ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

A long time poster on here posted on our local forum the latest euro and has it scraping by Port Fourchon to the west and heading nnw thru timbalier bay. Most importantly shows crazy wind gust of 120+ coming right through Gonzales.

[Supersoaker]

So... anybody leaving the forums tonight, or do you have better things to do with your Saturday night than watch meteorological history unfold?

I'm definitely...trying...to stay awake...

Lol but really I won't be asleep long if at all

[skyline385]

With the 133 kt FL winds, the 115 SFMR, despite being flagged, is probably correct.

I was thinking that as well.

The NHC might decide that its correct looking at the FL winds, lets see what their update brings.

[IsabelaWeather]

If katrina were 10 degress south it would have looks much more like Haiyan.

Haiyan was much stronger than Katrina was.

Katrina wasn't the strongest the GOM has ever had to offer either.

Dude, where did I say that? And Hayian was stronger, but it wasnt because of the CDO.

[supercane4867]

Won't be done strengthening anytime soon. CAT5 is a distinct probability

[Highteeld]

E-R-I

Extreme rapid intensification. This is it.

[ncskywarn]

12mb drop between two recon passes??? That's Iota level.

I
That equates to about a 138 miles per hour the surface Which the NHC would round off to 140 if they pull the trigger.

No, those are flight level winds. Actual winds look to be around 110-115 knots.

They usually use point 9 as the formula from flight level to surface Which would equate to 119.7 knots=138 mph rounded up to 140

[wx98]

Might have to pull an all nighter for this one. I've never done that for a TC but this is a special case

I remember being on this board very late during Patricia back before I joined. This isn’t quite that level but still hard to sleep.

[Sanibel]

Probably found the true center of a trochoidal wobble with that good 940 reading...Could be bombing...

[imetrice]

Holy freaking crap this thing is bombing. +13C eye temp on ADT.

What he said. When people wake up in the morning, they'll be surprised.

[sponger]

No words. Can we Federalize Southern LA now, or do we have to wait for the superdome toilets to overflow?

[Yellow Evan]

The eye warming is as sudden as the pressure drops and wind spikes.

[Teban54]

Would they put a special advisory out 2 hours before the scheduled? But I agree, that supports 115 kt.

They have done it before with Delta:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE DELTA IS
NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

Update 20 minutes later:

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[sponger]

No words. Can we Federalize Southern LA now, or do we have to wait for the superdome toilets to overflow?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Like I was saying...water temps support a cat 5.

Its not done yet

And yes this will be absolutely catastrophic

[Kingarabian]

Yeah this is the worst case scenario. Looks like it's on way to Cat.5

[Hurrilurker]

Cold cloud tops fully wrapped, eye still a bit ragged though.

[kassi]

A long time poster posted on our local forum the latest euro and has it scraping by Port Fourchon to the west and heading nnw thru timbalier bay. Most importantly shows crazy wind gust of 120+ coming right through Gonzales.

Did you evacuate?

[Keldeo1997]

The Loop current does it again

[EquusStorm]

I've been watching the tropics since 2000 (well, on and off til 2004) and there have been rather few recon moments that sent a chill down my spine as much as this one has. This is mortifying Ladies and gents, this is gonna be a rough ride