ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[PavelGaborik]

This convection bubbling around the eye reminds me of Michael.

Unfortunately unless my eyes are deceiving me, Ida looks to be quite a bit larger.

[TallahasseeMan]

When's the next recon? Right now if it's 3 hours, they're going to miss a lot.

Recon has just entered the gulf. probably about an hour or more.

[drewschmaltz]

Anyone familiar with LA? Forecasted landfall vs Katrina. How is it potentially different (for better or worse)?

Due to the long time that Katrina sustained MH winds its storm surge was pretty much unparalleled with anything else in the history of the Atlantic so it's near-impossible for any other storm to reach those values. However, don't get me wrong when the only storm you can somewhat compare values to is Katrina then you know that something bad is gonna happen. Many areas along the coast will probably see 10 - 15 ft surge. This will probably have stronger LF winds than Katrina.

Thanks!

To clarify, I am seeking differences in landfall locations and not storm differences.

[kassi]

When's the next recon? Right now if it's 3 hours, they're going to miss a lot.

One was scheduled to depart at 1:15am CDT if I recall correctly.

[supercane4867]

What's weird is, the eye is looking a little ragged, and yet the cold convection around the eyewall is looking more vicious than ever. Could that just be some overshooting cloudtops from the eyewall obscuring the true eye on infrared satellite?

There are multiple mesovortices rotating within the eyewall's diameter (common feature for intense tropical systems), which creates the illusion the center is ragged or elongated. This is far from the case though, and if we look underneath the upper-levels (i.e., using radar imagery) we can see these mesovortices features. Impressive, even with radar attenuation.

https://i.postimg.cc/WpfBWBmS/radarloop-2.gif

For example the mesovortices inside Michael's eyewall were so intense that they once severely distorted the shape of the eye on radar(looks like a cat!)

[PavelGaborik]

Anyone familiar with LA? Forecasted landfall vs Katrina. How is it potentially different (for better or worse)?

Due to the long time that Katrina sustained MH winds its storm surge was pretty much unparalleled with anything else in the history of the Atlantic so it's near-impossible for any other storm to reach those values. However, don't get me wrong when the only storm you can somewhat compare values to is Katrina then you know that something bad is gonna happen. Many areas along the coast will probably see 10 - 15 ft surge. This will probably have stronger LF winds than Katrina.

Not to take things off topic but wasn't Ike significantly larger than Katrina?

[wx98]

Anyone familiar with LA? Forecasted landfall vs Katrina. How is it potentially different (for better or worse)?

Katrina hit Plaquemines and went due north to MS east of New Orleans. Coming in to the SW, I would think surge would get pushed up the canals and Lake Borgne and toward New Orleans city, but then again that also happened with Katrina. Areas west and southwest of New Orleans will get it way worse than back then.

[ElectricStorm]

Recon's on the way I'm thinking they find around 120-125kts/~944mb

[Kingarabian]

TXNT25 KNES 290632
TCSNTL

A. 09L (IDA)

B. 29/0531Z

C. 27.5N

D. 88.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 5.0. FOR AN
EYE THAT IS OW AND SURROUNDED BY B, THE EADJ IS +0.5, RESULTING IN A DT
OF 5.5. THE MET IS 6.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 6.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

SAB what.

WOW lol

[USTropics]

Anyone familiar with LA? Forecasted landfall vs Katrina. How is it potentially different (for better or worse)?

Katrina underwent multiple eyewall replacement cycles. This expanded the COC, and broadened the wind field. While the exact wind speeds measured were high end category 3, the hurricane force wind field radius extended nearly 120 miles. An expanded wind field creates a catastrophic storm surge event, which we saw with Katrina (places as far away as Alabama experienced surge inundation close to 13 feet, a record I believe since 1917 that still stands). Ida will not have that expansive wind field of hurricane force winds that Katrina did, but what we are seeing occurring is Ida will have a swath of hurricane force winds that will surpass Katrina in strength. Locations that are impacted by the core of Ida, particularly by the NE quadrant, will experience devastating wind speeds and surge inundation (although not at the storm surge heights we saw with Katrina).

[Dean4Storms]

Has to be at least 4 vortices swinging around at the eye wall.

[MBryant]

I
That equates to about a 138 miles per hour the surface Which the NHC would round off to 140 if they pull the trigger.

No, those are flight level winds. Actual winds look to be around 110-115 knots.

They usually use point 9 as the formula from flight level to surface Which would equate to 119.7 knots=138 mph rounded up to 140

This is the number I was wondering is too high for a rapidly intensifying storm. Perhaps in this situation, something like .8 or .85 may be more accurate. But hey, I'm just an amateur who's been through too many storms since 2005.

ps Pot of coffee on, but I'm up early, not up late.

[skyline385]

Michael before landfall looked pretty much just like Ida with a ragged eye getting tossed around. You could also see the hexagonal shape before landfall from the mesovortices...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDO21IVITSk

[PTPatrick]

Turn my back for a few hours to party and sure enough, the expected RI has finally occurred. Sorry for folks in the path. This does indeed look bad. Thankfully all of my folks near the water have moved to high ground today. This all the sudden feels fast too. I had been thinking they could roll out early tomorrow if needed but now we are looking at approximately grand isle landfall by around lunch…as opposed to late evening. I guess that’s more the eastward model shift than forward speed change.

Always felt this could be a tricky surge event east of Biloxi but I would not be amazed to see 7+ materialize in Jackson county, given eastward shift in the 0z model guidance and ongoing strengthening and expanding wind field. I doubt they will change surge forecasts at this point and people should have gotten out of those vulnerable areas regardless. I know this is far west storm from say, pascagoula and it’s not as big, but Betsy landfall in a similar area caused many surge problems in Mississippi, including flooding of my grandmas home all the way over at the AL border. It had more water in George and Camille and 1947 , and was inundated and destroyed in Katrina. Hoping the water just stays low enough that way to avoid a mess with some ground level outbuildings and other property we have there. But it’s just stuff, and the only home left is on stilts . The good news for Mississippi is post Katrina, it has at least somewhat been rebuilt in such a way that 10 ft surge in most areas will not be completely catastrophic. Thoughts are with all those in the path tonight.

[PavelGaborik]

Recon's on the way I'm thinking they find around 120-125kts/~944mb

I'll go 948 115 KTS.

[dexterlabio]

I expected Ida to do this sooner but I never doubted that she will flirt with Cat5 intensity just because the recipe for a Cat5 is present in the gulf. This might be a little bullish but I believe that Ida has a higher ceiling than Laura's, and even Michael's.

[Highteeld]

Picking up about 118 knots at 25,000 feet using GR in the NE eyewall...

[Landy]

Looks like TEAL73 is turning around... must be having issues which feels much too common with this storm.

When is next recon supposed to depart?

[skyline385]

Looks like TEAL73 is turning around... must be having issues which feels much too common with this storm.

When is next recon supposed to depart?

So we are without recon for how long then? Thats not good news for a landfalling Cat 4/5

[ElectricStorm]

Recon's on the way I'm thinking they find around 120-125kts/~944mb

Well looks like recon's turning around yet again which is unfortunate so this prediction is no longer valid.

Since there's no recon, there's no use in me staying up any longer. I'm pretty dang terrified of what this thing might look like when I wake up...