ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jcmzhou]

Webcam at the SpaceX Boca Chica site close to Brownsville

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhJRzQsLZGg

So what is this supposed to be showing? I know they could be in the bull's eye.

Here’s a better one on South Padre
https://islagrand.com/live-cam/

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thank goodness for the shear. Otherwise I could easily see Nicholas RI just like snapping my fingers.

[Iceresistance]

Left of the Image is Nicholas

[wxman57]

Broad, elongated low center, as it was this morning. Not doing anything unexpected.

[SoupBone]

Broad, elongated low center, as it was this morning. Not doing anything unexpected.

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

[ajurcat]

Earlier we were at a Home Depot in NW Houston and it was basically empty. We were totally surprised.

This is because of Ida, not Nicholas. Lots of family bought stuff from here and transported it to Louisiana.

Do you mean no customers or no merchandise when you say "basically empty"?

Customer wise.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The band to the north of Nicholas could possibly offset the shear by disrupting the air current imparted by the trough over Louisiana. such intense convection can really be a shield for the tropical system. But, 40knots of shear is very intense.

[grapealcoholic]

The band to the north of Nicholas could possibly offset the shear by disrupting the air current imparted by the trough over Louisiana. such intense convection can really be a shield for the tropical system. But, 40knots of shear is very intense.

On WV you can see the ULL over mexico backing off west

[wxman57]

Broad, elongated low center, as it was this morning. Not doing anything unexpected.

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

Oh, it may well stall. When it does, it may be an exposed swirl with heavy rain WAY to the east in Louisiana. Models indicate strong west wind aloft over TX. I don't think we'll see a "core dump". Squalls may train over some areas, dumping more rain, but I don't think this is Harvey Part II.

[Garnetcat5]

Broad, elongated low center, as it was this morning. Not doing anything unexpected.

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

Can anyone post precipitation amounts ? During Harvey the local Mets said 15 inches and the models said 60. So does anyone know the models for them ?

[SoupBone]

Broad, elongated low center, as it was this morning. Not doing anything unexpected.

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

Oh, it may well stall. When it does, it may be an exposed swirl with heavy rain WAY to the east in Louisiana. Models indicate strong west wind aloft over TX. I don't think we'll see a "core dump". Squalls may train over some areas, dumping more rain, but I don't think this is Harvey Part II.

Thank you. This thing needs to be the damn re-incarnation of Don, then poofed again.

[tolakram]

Broad, elongated low center, as it was this morning. Not doing anything unexpected.

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

Can anyone post precipitation amounts ? During Harvey the local Mets said 15 inches and the models said 60. So does anyone know the models for them ?

Check the models thread. There's a big disagreement, with the GFS saying 10 and the Euro saying 40. In Harvey with a couple of days out we had good agreement so I'm not sure I buy a single models doomsday scenario. I would be prepared though.

[aspen]

Left of the Image is Nicholas

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8shr8d7a0068c9541e79.gif

I’m surprised shear is that high. SHIPS says 15 kt and the NHC says the UL environment will become more favorable starting tonight (before becoming hostile again early Tuesday). We could see upshear center reformations overnight.

[underthwx]

Broad, elongated low center, as it was this morning. Not doing anything unexpected.

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

Oh, it may well stall. When it does, it may be an exposed swirl with heavy rain WAY to the east in Louisiana. Models indicate strong west wind aloft over TX. I don't think we'll see a "core dump". Squalls may train over some areas, dumping more rain, but I don't think this is Harvey Part II.

So....some isolated heavier precip amounts, as with any tropical system...more the exception than the rule?...

[loon]

Broad, elongated low center, as it was this morning. Not doing anything unexpected.

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

Oh, it may well stall. When it does, it may be an exposed swirl with heavy rain WAY to the east in Louisiana. Models indicate strong west wind aloft over TX. I don't think we'll see a "core dump". Squalls may train over some areas, dumping more rain, but I don't think this is Harvey Part II.

Glad to hear this, some of the model runs were starting to get a little worrisome. Glad we can put those to bed.

[Clearcloudz]

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

Can anyone post precipitation amounts ? During Harvey the local Mets said 15 inches and the models said 60. So does anyone know the models for them ?

Check the models thread. There's a big disagreement, with the GFS saying 10 and the Euro saying 40. In Harvey with a couple of days out we had good agreement so I'm not sure I buy a single models doomsday scenario. I would be prepared though.

GFS for some reason keeps showing a strong system when sheer seems to be strong as the moment keeping the storm disorganized. But lets see what the 00Z shows once all the Recon data gets put in. I just hate this disagreement in modeling so close to the event it creates more confusion more than anything.

[wxman57]

Levi has a new video that covers Nicholas pretty well. Not an extremely favorable environment in its path.

[SoupBone]

What are your thoughts on the battle between the GFS and Euro? One has it stalling, the other zips it on out. Much different outcomes as far as rain goes.

Oh, it may well stall. When it does, it may be an exposed swirl with heavy rain WAY to the east in Louisiana. Models indicate strong west wind aloft over TX. I don't think we'll see a "core dump". Squalls may train over some areas, dumping more rain, but I don't think this is Harvey Part II.

Glad to hear this, some of the model runs were starting to get a little worrisome. Glad we can put those to bed.

I'm still paying attention to the Euro, but it definitely appears to be on the extreme end of rainfall like it was earlier today.

[tropicwatch]

If the center stays in the area of where the HH's are currently finding it. I have my doubts of it actually making it to Texas. That would possibly allow extreme southern Texas to get some rain.

[grapealcoholic]

Looking at WV, and actually I don't think shear is that high at all right now. Probably <10 kts