ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skillz305]

Just sit back. Remember this is a late June storm coming off Africa. Crazy to think the models had this storm forming behind Invest 95L (maybe 96?) sorry forgot. I feel like a lot of people want to see this strengthen and do this or that. But it’s so early in the season that this is astounding. So what if Cuba shreds up Elsa? We’re in rare territory and hey, we have 4 weeks before August even STARTS. Stay safe if Elsa does come your way though nonetheless. Us locals recently in Florida can attest to the afternoon/evening thunderstorms everyday so we can say the ground is already saturated. The squally weather will reach us on the ‘dirty’ (almost laughed) side if it makes landfall on the west coast of FL. (Speaking from Central E FL) Treasure Coast. The models do seem to have this going off shore a bit longer but let Mother Nature do it’s thing. It’s gonna make landfall somewhere eventually. God bless!

[Craters]

Feeder bands look to be 10hrs away from South Florida. It’s as clear as day a front is digging down and you can see it in the imagery. This should start to pull Elsa up earlier than anticipated.

Earlier than anticipated by what?

According to the cone which go by the models. Basically there is a break up of the storm so influences are already far away from the center so the cone means little here.

I don't think the cone goes "by the models." It's mapped relative to the NHC's projected path, which includes quite a bit more than just model input. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[Nimbus]

I thought the hurricane hunters were exempt from the Cuba no-fly rule....but it looks like Teal 72 is taking a trip around Cuba, instead of going straight to the storm....

https://www.flightradar24.com/TEAL72/2849d491

That’s the conversation I thought we had this morning!

Goes back to the when the Bell Labs Technical Journal was published bi-monthly and John Coltrane was playing the Sax in those smokey nightclubs. The flight out of Homestead AFB isn't going anywhere very fast either?

[Aric Dunn]

Now she's getting groove on.

[BYG Jacob]

Now she's getting groove on.

Nearly a full ring of towers right on top of that curved band.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Earlier than anticipated by what?

According to the cone which go by the models. Basically there is a break up of the storm so influences are already far away from the center so the cone means little here.

I don't think the cone goes "by the models." It's mapped relative to the NHC's projected path, which includes quite a bit more than just model input. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Each season, the NHC analyzes forecast error for each track point (0, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hrs). They determine a 66.7% error circle around each track point, meaning the storm tracked within that circle 66.7% of the time. They average those errors over the past 5 years to get the 66.7% error at each track point. Circles are drawn at each track point and connected by tangents. Thus, the cone is born. The cone has nothing to do with models or the probability that a storm will take a certain path. It has nothing to do with impacts. It simply defines that over the past 5 years, the center tracked within the cone 66.7% of the time. Since we're getting better at forecasting the track each year, the cone is shrinking year-by-year. Errors get smaller, cone keeps shrinking. As the cone shrinks, impacts are extending farther outside the cone. The cone would be the same size if every single model forecast the exact same track or if every model had a storm moving in a different direction and the NHC had no clue where it was going. It's the same for every single advisory and for every single storm, all season. it only changes the next season once the new year's track errors are computed and averaged with the previous 4 seasons. The cone is pretty much meaningless as far as the probability of a storm tracking in a particular direction on any given advisory.

[SFLcane]

Round and round we go lol. Just poof already

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1411803518982311941

[Sanibel]

They are right...Look closely at the surface clouds and there is very weak inflow...Almost no southern quad west wind inflow...

[toad strangler]

Round and round we go lol. Just poof already

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1411803518982311941

Isaias was like this until shortly before landfall. Not saying this is THAT but the old saying is true today as back in the day. Until a cyclone passes to the N of your latitude stay alert!

[Michele B]

These junk storms are exactly how we build a rock solid foundation of...complacency.

VERY good point!

So what should we do then (using "we" as though I'm part of the decision-making team!).

Should NHC NOT put so much focus on the storms until they ARE a real threat?

[AtlanticWind]

GFS liking this storm more on 18z

[Hammy]

I'm struggling to find where the center is, and both Cayman and Cuban radars don't really show any west to east motion, though the MLC continues to be well defined. I wonder if the general flow around the islands is inhibiting the circulation in the same way as you tend to see with storms that pass through the Hawaiian islands.

