ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

If it keeps deepening at this rate all the way up to landfall, I would argue that the possibility of it reaching category five shortly before or practically at landfall is still possible.

It would absolutely have to book it on intensification to get Cat 5. I just don’t see it. A mid-grade Cat 4? Sure.

So basically do what Michael did.

[ElectricStorm]

In the 11pm discussion the NHC said the following

Flight-level and
SFMR observations also indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded
and there is some indication of a double-wind maximum.

Has anyone looked to see if this is continuing? If so there could be an EWRC coming soon. I'm just too tired to go look

I don't see any double wind max

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde measured 955 mb with 3 kt winds.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well I was watching TWC and Bettes just seemingly “signed off” for the night and now they playing the local on the 8s music on constant repeat while showing an endless barrage of weather graphics involving Ida (rain, wind, etc.)

I guess they need their rest too...gonna be a long couple of days ahead for them

[wx98]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/vnhZH41.gif

IR visible eye is making a loop.

[IcyTundra]

If it keeps deepening at this rate all the way up to landfall, I would argue that the possibility of it reaching category five shortly before or practically at landfall is still possible.

Not enough time for Ida to reach cat 5 imo. It would have to intensify at a similar rate to Wilma to reach cat 5 at this point. Not like it really matters for the people of SE Louisiana though the difference between a high end cat 4 and a low end cat 5 is negligible in terms of impacts.

[MarioProtVI]

Well I was watching TWC and Bettes just seemingly “signed off” for the night and now they playing the local on the 8s music on constant repeat while showing an endless barrage of weather graphics involving Ida (rain, wind, etc.)

Same here. Very odd.

[kn4ds]

Well I was watching TWC and Bettes just seemingly “signed off” for the night and now they playing the local on the 8s music on constant repeat while showing an endless barrage of weather graphics involving Ida (rain, wind, etc.)

When did TWC start doing weather again?

[Blinhart]

If it keeps deepening at this rate all the way up to landfall, I would argue that the possibility of it reaching category five shortly before or practically at landfall is still possible.

Not enough time for Ida to reach cat 5 imo. It would have to intensify at a similar rate to Wilma to reach cat 5 at this point. Not like it really matters for the people of SE Louisiana though the difference between a high end cat 4 and a low end cat 5 is negligible in terms of impacts.

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

[ElectricStorm]

Massive windfield on the south side

[AJC3]

In the 11pm discussion the NHC said the following

Flight-level and
SFMR observations also indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded
and there is some indication of a double-wind maximum.

Has anyone looked to see if this is continuing? If so there could be an EWRC coming soon. I'm just too tired to go look. The eye cant get much smaller

There was nothing in the first recon pass that suggests there is, and there's no "double banding/moat" signature in the BRef data from the KLIX radar that suggests it either.

[Blinhart]

Well I was watching TWC and Bettes just seemingly “signed off” for the night and now they playing the local on the 8s music on constant repeat while showing an endless barrage of weather graphics involving Ida (rain, wind, etc.)

Same here. Very odd.

Sitting here doing this board, and put it on TWC and saw the graphics and heard the music and was expecting it to stop soon and it hasn't, so weird.

[Keldeo1997]

If it keeps deepening at this rate all the way up to landfall, I would argue that the possibility of it reaching category five shortly before or practically at landfall is still possible.

Not enough time for Ida to reach cat 5 imo. It would have to intensify at a similar rate to Wilma to reach cat 5 at this point. Not like it really matters for the people of SE Louisiana though the difference between a high end cat 4 and a low end cat 5 is negligible in terms of impacts.

Math suggests that if it keeps its near 3mb per hour deepening rate going until landfall the Pressure would be in the 920s. Not likely put not impossible.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431845807527903240

[cheezyWXguy]

If it keeps deepening at this rate all the way up to landfall, I would argue that the possibility of it reaching category five shortly before or practically at landfall is still possible.

Not enough time for Ida to reach cat 5 imo. It would have to intensify at a similar rate to Wilma to reach cat 5 at this point. Not like it really matters for the people of SE Louisiana though the difference between a high end cat 4 and a low end cat 5 is negligible in terms of impacts.

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

[wx98]

If it keeps deepening at this rate all the way up to landfall, I would argue that the possibility of it reaching category five shortly before or practically at landfall is still possible.

Not enough time for Ida to reach cat 5 imo. It would have to intensify at a similar rate to Wilma to reach cat 5 at this point. Not like it really matters for the people of SE Louisiana though the difference between a high end cat 4 and a low end cat 5 is negligible in terms of impacts.

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

I think you can make a pretty educated guess at this point.

[Kohlecane]

Well I was watching TWC and Bettes just seemingly “signed off” for the night and now they playing the local on the 8s music on constant repeat while showing an endless barrage of weather graphics involving Ida (rain, wind, etc.)

I guess they need their rest too...gonna be a long couple of days ahead for them

It's just funny because they advertised all night coverage"24/7" as opposed to Henri where they said continuous coverage till 12CDT/1EDT It was funny he also stumbled up saying the winds were 964mph referring to the most recent update

[Blinhart]

Not enough time for Ida to reach cat 5 imo. It would have to intensify at a similar rate to Wilma to reach cat 5 at this point. Not like it really matters for the people of SE Louisiana though the difference between a high end cat 4 and a low end cat 5 is negligible in terms of impacts.

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

It could have anywhere from 12 to 24 hours to landfall, depends on exactly where she makes landfall, where and when she starts slowing down. Because all models do show her slowing down, most do it right after landfall, however what happens if she slows down before landfall, what effect will that have on her. We are here at the mercy of Mother Nature and she will do what she wants when she wants.

[Comradez]

I doubt Ida can make it to cat 5. Not because there isn't enough time, but because the CDO would have to cool to levels that Ida has never reached so far. I think organization and coverage of the CDO will steadily improve and get Ida to at least 140 mph, but you need solid rings of -80C cold-dark-grey CDO to get to cat 5, and I just don't see the potential for that on exhibit.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1431846416725458953




ugggg

[Blinhart]

Not enough time for Ida to reach cat 5 imo. It would have to intensify at a similar rate to Wilma to reach cat 5 at this point. Not like it really matters for the people of SE Louisiana though the difference between a high end cat 4 and a low end cat 5 is negligible in terms of impacts.

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.