WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Iceresistance]

Surigae now has a Complete eye! UPDATE: Eye Temperature now above -20°C



Also just north of 10°N

[Meow]

JMA CI: 5.5 | DT: 5.5 | MET: 5.5 | PT: 6.0 | FT: 5.5

[cycloneye]

Keeps climbing.

[Hayabusa]

12Z EC is like 00Z but the track and landfall is more north.

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to 950 mb, new peak 915 mb.

TY2102(Surigae)
Issued at 2021/04/16 18:45 UTC
Analisys at 04/16 18 UTC
Category TY
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center Position N10°0′(10.0°)
E132°5′(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
50-kt wind area S150km(80NM)
N85km(45NM)
30-kt wind area S650km(350NM)
N430km(230NM)

Forecast at 04/17 18 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center of probability circle N12°25′(12.4°)
E128°40′(128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 95km(50NM)
Storm warning area WIDE300km(160NM)

Forecast at 04/18 18 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Violent
Center of probability circle N13°50′(13.8°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 165km(90NM)
Storm warning area WIDE390km(210NM)

[Hayabusa]

Ensembles shifted back to east

[aspen]

Where is the JTWC’s 18z best track update? It’s extremely late.

[ElectricStorm]

Where is the JTWC’s 18z best track update? It’s extremely late.

No idea. The navy site isn't working for me...

[Hayabusa]

It's already a cat 4

02W SURIGAE 210416 1800 10.0N 132.1E WPAC 115 943

Other link for ATCF:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... ector_file

[StormTracker89]

Where is the JTWC’s 18z best track update? It’s extremely late.

No idea. The navy site isn't working for me...

If I may ask, what Navy site are you using?

[Iceresistance]

Where is the JTWC’s 18z best track update? It’s extremely late.

No idea. The navy site isn't working for me...

If I may ask, what Navy site are you using?

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

[Hayabusa]

It's already a cat 4

02W SURIGAE 210416 1800 10.0N 132.1E WPAC 115 943

Other link for ATCF:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... ector_file

Latest

WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TY 02W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 6 NM EYE OBSERVED IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KTS, HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (RJTD), T6.0 (PGTW), AND T6.5
(KNES). OF NOTE, PGTW OBSERVED AN INSTANTANEOUS DATA T OF 6.5, BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHTLY LOWER ESTIMATE BASED ON AN OBSERVED WEAKNESS
OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EYE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE OF T5.9 (112 KTS) AND A 161713Z SATCON
OF 121KTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE 34- AND 50-KT
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 161255Z ASCAT-C DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR. AROUND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW
AS IT ENTERS THE COL. DURING THIS TIME, THE STR TO THE EAST IS
FORECAST TO BUILD AND TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE,
DRIVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 24, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KTS. AFTERWARDS,
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE IT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, THE ECMWF AND
GFS TRACK SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER, THE JGSM, UKMET, AND UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
BE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE VARIATION IN MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 02W WILL TURN TO A NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 120, TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR POSITIONED
TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE AFTER TAU
72. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENING TO 90 KTS BY TAU
120. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 535 NM AT TAU 120. OF NOTE, THE ECMWF
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BRING THE SYSTEM OVER LUZON BY TAU 120 DESPITE
HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. BASED
ON THIS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[aspen]

IR imagery suggests there is some kind of eyewall replacement going on. Assuming something like a sneaky batch of dry air doesn’t cripple the core, Surigae could resume intensification while the environment remains favorable.

[Kingarabian]

[mrbagyo]

It's now starting to gain some latitude

[JW-_-]

Whilst the anticyclone is anchored to the NW. Can't see a safe ots get out passage myself.
https://imgur.com/CXcL444

[TorSkk]

Nice new burst wrapping around the eye

[mrbagyo]

Early Visible loop

[JW-_-]

cinnamon roll

[InfernoFlameCat]

WHAT JUST HAPPENED!
This thing went crazy. Still rapidly intensifying as seen with the massive bursts of convection. Has the dreaded western band of powerful TCs like Iota and Hayian.