ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[LSU2001]

Nate, I hope that is all we wake up to. I am thinking by 6:00 am or so, it will be a solid cst three, headed for four

[sikkar]

Convection fully wrapped around center, also that eye sore dry slot is gone. Doesn't seem to be any reason not to reach the proposed cat 4.

[GCANE]

CAPE has increased to 4000 NE of the core.
More than what I have seen in the forecasts

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431748833277616130

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/NowItsMidnight/status/1431764768168333313

Disclaimer: this may or may not be true, but if the latter...how did this end up happening?

Fouchon is insane. It’s restricted now but used to have a cool surfer scene back in the day. It’s the most waterfront industrial area you can imagine hopped up on steroid shots. It’s ultra bright on the darkest, newest moon

[cheezyWXguy]

My guess for Ida’s intensity when I wake up at like 6 tomorrow morning: 954-958mb and 95-100 kt.

Think it’s gonna reach that point sooner rather than later. That deep convection now completely surrounding the eye is going to transport those stronger winds to the surface much more efficiently.

[Craters]

https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1431719808668782597

You can see the upper-level low spinning in the Western Gulf (25N, 95W) in this water vapor loop. Look for the counter-clockwise spin:

https://i.postimg.cc/NMRd2BG6/goes16-wv-mid-gom.gif

I know that low was in the Gulf even before Ida formed, but is it possible that it's still there because it's basically being forced to exist by the outflows from Nora and Ida? Looks like it's trapped, and nothing else could really be there between two anticyclones except for a low, right?

[Kohlecane]

Sure looks to be getting it's act together, even if it is gradually intensifying, wouldn't be at all surprised to see it at 110-115kt in the next 8 hours

[GCANE]

That north wall tower is moving pretty fast

[Chris_in_Tampa]

https://i.imgur.com/27hnUPX.png

Does the track seem like it missed the eye or is that just a plotting error?

Closeup of NOAA recon with satellite imagery at 9:26pm EDT. (https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/)



NOAA recon plane location as at 9:14pm EDT, zoomed out with satellite imagery from 9:11pm EDT:

[Nimbus]

RAP forecast at landfall tomorrow afternoon.
No convective inhibition but moving into drier mid-level air.
Not too sure this will be intensifying at landfall.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/yNczzsKd/RAP-255-2021082823-F18-29-0000-N-91-0000-W.png [/url]

May be ready for an eyewall replacement cycle by then, at least the eye is fairly small but I don't want to get my hopes up now that its down in the 960's.

[Nate-Gillson]

Oh yeah, I just realized that Ida is forecast to make landfall in the early afternoon tomorrow. I thought it would be during the nighttime. Hopefully no strong cat 3 let alone cat 4.

[GCANE]

New tower going up now directly opposite to the fast moving tower.
This could be the start of RI.

[gatorcane]

Here she goes, look at that deep convection which was on the south side wrapping around to the north.

Pressure falls and wind speed increases will be the result.

[LSU2001]

That tweet about Fourchon is probably correct. There a quite a number of boats there that have been mothballed for several years due to the slow down in offshore oil drilling. Most of those boats are not even operable at this point. It would take a good bit of time and effort just to get the engines started. I imagine they will stay there for the duration unless they break loose and end up in the mArsh.

I’m also worried about the loft boat city they have parked just east of Fourchon about 2 miles south of Timbalier island. They have been there several years as well and I would bet most of them are inoperable as well. They are sitting in about 40 feet of water with the deck jacked up well above the surface but with maximum waves being forecast at 70 feet I imagine some will be flipped over come Monday morning

[Kazmit]

New tower going up now directly opposite to the fast moving tower.
This could be the start of RI.

The double fists are back.

[Highteeld]

Here she goes, look at that deep convection which was on the south side wrapping around to the north.

Pressure falls and wind speed increases will be the result.

https://i.postimg.cc/FRRJ2Q1y/goes16-ir-goes16-meso1.gif

Upshear convective symmetrization during the DMAX is always a good time.

[GCANE]

Helicity in the eyewall slowly increasing as well.

host image

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Here she goes, look at that deep convection which was on the south side wrapping around to the north.

Pressure falls and wind speed increases will be the result.

https://i.postimg.cc/FRRJ2Q1y/goes16-ir-goes16-meso1.gif

Look at the band to the north, the towers

Everytime I see a hurricane bands get these towers the Rapid Intensification is incredible. Its not 20-30 knots, it ends up being a 40+ knot upgrade in the span of a day.

Hope i am wrong

[SunnyThoughts]

I have no doubt she's strengthening now...and probably at a pretty good rate. Problem is we don't have another recon plane for almost 6 hours. Unacceptable. this close to landfall. Sorry, but im so frustrated at this happening all too often.