ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Imagine if this has a eye feature already . . .


That escalated very quickly!

[InfernoFlameCat]

The dry slot reminds me of an Rfd with the new convection becoming a new mesocyclone next to the waning old meso. Beautiful.

[SFLcane]

Buckle up!

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1410328076819566594

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave might help the NHC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 97L.INVEST,

[Iceresistance]

latest microwave might help the NHC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 97L.INVEST,

https://i.ibb.co/MVjHHxh/Capture.png

Is that an eye feature already??

[kevin]

Most recent water vapor loop:

[wxman57]

Remember Gonzalo last year? Models (and NHC) forecasting it to cross in the Caribbean as a hurricane, but it dissipated as it reached the islands. A model forecast of a strong storm by the GFS is no guarantee it will be a strong storm. No guarantee it will survive the strong easterly tradewinds in the eastern Caribbean.

[Hammy]

I'm a bit unhappy though as it looks like we're going to miss out on two June records by a day.

[presidentofyes12]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/DayCloudPhase/20211811940_GOES16-ABI-taw-DayCloudPhase-900x540.jpg

I think this is a tropical depression by now, it seems decently organized to me.

[Aric Dunn]

[InfernoFlameCat]

latest microwave might help the NHC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 97L.INVEST,

https://i.ibb.co/MVjHHxh/Capture.png

Is that an eye feature already??

No because it is not stacked, it’s at the low level(eyes tend to begin at the mid level or upper level, and it’s not concentric. However it most certainly could be a precursor of one. Whoever said this might have to become a hurricane to be named might end up being right

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.ibb.co/RNBk2RV/Capture.png

It has the classic S shape of developing systems. Beautiful

[AlphaToOmega]

Remember Gonzalo last year? Models (and NHC) forecasting it to cross in the Caribbean as a hurricane, but it dissipated as it reached the islands. A model forecast of a strong storm by the GFS is no guarantee it will be a strong storm. No guarantee it will survive the strong easterly tradewinds in the eastern Caribbean.

What did HWRF say about Gonzalo (2020)?

[SFLcane]

latest microwave might help the NHC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 97L.INVEST,

https://i.ibb.co/MVjHHxh/Capture.png

Nice bands, not much of a core yet.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Remember Gonzalo last year? Models (and NHC) forecasting it to cross in the Caribbean as a hurricane, but it dissipated as it reached the islands. A model forecast of a strong storm by the GFS is no guarantee it will be a strong storm. No guarantee it will survive the strong easterly tradewinds in the eastern Caribbean.

Keep in mind Gonzalo was a much much smaller system than this is and therefore much more susceptible to dry air and shear than 97L which will most likely laugh off said shear.

[KingLucarius]

Remember Gonzalo last year? Models (and NHC) forecasting it to cross in the Caribbean as a hurricane, but it dissipated as it reached the islands. A model forecast of a strong storm by the GFS is no guarantee it will be a strong storm. No guarantee it will survive the strong easterly tradewinds in the eastern Caribbean.

I'm not too sure that's the best comparison in this case, at least personally. Gonzalo was very small and, as a result, more vulnerable to the dry air that surrounded it. This system is larger and more robust; meaning it likely won't have too much of an issue regarding that imo

[Kingarabian]

https://i.ibb.co/RNBk2RV/Capture.png

That band to its west looks intense enough to produce TS winds. Holy dry air though.

[aspen]

Remember Gonzalo last year? Models (and NHC) forecasting it to cross in the Caribbean as a hurricane, but it dissipated as it reached the islands. A model forecast of a strong storm by the GFS is no guarantee it will be a strong storm. No guarantee it will survive the strong easterly tradewinds in the eastern Caribbean.

What did HWRF say about Gonzalo (2020)?

The HWRF also got it to Cat 3 status, but as we all saw, it only peaked as a strong TS (although I think recon might’ve found a hurricane if they went out during its peak intensity). Gonzalo was a tiny TC, so if Elsa ends up larger and stronger, it would have a better chance of surviving.

[SFLcane]

Definitely hope ASCAT hits….

[wxman57]

Remember Gonzalo last year? Models (and NHC) forecasting it to cross in the Caribbean as a hurricane, but it dissipated as it reached the islands. A model forecast of a strong storm by the GFS is no guarantee it will be a strong storm. No guarantee it will survive the strong easterly tradewinds in the eastern Caribbean.

What did HWRF say about Gonzalo (2020)?

I'm fairly sure it strengthened it into a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean. Somehow, I lost my folder of 2020 data, including the HWRF plots, though.