A bit off topic but a bit interesting--Elsa joints the ranks of Ernesto (2006), Erika (2009), Emily (2011), Ernesto (2012), Erika (2015), and Earl (2016) of E storms that have struggled in the central Caribbean.

These junk storms are exactly how we build a rock solid foundation of...complacency.

VERY good point!

So what should we do then (using "we" as though I'm part of the decision-making team!).

Should NHC NOT put so much focus on the storms until they ARE a real threat?

NHC is doing their jobs just fine, the problem is the media hyping storms up more than they are.

[cane5]

I don’t pretend to know more than I know or the great storm enthusiasts that I admire here. I basically look at environmental influences and I never pretend to figure out wind velocity. Other than steering currents you have pressure systems and traugh s that have the most influence that you can forecast how a storm will be guided. I think some of you are overthink the cone. When you look at spaghetti models there can be a hundred and then we have a few like the euro and gfs that we mostly rely on. But it is the compilation of those models all put together and then averaged out and that is basically what gives the NHC their structure. It is a safe way to predict and not incur any liability. There is a lot of responsibility in predicting storms that effect millions of peoples lives. Those models are very sophisticated and are very reliable I agree.

[AtlanticWind]

but then how many times I have heard people in an area say they were surprised by a storms strengh or rain.
they walk a fine line.

[Vdogg]

It’s not all about Florida. We in Virginia are watching what could potentially be a hurricane riding up the coast if the Euro verifies.

Highly unlikely that will verify. nothing to allow it to get that strong. The EURO is out to lunch on that one, which is why the NHC doesn't even mention it...

Those wind probabilities cover a specific time frame and rise as a storm gets closer to the area. Yesterday that percentage was 0. By Wednesday it’ll probably be 30-40% if the storm maintains course.

[SFLcane]

Round and round we go lol. Just poof already

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1411803518982311941

Isaias was like this until shortly before landfall. Not saying this is THAT but the old saying is true today as back in the day. Until a cyclone passes to the N of your latitude stay alert!

Euro ensembles we’re pretty excited with it and had some 990’s 989 crossing SFL through Naples. We shall see

[robbielyn]

I'm struggling to find where the center is, and both Cayman and Cuban radars don't really show any west to east motion, though the MLC continues to be well defined. I wonder if the general flow around the islands is inhibiting the circulation in the same way as you tend to see with storms that pass through the Hawaiian islands.

A bit off topic but a bit interesting--Elsa joints the ranks of Ernesto (2006), Erika (2009), Emily (2011), Ernesto (2012), Erika (2015), and Earl (2016) of E storms that have struggled in the central Caribbean.

These junk storms are exactly how we build a rock solid foundation of...complacency.

VERY good point!


So what should we do then (using "we" as though I'm part of the decision-making team!).

Should NHC NOT put so much focus on the storms until they ARE a real threat?

well if the nhc did that we would all be in trouble because conditions can change on a dime. at the time based on modeling and atmospheric conditions, a storm can look to be a serious hurricane and then something unbeknownst at the time can throw a monkey wrench into it and then it’s weak. weather is constantly fluid, intensity isn’t their strong suit but id rather hv a storm weaken on me then suddenly sneak up on my doorstep as an unexpected hurricane. i think if people look at these storms with vigilence and preparation and not stake their lives on model swinging, they will hv enough time to do what’s best for their family. storms hv a mind of their own they aren’t always simple and predictable.

NHC is doing their jobs just fine, the problem is the media hyping storms up more than they are.

[cane5]

Hate to be right guys Weather Channel just said elsa is moving more northerly and hit cuba shortly. Some people tell me I’m not just another pretty face

[eastcoastFL]

Can anyone explain why the Dvorak estimates seem so far off from the actual numbers with Elsa?


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2021 Time : 215020 UTC
Lat : 19:55:54 N Lon : 78:02:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.1mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.2 2.6

Center Temp : -32.4C Cloud Region Temp : -50.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 70nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES16