ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

Think there’s a good chance the forecast strength will be upgraded, so I hope no one is taking this lightly. Once the storm can get consolidated, models will be able to forecast it better. On top of that, storm is pretty small, so it won’t take much effort to rapidly strengthen if it makes it north of the islands.

One thing to also keep in mind is that this storm is small enough that Hispaniola may not do as much damage as one might anticipate. I think it's around the same size as Laura, so if the storm is still somewhat weak crossing over the mountains, it may not dissipate.

[Blown Away]

I’m thinking we could see a center shift to the N or NE towards the deepest convection if hot towers don’t start firing over what I think is the MLC. What time is recon scheduled to head out tomorrow?

At 4:30 AM and will be plane from NOAA.

NHC has PTC6 crossing 15.4N at 2am, IMO it's going to cross that latitude much earlier.

[Category5Kaiju]

Think there’s a good chance the forecast strength will be upgraded, so I hope no one is taking this lightly. Once the storm can get consolidated, models will be able to forecast it better. On top of that, storm is pretty small, so it won’t take much effort to rapidly strengthen if it makes it north of the islands.

One thing to also keep in mind is that this storm is small enough that Hispaniola may not do as much damage as one might anticipate. I think it's around the same size as Laura, so if the storm is still somewhat weak crossing over the mountains, it may not dissipate.

If anything like we saw with some recent storms (Laura and Elsa included), hitting the tall mountains there could actually force the system to become better structured due to the friction. Now of course there’s a reason why people call Hispaniola the “shredder” and I know different storms are different, but I have seen and heard of enough cases of land interaction not really doing much to completely wither away a storm, notorious examples being David, Georges, the 1900 Galveston storm, Matthew, and of course Laura and Elsa.

[toad strangler]

Think there’s a good chance the forecast strength will be upgraded, so I hope no one is taking this lightly. Once the storm can get consolidated, models will be able to forecast it better. On top of that, storm is pretty small, so it won’t take much effort to rapidly strengthen if it makes it north of the islands.

One thing to also keep in mind is that this storm is small enough that Hispaniola may not do as much damage as one might anticipate. I think it's around the same size as Laura, so if the storm is still somewhat weak crossing over the mountains, it may not dissipate.

If anything like we saw with some recent storms (Laura and Elsa included), hitting the tall mountains there could actually force the system to become better structured due to the friction. Now of course there’s a reason why people call Hispaniola the “shredder” and I know different storms are different, but I have seen and heard of enough cases of land interaction not really doing much to completely wither away a storm, notorious examples being David, Georges, the 1900 Galveston storm, Matthew, and of course Laura and Elsa.

It's not just Hispaniola that carries the "Shredder" name. It's all three of the big islands. That's the full shredder chain!

[galaxy401]

Yeah that track does look slightly concerning but it is still early August so I'm not expecting a storm that strong overall. There's also the possibility it just goes through Hispaniola and all of Cuba too.

If anything like we saw with some recent storms (Laura and Elsa included), hitting the tall mountains there could actually force the system to become better structured due to the friction. Now of course there’s a reason why people call Hispaniola the “shredder” and I know different storms are different, but I have seen and heard of enough cases of land interaction not really doing much to completely wither away a storm, notorious examples being David, Georges, the 1900 Galveston storm, Matthew, and of course Laura and Elsa.

It's really a "shredder" when it comes to strong hurricanes since many of them never recover from crossing those mountains. Weaker storms like Laura and Elsa fare better.

[StPeteMike]

Think there’s a good chance the forecast strength will be upgraded, so I hope no one is taking this lightly. Once the storm can get consolidated, models will be able to forecast it better. On top of that, storm is pretty small, so it won’t take much effort to rapidly strengthen if it makes it north of the islands.

One thing to also keep in mind is that this storm is small enough that Hispaniola may not do as much damage as one might anticipate. I think it's around the same size as Laura, so if the storm is still somewhat weak crossing over the mountains, it may not dissipate.

Thing with Laura, and even Elsa, was that both storms didn’t have a center that was well together. Elsa was a little better in this description, but you can’t disrupt what’s not there. Elsa had multiple smaller vortices fighting to be the dominant one and land interaction wasn’t going to have an impact on a storm that could easily just replace one smaller vort with another. Laura also had this, but not at the same magnitude.

If future Fred gets itself together before Hispaniola and then crashes into the island, the island will do much more damage because there’s an established circulation to disrupt with no other vort to come in from behind and replace it.

[toad strangler]

Yeah that track does look slightly concerning but it is still early August so I'm not expecting a storm that strong overall. There's also the possibility it just goes through Hispaniola and all of Cuba too.

If anything like we saw with some recent storms (Laura and Elsa included), hitting the tall mountains there could actually force the system to become better structured due to the friction. Now of course there’s a reason why people call Hispaniola the “shredder” and I know different storms are different, but I have seen and heard of enough cases of land interaction not really doing much to completely wither away a storm, notorious examples being David, Georges, the 1900 Galveston storm, Matthew, and of course Laura and Elsa.

It's really a "shredder" when it comes to strong hurricanes since many of them never recover from crossing those mountains. Weaker storms like Laura and Elsa fare better.

Agree, also huge factors are speed and angle of approach. This particular track may carry SIX over just one island and at a decent clip although the new 18z GFS is attracted to Cuba as well.

[AlphaToOmega]

06L, a post-tropical cyclone

779
WTNT61 KNHC 092213
TCUAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Six Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
615 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[toad strangler]

This taken from Weather Tigers update just released and posted by @SFLcane in the Indicators thread. Look at the daily ACE spike on about the date this system may be nearby FL
That's a little eerie. There are only 6 signals higher since 1900.

[Keldeo1997]

Its to far out but I will say that if this thing gets into the Gulf intact and the upper levels are good then you better watch out. It will likely track over a nasty loop current which could be a explosive intensification nightmare.

[Blown Away]

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/ohc_aQG3_latest_natl.gif

Its to far out but I will say that if this thing gets into the Gulf intact and the environment is decent then you better watch out. It will likely track over a nasty loop current which could be a explosive intensification nightmare.

SST’s are a big factor in Hurricane development, but upper level conditions are just as important, so you can’t assume if a system just passes over the loop current it automatically means explosive development.

[toad strangler]

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/ohc_aQG3_latest_natl.gif

Its to far out but I will say that if this thing gets into the Gulf intact and the environment is decent then you better watch out. It will likely track over a nasty loop current which could be a explosive intensification nightmare.

SST’s are a big factor in Hurricane development, but upper level conditions are just as important, so you can’t assume if a system just passes over the loop current it automatically means explosive development.

YUP, there ain't no "I" in team!

[GCANE]

Entraining high TPW air quickly

[AtlanticWind]

Convection again on northeast, could see a reformation or the system pulled some toward that flare up

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located just east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN

[abajan]

In regards to future-Fred, perhaps the most ominous sign for S FL is its historical connection to Wilma.

I don't know what this means.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/uq7noaMwLfg[/youtube]

[Category5Kaiju]

In regards to future-Fred, perhaps the most ominous sign for S FL is its historical connection to Wilma.

I don't know what this means.

https://youtu.be/uq7noaMwLfg

Yes indeed I was too young to see the height of that show, but I wish I could have

[toad strangler]

Morales throws big shade

 http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1424883735196049409

[weeniepatrol]

Morales throws big shade

http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1424883735196049409?s=20

Lol.

[AubreyStorm]

Morales throws big shade

http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1424883735196049409?s=20

Morales always have problems with NHC, always!