ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Yep not surprised they raised it to Cat 3. With it's speed and current strengthening, unfortunately Ida looks to be another on the growing list of Gulf storms making landfall near their peak intensity...

[Comradez]

Pretty strong case to be made Ida looks better right now than Katrina did at landfall.

Yes, almost certainly Ida will be stronger at landfall than Katrina was at landfall. That, plus the fact that New Orleans may get a closer brush with the nasty side of Ida (versus a brush with Katrina's weaker side), has people rightly worried.

Of course, Ida will come nowhere close to rivalling Katrina's peak intensity. Katrina wasn't just a cat 5. She was a hypercane, a cat 6 if that category existed, and probably destined to stay in the top 10 of all-time Atlantic hurricane intensity for a long time to come.

[wx98]

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Compared to Katrina it is MUCH smaller.

Are you sure????

Katrina:

https://i.ibb.co/F0bX54L/03-F8-C805-489-A-4540-8-B00-D24-A1-BB5-E661.gif

Ida:

https://i.ibb.co/D1cWWcR/3373010-F-FBBF-4-EEF-8-A13-0-F8-A2-C368-E26.jpg

Yes I’m sure. Even based on the images you posted you can easily tell it is smaller. And unless the wind field has recently grown by 2.5 times, it is smaller as well.

[weeniepatrol]

9/4/2

[supercane4867]

...... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING THIS MORNING...
1:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29
Location: 27.6°N 88.7°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[IsabelaWeather]

I doubt Ida can make it to cat 5. Not because there isn't enough time, but because the CDO would have to cool to levels that Ida has never reached so far. I think organization and coverage of the CDO will steadily improve and get Ida to at least 140 mph, but you need solid rings of -80C cold-dark-grey CDO to get to cat 5, and I just don't see the potential for that on exhibit.

Just an FYI, storms at this latitude dont look as impressive as you might think. This is because the tropopause is much lower.

Here is a link of katrina at near or at max strength. With a pressure under 910mb IIRC

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/25/hurricane-katrina-in-10-terrifying-yet-awe-inspiring-images/

[Teban54]

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Just a reminder though. She is about to reach an area of water that is warmer than even the Gulf Loop

https://twitter.com/SouthernShortys/status/1431137911206989845?s=20

Note that water near the coast has lower OHC despite higher surface temperatures. Likely won't be too much of an issue for the fast-moving Ida, but when it struggled to RI earlier in the day, some people pointed to the low OHC (despite high SSTs) as one possible cause.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Major Hurricane Ida

9 - 4 - 2

Recon about to make the pass into the NE quad.

[supercane4867]

IR presentation improving by the minute

[Keldeo1997]

[skyline385]

NE pass coming up, wouldnt be surprised if this one is at 105 kt already

[Craters]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/vnhZH41.gif

Wow. That wobble is more like an orbit.

[wx98]

Based on current heading it is going straight for Lafourche Parish/Port Fourchon. Grand Isle as well but it’s technically Jefferson Parish.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at the map of recon data, it looks like hurricane force winds extend out like 80 miles on that NE side. Am I interpreting that correctly?

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431851576214245381

[Comradez]

Huh, yeah, surprising that Katrina only had a ring of -70C to -75C CDO at max intensity. I guess what made Katrina so strong at her peak was the sheer size of the CDO and the perfect stadium-like structure of the eyewall.

Who knows, maybe Ida could get into the 920s in 12 hours. The ring of -70C to -75C CDO is taking shape...

And is it just me, or has Ida's forward speed slowed quite a bit all of a sudden?...

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like another AF plane about to take off

[Nederlander]

Compared to Katrina it is MUCH smaller.

Are you sure????

Katrina:

https://i.ibb.co/F0bX54L/03-F8-C805-489-A-4540-8-B00-D24-A1-BB5-E661.gif

Ida:

https://i.ibb.co/D1cWWcR/3373010-F-FBBF-4-EEF-8-A13-0-F8-A2-C368-E26.jpg

Yes I’m sure. Even based on the images you posted you can easily tell it is smaller. And unless the wind field has recently grown by 2.5 times, it is smaller as well.

I can do the math for you if I cared enough… not sure how you can make such a statement. I realize “MUCH” and “easily” are subjective words, but they are about the same size in the same place.

[wx98]

Looks like another AF plane about to take off

Hopefully they can proceed without malfunction!

[Stormgodess]

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Just a reminder though. She is about to reach an area of water that is warmer than even the Gulf Loop

https://twitter.com/SouthernShortys/status/1431137911206989845?s=20

Note that water near the coast has lower OHC despite higher surface temperatures. Likely won't be too much of an issue for the fast-moving Ida, but when it struggled to RI earlier in the day, some people pointed to the low OHC (despite high SSTs) as one possible cause.

How fast is she moving, its something I keep meaning to check on, but with prepping , and LITERALLY I slipped off a wet ladder today and got hit in the head by a 2x4... I keep forgetting to check!