ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2661 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:36 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
NDG wrote:No wonder pressure dropped 4 mb in just an hour and fifteen minutes.

https://i.imgur.com/mIrZ7eF.gif

The entire western semicircle is colder than -75C now, and the whole eyewall is -70 or colder. This is a pretty substantial improvement in a pretty short time.


Yes heavy convection in the western semi-circle and deep convection now in a donut around the center. The dry slot on the western CDO is almost gone. RI is now happening. Watch the pressure and not so much windspeed for those new to the board.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2662 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:37 pm

Both recons appear to have aborted.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2663 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:37 pm

wx98 wrote:The Air Force plane just turned around…


Hurricane Eta flashbacks...
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2664 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:38 pm

Everybody: structure is tightening
AF303: lets head back boys
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2665 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:38 pm

Drop in the eye is now showing nearly complete saturation.
CAPE has backed off a little to 3000
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2666 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:38 pm

Are they on 3 hour recon fixes yet? I thought I saw something earlier that said they were going to start those soon.
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2667 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:38 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
wx98 wrote:The Air Force plane just turned around…


Hurricane Eta flashbacks...

Both are doing some funky things. Don't have a clue what is going on.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2668 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:39 pm

I mean seriously, I had hoped that the debacle during Hurricane Eta would have been enough to initiate some real improvements to recon plane dynamics, but now this? What is happening?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2669 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:39 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
wx98 wrote:The Air Force plane just turned around…


Hurricane Eta flashbacks...


Aren't there 10 of the Air force hurricane hunter aircraft? Why are there constantly problems...to fly ALL that way to have to turn around because of problems..whether its mechanical or communication wise..its frustrating. We have a strengthening hurricane 24 hours ( or less) from landfall and cant even get readings.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2670 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:40 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
wx98 wrote:The Air Force plane just turned around…


Hurricane Eta flashbacks...

Both are doing some funky things. Don't have a clue what is going on.


Conspiracy theories commence in 5, 4, .............. :lol:
Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2671 Postby abajan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:40 pm

[youtube]https://youtu.be/a1IiDsk2TBs[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2672 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:40 pm

Eye has also shrunk to 17 nm dia.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2673 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:42 pm

Actually it looks like the NOAA plane might be in a holding pattern to let the AF plane go ahead of it. Now that the AF plane is turning back, maybe the NOAA plane will go back in
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2674 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:43 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Actually it looks like the NOAA plane might be in a holding pattern to let the AF plane go ahead of it. Now that the AF plane is turning back, maybe the NOAA plane will go back in


NOAA plane reported as "finished", so its mission is done.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2675 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:44 pm

[youtube]https://youtu.be/f84ZBFuL1s4[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2676 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:45 pm

If both planes stopped at the same time in the same area it may be a search and rescue operation. Happened before…
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2677 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:45 pm

lemonhead78 wrote:So, just an (I think maybe) observation I've made on these north gulf storms: When they hit the large shallow shelf, they all lose steam quickly.

I mean, all storms "lose" something before landfall from land effects. They may be still deepening, but they deepen less b/c of land.

Deep, near, offshore water lessens it. Increased velocity perpendicular also obviously lessens it. But the north gulf is an easy category off a steady storm at 15kt, maybe a cat and half. This quick "weakening" does little to lower the storm surge (Hi cat5 to Cat3 landfalling Katrina).

But just my little (not really) prediction. Cat 2 landfall after 4. (Or 3 after 5)


It may seem that way, but does not always apply. That certainly does tend to apply for later season landfall though.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2678 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:46 pm

 https://twitter.com/NowItsMidnight/status/1431764768168333313




Disclaimer: this may or may not be true, but if the latter...how did this end up happening?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2679 Postby grapealcoholic » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:46 pm

Surge is going to be a problem

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2680 Postby AC5230 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:47 pm

GCANE wrote:Drop in the eye is now showing nearly complete saturation.
CAPE has backed off a little to 3000

CAPE does not matter
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