ATL: IDA - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#281 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:01 pm

Watch the latest Tropical Tidbits video. Levi talking about the lower area developing and ambiguities as far as center consolidation being higher than normal.

12Z Euro running

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#282 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:02 pm

Euro continues to develop the northern part of the wave. Much better defined than the last two runs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#283 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:04 pm

Euro develops faster then previous run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#284 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:04 pm

Closer Look

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#285 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:07 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#286 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:08 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#287 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:10 pm

NAM has a very similar 500MB look
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#288 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:15 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#289 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:17 pm

Euro faster than the GFS at 96 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#290 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:21 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#291 Postby 3090 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:22 pm

Euro looks more plausible ATM, based on what we can see on satellite imagery. To me, it appears the LLC will form on the northern edge of the wave axis, which will obviously have an impact on the future path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#292 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:22 pm

Meanwhile the HWRF is finished.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#293 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:28 pm

964 into western Louisiana on the WxBell high resolution Euro.

No doubt there will be some pretty extreme EPS solutions given what the operational just put out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#294 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:30 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:964 into western Louisiana on the WxBell high resolution Euro.

No doubt there will be some pretty extreme EPS solutions given what the operational just put out.


Euro showing rapid intensification on approach as well it seems
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#295 Postby kevin » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:30 pm

Uh... When the ever so conservative euro does this it's time to run, or at least time to prep. This is definitely the strongest euro run for a storm this year so far.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#296 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:31 pm

12Z Euro

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#297 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:33 pm

Full-res Euro would probably be a solid Cat 3.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#298 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:35 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Full-res Euro would probably be a solid Cat 3.

https://i.imgur.com/XrltBO7.png

That run shows landfall between Creole and Grand Chenier, the areas that experienced the peak storm tides in Laura and Audrey, respectively. :sick:
Last edited by Shell Mound on Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#299 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:36 pm

This afternoon has a pretty big spread track wise, but almost all models went stronger. Operational GFS/EURO are Louisiana Monday evening, ensembles weighted left of there. HMON loses it, HWRF almost loses it but then sticks a Cat 3 heading into Galveston Island. UK Is still southern Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#300 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:37 pm

tolakram wrote:Meanwhile the HWRF is finished.

https://i.imgur.com/FDfPLAh.png



yeah saw that...typical HWRF...destroys a major city and port. awesome
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