ATL: FRED - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like the trend the last few runs has been more north and east. 12z euro will be interesting.

To Louisiana it goes.

[AutoPenalti]

Now that's hilarious... HWRF literally threading the needle with the Mona Passage scenario. Because of this, it's stronger than 06z

[kevin]

12z HWRF reaches hurricane strength at +54 hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

12z HWRF reaches hurricane strength at +54 hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/pVHDJpt.png

Pressure seems right but the windspeed a little too high.

[Shell Mound]

12z HWRF reaches hurricane strength at +54 hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/pVHDJpt.png

Pressure seems right but the windspeed a little too high.

I still don’t think this will become stronger than a low-end TS before impacting South Florida and/or the Keys. The HWRF is suffering from feedback again.

[BobHarlem]

HMON Comes back to life at 84 hours out.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF entering the Gulf Stream 984mb.

[GeneratorPower]

The HWRF is tracking this system north of the Greater Antilles and keeps center offshore. That's why it's stronger.

[kevin]

HWRF is doing typical HWRF things. High-end cat 1 Bahamas landfall, 81 kts at +78 hrs. Not saying it's impossible if the true track exactly replicates this run, but seeing as the other models are way less aggressive I'm leaning towards a weaker system than what HWRF is currently showing.

[tolakram]

HWRF a little too convenient a track, plus

IF (over water) and ( > 48 hours) THEN GO CRAZY!

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF a little too convenient a track, plus

IF (over water) and ( > 48 hours) THEN GO CRAZY!

I think it's more to do with the reformations to the north. It is convenient that it goes between both islands.

[BobHarlem]

12Z HMON after it comes back to life after the Hispaniola "splat".

[SFLcane]

Look who is coming around even after splashing into islands.

Hmmm..

[Jr0d]

Once again forward speed now makes a big difference on when the turn north will happen. The general trend is a slower storm will turn north further east. The EURO, JMA and to a lesser extent the CMC show the high extending just a little further east and push the storm into the Florida Keys before turning north.

Even 1 mph forward speed difference could mean the difference of turning north into south Florida and limiting time over the water in very favorable conditions or remaining in open water over the Florida Keys while strengthening (perhaps rapidly).

Even a 50 mile difference on the track can make a huge difference.

First thing is Hispaniola, if this system passes just north of the island like the HWRF is showing, then I think the Florida Keys and S. Florida could see a hurricane.

The one thing that is certain is it will be a very small storm until it makes the turn north. This is good for limiting the impacted area but bad because how fast tiny storms can intensify.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF 93 Hours... 104 mph Cat 2 Approaching SFL... Slight NE Shift Again.

[Shell Mound]

12Z HMON after it comes back to life after the Hispaniola "splat".

https://i.imgur.com/tAnKc6T.gif

It’s interesting that the HMON shows rapid regeneration and reorganisation over the Gulf Stream and during landfall on Florida, despite the trek over the islands.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I will say the potential for a quick episode of rapid intensification right before FL is a little concerning. Conditions do appear more favorable than they were a few days ago.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF 96 Hours... Landfall Miami/FTL Winds >100 mph... Slight NE Shift Again.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF with a high end Cat 2 to Dania Beach/Ft. Lauderdale Saturday morning.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF decimates Broward.