EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Elsa has a pinwheel eye in the latest frame.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Pinhole eyes are much smaller than that.

Pinwheel eye not pinhole

Ah my bad lol.

[aspen]

Even thou Best Track has 115kts, I dont fell confortable until the advisory is out because something may happen on the downside in the hour before it comes out.

There are plenty of instances where the NHC goes 5 kt higher than the best track wind speed for their official advisory, usually with intensifying storms. However, I don’t recall them ever going below the BT for a storm that isn’t weakening yet.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

...FELICIA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 122.4W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of powerful Hurricane Felicia
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 122.4 West. Felicia
is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
will be possible today, but slow weakening is expected to begin by
late tonight or early Saturday.

Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

Felicia has continued to strengthen late this morning and early
afternoon, with a very distinct clear eye embedded in the center of
a smooth CDO feature. Although objective satellite classifications
have plateaued at 105-107 kt over the past several hours, likely due
to some warming of the surrounding cloud tops around the eye, the
1800Z subjective intensity estimate from TAFB remained at T6.0 or
115 kt. Internal NHC satellite analyses concur with this estimate.
Based on the persistent TAFB classification and the pronounced eye
feature noted in visible imagery, the initial intensity has been
increased to 115 kt, making Felicia a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Felicia is moving westward again or 265/08 kt. The global and
regional models maintain the strong deep-layer ridge to the north
of the hurricane for the next 120 hours, with only minor track
deviations from a due westward motion expected throughout the
forecast period. The bulk of the latest model guidance has shifted
noticeably northward or to the right of the previous forecast
track, and the new NHC advisory track has been shifted in that
direction as well. However, the new track forecast was not shifted
as far north as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and
instead lies near the southern edge of the track guidance envelope.

Some fluctuations in intensity will still be possible during the
next 12 h as the hurricane traverses a series of small cool and
warm ocean currents or eddies. However, by late tonight or early
Saturday, Felicia is expected to begin a gradual weakening trend
due to cool ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane, along with
intermittent entrainment of very dry mid-level air. However, the
rate of weakening is forecast to be slower than normal due to
expected low vertical wind shear (<10 kt) conditions and Felicia's
stable, annular structure. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the upper end of the
intensity guidance, which is above most of the consensus and
statistical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.9N 122.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.8N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 14.8N 125.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 15.0N 127.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 15.3N 128.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 15.4N 130.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 15.4N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 13.8N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

It's going to be walking a tight rope between 26C and 25C temperatures.



However, because it's annular and shear looks very low for the next 5 days, I'm not sure why the models are rapidly weakening it after days 3-4. It's plausible that this lasts as a respectable system as it enters the CPAC. Especially with the forecast for this to dip below 15N once it reaches 137W. Euro continues to show less shear in the CPAC compared to NCEP guidance.

[Kingarabian]

WTPZ41 KNHC 162031
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

Felicia has continued to strengthen late this morning and early
afternoon, with a very distinct clear eye embedded in the center of
a smooth CDO feature. Although objective satellite classifications
have plateaued at 105-107 kt over the past several hours, likely due
to some warming of the surrounding cloud tops around the eye, the
1800Z subjective intensity estimate from TAFB remained at T6.0 or
115 kt. Internal NHC satellite analyses concur with this estimate.
Based on the persistent TAFB classification and the pronounced eye
feature noted in visible imagery, the initial intensity has been
increased to 115 kt, making Felicia a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Felicia is moving westward again or 265/08 kt. The global and
regional models maintain the strong deep-layer ridge to the north
of the hurricane for the next 120 hours, with only minor track
deviations from a due westward motion expected throughout the
forecast period. The bulk of the latest model guidance has shifted
noticeably northward or to the right of the previous forecast
track, and the new NHC advisory track has been shifted in that
direction as well. However, the new track forecast was not shifted
as far north as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and
instead lies near the southern edge of the track guidance envelope.

Some fluctuations in intensity will still be possible during the
next 12 h as the hurricane traverses a series of small cool and
warm ocean currents or eddies. However, by late tonight or early
Saturday, Felicia is expected to begin a gradual weakening trend
due to cool ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane, along with
intermittent entrainment of very dry mid-level air. However, the
rate of weakening is forecast to be slower than normal due to
expected low vertical wind shear (<10 kt) conditions and Felicia's
stable, annular structure. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the upper end of the
intensity guidance, which is above most of the consensus and
statistical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.9N 122.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.8N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 14.8N 125.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 15.0N 127.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 15.3N 128.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 15.4N 130.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 15.4N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 13.8N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[aspen]

I would pay to have recon in this storm, but both fortunately and unfortunately, it’s too far from any land.

[Astromanía]

Well this beautiful and strong system will bring a good amount of ACE for this EPAC season that I'm still not sure if it will be more interesting than 2017, 2019 and 2020 seasons or not

[AutoPenalti]

Very impressive.



I've been having trouble uploading through Imgur lately, it seems to be only when I download straight from TT.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Very impressive.

https://i.ibb.co/DWPsWKb/goes17-vis-06-E-202107161815.gif

I've been having trouble uploading through Imgur lately, it seems to be only when I download straight from TT.

postimages.org works similar to imgur.com and is much more straightforward.

[AlphaToOmega]

This has become a Category IV hurricane. This storm keeps exceeding model expectations. It might become a Category V.

[AlphaToOmega]

HWRF is finally running for 96E. Watch it blow this up into a Cat 3 lol. The first HWRF runs always overdo the intensity.

So what was that about overdoing intensity?

[aspen]

HWRF is finally running for 96E. Watch it blow this up into a Cat 3 lol. The first HWRF runs always overdo the intensity.

So what was that about overdoing intensity?

Well, at least it did better than basically every other model.

The award for the Worst Storm Initialization Ever goes to today’s 12z CMC and ICON runs, which initialized Felicia as a >1000 mbar tropical storm when it was officially a Cat 3 in the mid 960s.

[Kingarabian]

Here's the SST situation/visualization, although the most recent NHC track is a bit more north of 15N.

[Kingarabian]

Trying to get away from 15N as much as possible:

[Kingarabian]

HWRF is finally running for 96E. Watch it blow this up into a Cat 3 lol. The first HWRF runs always overdo the intensity.

So what was that about overdoing intensity?

Well, at least it did better than basically every other model.

The award for the Worst Storm Initialization Ever goes to today’s 12z CMC and ICON runs, which initialized Felicia as a >1000 mbar tropical storm when it was officially a Cat 3 in the mid 960s.

This is also pretty bad from the GFS which has consistently analyzed Felicia too weak. This about 17mb off.


Not used to seeing this from the GFS.

Really hard to understand this from the GFS. Decays an annular Felicia quickly but keeps a sloppy 97E intact over 23-24C waters.

[aspen]

The core is so tiny that I can’t tell if there’s any trace of partial eyewalls forming.

[Kingarabian]

The core is so tiny that I can’t tell if there’s any trace of partial eyewalls forming.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021ep06/amsusr89/2021ep06_amsusr89_202107161627.gif

I wonder if there's enough space for an ERC. If it does, the result will be a larger eye.

Not much evidence for another eyewall in this AMSR2 pass.

[Yellow Evan]

No signs of an ERC as expected.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUL 2021 Time : 225031 UTC
Lat : 14:47:23 N Lon : 122:35:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 959.6mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +16.6C Cloud Region Temp : -59.9C

Scene Type : EYE