s still weighted to the left. Next operational may swing back west.

Hey Jason. That may happen. Let's don't forget that the ensembles were way too far west several times last year with Gulf landfalls. Not saying that's going to be the case with 99L, but it's worth noting.

When is last time a system in the west GOM trended west on the models? Pretty much always shifting east. I guess Laura had some slight shifts west before ultimately shifting back east near landfall

After Ike nothing would surprise me.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Holy smokes. There is enough clustering of the ensembles and enough overall agreement to be expecting some impacts anywhere from Houston to Lafayette - That's possible TC conditions along the coast Monday afternoon from a system that is is still not organized. It actually does look like a TS until Sunday. This will get crazy overnight Sunday and the average person won't be in full prep. 99L will definitely test the models on cyclogenesis. Like watching a really powerful firecracker's fuse burn down over the next few days. Boom or dud??? Better not be standing too close though.

Back it up Terry...

Don't know Terry...but if your asking me to back it up- It's not my forecast and I may have needed to state that, I was commenting what the models are developing not what will really happen here. We will see what verifies as Gulf storms don't have a track record of following models 5 days out- usually they outperform near the coast. In this case we get to see how well the models can be relied upon to predict cyclogenesis and development.

[Steve]

Holy smokes. There is enough clustering of the ensembles and enough overall agreement to be expecting some impacts anywhere from Houston to Lafayette - That's possible TC conditions along the coast Monday afternoon from a system that is is still not organized. It actually does look like a TS until Sunday. This will get crazy overnight Sunday and the average person won't be in full prep. 99L will definitely test the models on cyclogenesis. Like watching a really powerful firecracker's fuse burn down over the next few days. Boom or dud??? Better not be standing too close though.

Back it up Terry...

Don't know Terry...but if your asking me to back it up- It's not my forecast and I may have needed to state that, I was commenting what the models are developing not what will really happen here. We will see what verifies as Gulf storms don't have a track record of following models 5 days out- usually they outperform near the coast. In this case we get to see how well the models can be relied upon to predict cyclogenesis and development.

Lol. I thought everyone knew that. It was a reference to the firecracker analogy. Just FYI:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SVaHxJhTmk

Also CMC with the Back to Back Gulf storms. That would probably suck.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Back it up Terry...

Don't know Terry...but if your asking me to back it up- It's not my forecast and I may have needed to state that, I was commenting what the models are developing not what will really happen here. We will see what verifies as Gulf storms don't have a track record of following models 5 days out- usually they outperform near the coast. In this case we get to see how well the models can be relied upon to predict cyclogenesis and development.

Lol. I thought everyone knew that. It was a reference to the firecracker analogy. Just FYI:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SVaHxJhTmk

Also CMC with the Back to Back Gulf storms. That would probably suck.

Ha I'm with you now! Didn't see that one LOL. Hope it's just a scare and no one really gets burned

[BobHarlem]

Clear as a brick wall

[captainbarbossa19]

Clear as a brick wall
https://i.imgur.com/5EMr0Zl.png

There are two clusters of members. The first one is just west of Lafayette, Louisiana. The second one is around Freeport, Texas. Historically speaking, Freeport has been a hotspot for major hurricane direct hits in the past. It will be interesting to see what unfolds here.

[SoupBone]

Houston, we have a problem...

[HoustonFrog]

Clear as a brick wall
https://i.imgur.com/5EMr0Zl.png

So interesting that the cluster is clearly on Galveston/just south-west of Galveston but the operational is pretty much on the far eastern side.

[aspen]

What a strange evolution on the 12z HWRF. It tries to develop a TD early, but weakens and is a very messy low upon reaching the Yucatán. In the Gulf, 99L has a broad circulation and can’t intensify much.