ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

If you zoom out, Elsa does not look so bad. It looks like everything is starting to pull together....just time to get ripped apart when she makes landfall....

Can't ignore what the EURO sees when the barocyclonic(sp?) forcing start happening.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe it is the wine and bbq.. but it is slowly doing what needs to get sone.

[psyclone]

Maybe it is the wine and bbq.. but it is slowly doing what needs to get sone.

It's the BBQ

[Cat5James]

Maybe it is the wine and bbq.. but it is slowly doing what needs to get sone.

Enjoy the wine! But I don’t think you are seeing things… Elsa MIGHT be getting her act together after dodging a THIRD mountain chain

[AveryTheComrade]

I'm 75% sure that the center is under the dry slot, whether that's a legitimate eye feature or not though I don't have a clue

[SouthernBreeze]

If you haven’t checked the model thread, you may want to see the 12z Euro that just came out.

Is showing a tropical storm hitting FL so what about it.

We’re all in suspense ?

AND riding the coast of SC & NC instead of staying a ways inland.

[cane5]

So what we are starting to see is that the well dug in High Pressure Ridge in the Atlantic is just subtly starting to weaken as the Euro shows but the euro showed it might hit Hispaniola. So who knows ?

[SFLcane]

If you zoom out, Elsa does not look so bad. It looks like everything is starting to pull together....just time to get ripped apart when she makes landfall....

Can't ignore what the EURO sees when the barocyclonic(sp?) forcing start happening.

Could definitely put some rainbands and heavy rainfall across SFL.

[rigbyrigz]

You are a TS


I'm not for sure...but I think you just wrote the first Tropical Storm folk song..

Well, Dylan's "Like a Rolling Stone" was definitely the first, but sure, a good number 2...

(I'm listening Amazon Music, what are the odds that Dylan's song just started playing as I typed this. So weird, HOW DOES IT FEEL??)

[skillz305]

So what we are starting to see is that the well dug in High Pressure Ridge in the Atlantic is just subtly starting to weaken as the Euro shows but the euro showed it might hit Hispaniola. So who knows ?

I think the track will end up shifting east, very soon. They tend to shift east and it has yet to happen. Watch closely tonight, it’ll tell a lot. Although a shift east means more shredding from cuba so who knows if it’ll even survive it

[Jr0d]

Tough to find the center at the Pilón, Cuba radar sight....almost looks like it made landfall....then possibly another fort forming further west.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Recon is en route now.

A shift east means it will miss the mountains of Central.Cuba and have relatively flat land to cross...so not much shredding unless Elsa starts going almost due north now.

[cane5]

And one last thing if you look at latest movement I see a northern slant quicker tha predicted and that might be influenced by this digging traugh almost horizontal with Tampa.

[skyline385]

If you zoom out, Elsa does not look so bad. It looks like everything is starting to pull together....just time to get ripped apart when she makes landfall....

Can't ignore what the EURO sees when the barocyclonic(sp?) forcing start happening.

NHC said that much in the 11 AM discussion as well - "Nonetheless, the storm still looks fairly impressive on satellite images with a well-defined convective banding feature over the northern through eastern portions of the circulation. Also, the highest cloud tops are quite cold and near -70C."
The problem is that it is still struggling so that structure doesn't seem to be doing much...

[AtlanticWind]

So what we are starting to see is that the well dug in High Pressure Ridge in the Atlantic is just subtly starting to weaken as the Euro shows but the euro showed it might hit Hispaniola. So who knows ?

I think the track will end up shifting east, very soon. They tend to shift east and it has yet to happen. Watch closely tonight, it’ll tell a lot. Although a shift east means more shredding from cuba so who knows if it’ll even survive it

I think a shift east would mean it will start turning north earlier, that would mean it would cross less of cuba

[aspen]

AF304 has just taken off from Florida, so we’ll probably have a new center fix no later than 6pm.

[hohnywx]

If you haven’t checked the model thread, you may want to see the 12z Euro that just came out.

Is showing a tropical storm hitting FL so what about it.

My point being, some are calling Elsa “dead” and the Euro just had its strongest run yet.

[Jr0d]

If you zoom out, Elsa does not look so bad. It looks like everything is starting to pull together....just time to get ripped apart when she makes landfall....

Can't ignore what the EURO sees when the barocyclonic(sp?) forcing start happening.

NHC said that much in the 11 AM discussion as well - "Nonetheless, the storm still looks fairly impressive on satellite images with a well-defined convective banding feature over the northern through eastern portions of the circulation. Also, the highest cloud tops are quite cold and near -70C."
The problem is that it is still struggling so that structure isnt going to help...

What will help spin up winds is barocyclonic forcing when Elsa interacts with a front as she pulls north then northeast...

[hohnywx]

Is showing a tropical storm hitting FL so what about it.

We’re all in suspense ?

AND riding the coast of SC & NC instead of staying a ways inland.

Yes, another good point. I don’t think any model had it that strong off the coast of NC.

[Teban54]

Watching Elsa with what seems to be an eye feature on IR and visible that's made of several messy hot towers is giving me flashbacks of Zeta 2020 after exiting from Yucatan. At some point, Zeta was almost devoid of convection and looked like it was dying. Then a few hot towers started firing off and rotating around the LLC, kind of similar to Elsa now with a bit less overall convection but better organized. Within hours, Zeta developed a solid core and soon started RI to a major with baroclinic forcing.

Not saying the same will happen to Elsa, as they obviously have very different circumstances and Elsa may not even have an LLC at this point. But its current presentation somehow strongly reminded me of Zeta's, and latest Euro seems to predict Elsa strengthening with baroclinic forcing once it recurves, too.

Just some opinion from an amateur who has been lurking around but didn't post often as he may or may not get the terminologies right.

[skyline385]

If you haven’t checked the model thread, you may want to see the 12z Euro that just came out.

Is showing a tropical storm hitting FL so what about it.

My point being, some are calling Elsa “dead” and the Euro just had its strongest run yet.

That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...