ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Saved radar loop.

[wxman57]

Recon finding a mess. Pressure up to 1009 mb or so. Little wind. This is not on its way to being a hurricane, it's more on its way to being a wave than a hurricane. One center approaching southern Cuba, another near eastern Jamaica. No wind even close to TS strength NW or SW of the center(s). Not saying it'll lose its circulation today, but this isn't a strengthening TS. By the way, 43mm/hr rain rate is about like a heavy afternoon shower in Florida - about 1.9"/hr.

[catskillfire51]

[AlphaToOmega]

Saved satellite loop
https://i.imgur.com/AyZV92b.mp4

[hurricane2025]

I’ve been saying for the last 10 hours it’s a big mess

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Elsa has slowed down SIGNIFICANTLY since I went to bed. Now it is only moving at 12 knots WNW.

[boca]

The whole state other than the western panhandle will get affects from this storm even if it degenerates to a TD we should get a few inches of rain out of this but keep an eye on this because it could get its act together as well.

[NDG]

The fact that Elsa continues to weaken despite slowing down considerably proves that the shear has not solely been “self-inflicted,” but is TUTT-related (WV).

The TUTT is no whrere Elsa, there's actually an UL anticyclone over it and a mid level ridge between Elsa and the TUTT.
It looks like the NW shear (as shown on the Hodograph) continues to be from the strong lower level winds over all that keep pushing against it, the reason the LLC keeps displacing itself from the MLC.

[Weatherboy1]

Will be interesting to see what recon finds when it gets to the NE quadrant where the convection is strongest. With the system slowing significantly, I think there is a window for restrengthen if she stays off the coast of Jamaica

[boca]

Elsa is slowing down does that indicate a change in direction from WNW to NW sooner because yesterday it was moving at 295 and today the heading is 285.

[Shell Mound]

The fact that Elsa continues to weaken despite slowing down considerably proves that the shear has not solely been “self-inflicted,” but is TUTT-related (WV).

The TUTT is no whrere Elsa, there's actually an UL anticyclone over it and a mid level ridge between Elsa and the TUTT.
It looks like the NW shear (as shown on the Hodograph) continues to be from the strong lower level winds over all that keep pushing against it, the reason the LLC keeps displacing itself from the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/BbPhXcp.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/9UsQhtM.png
https://i.imgur.com/VbZTB4z.png

It’s remarkable to see just how conducive the overall environment is for RI, yet this one factor is enough to reduce Elsa into a near-open wave. Nature is complex.

[Weatherboy1]

Speaking of recon, wonder what the plane was checking out to the SE of the center. Plot of observations appeared to show it flying in circles there for a bit

[Ivanhater]

Warning

We will not put up with disrespectful comments towards anyone. If you can't follow the rules you will get a permanent ban from S2k.

Things have gotten a little too chippy. It's not hard to be respectful towards people.

[hurricane2025]

Looks like it could split up

[GCANE]

They haven't published a vortex message yet.
That spot is getting warmer on IR with convection circulating around it.
They may wait for another pass.

[NDG]

The fact that Elsa continues to weaken despite slowing down considerably proves that the shear has not solely been “self-inflicted,” but is TUTT-related (WV).

The TUTT is no whrere Elsa, there's actually an UL anticyclone over it and a mid level ridge between Elsa and the TUTT.
It looks like the NW shear (as shown on the Hodograph) continues to be from the strong lower level winds over all that keep pushing against it, the reason the LLC keeps displacing itself from the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/BbPhXcp.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/9UsQhtM.png
https://i.imgur.com/VbZTB4z.png

It’s remarkable to see just how conducive the overall environment is for RI, yet this one factor is enough to reduce Elsa into a near-open wave. Nature is complex.

It definetly is, I always used to look only at the upper levels, then mid levels but didn't think about low to mid level shear induced by a strong low level jet. Elsa has taught me something new from the Pros on Twitter.
UL winds and divergence can't get any better than this, but...

[cycloneye]

Warning

We will not put up with disrespectful comments towards anyone. If you can't follow the rules you will get a permanent ban from S2k.

Things have gotten a little too chippy. It's not hard to be respectful towards people.

As administrator, we second 1000% this post. What we want are good discussions about Elsa and not discussions between members that dont get this forum anywhere.

[Chris90]

I wonder if Jamaica's topography is preventing Elsa from fully wrapping on the western portion of her circulation. Microwave images from 4.5 hours ago were presenting better than she is now. Back then there seemed to be a more solid core, lower levels looked tighter, while the mid level circulation appeared a bit more stretched and not as circular, but still ok.

Now on microwave it's presenting more like a scythe shape that's cleaving its way between Hispaniola/Jamaica/Cuba. It's strange.

I apologize I don't have any attached images, but I'm on my phone, and embedding images doesn't work on mobile.

[aspen]

This is the most counter-intuitive storm I’ve ever seen. It’s slowing down in a more favorable environment to intensify and is looking a lot better than yesterday at this time…yet according to recon, it’s dying.

[boca]

Elsa looks like it’s splitting one piece moving west and the other stronger vortex getting cut off from Jamaica terrain.