WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Iceresistance]

WHAT JUST HAPPENED!
This thing went crazy. Still rapidly intensifying as seen with the massive bursts of convection. Has the dreaded western band of powerful TCs like Iota and Hayian.

Don't forget Goni, Dorian, & Eta . . . They were monsters too . . .

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/UvURiCq.jpg

Looks like an EWRC/eyewall meld. You can see a ring in the center of the big eyewall that seems to be the earlier eyewall, which produced the tiny pinhole-like eye seen earlier.

[Kingarabian]

WHAT JUST HAPPENED!
This thing went crazy. Still rapidly intensifying as seen with the massive bursts of convection. Has the dreaded western band of powerful TCs like Iota and Hayian.

Don't forget Goni, Dorian, & Eta . . . They were monsters too . . .

In terms of TC intensity, the only true beasts listed in these two quotes are Haiyan and Dorian lol. The rest are aight compared to the true WPAC and EPAC power. But I don't wanna go further off topic

[InfernoFlameCat]

WHAT JUST HAPPENED!
This thing went crazy. Still rapidly intensifying as seen with the massive bursts of convection. Has the dreaded western band of powerful TCs like Iota and Hayian.

Don't forget Goni, Dorian, & Eta . . . They were monsters too . . .

Dorian took time
Eta yeah blew up

[JW-_-]

https://imgur.com/c8fdyfJ
Just posted as a comparison with the next model thickness heights run. Hanging out for the 18z ec to roll.

[Hayabusa]

18Z is back to eastern solution it seems...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Lets keep it that way

[JW-_-]

18Z is back to eastern solution it seems...
https://i.imgur.com/obrazq7.png

You got that early I'm still waiting. Next update expected at: 10:46 AM, in 0h 18m 56s

[JW-_-]

Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWF
Updated 1h 3m ago (ref 18Z)
Next update expected at: 04:50 PM, in 5h 55m 44s
Update interval: 6 - 7 hrs

[Hayabusa]

Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWF
Updated 1h 3m ago (ref 18Z)
Next update expected at: 04:50 PM, in 5h 55m 44s
Update interval: 6 - 7 hrs
Reference time: 2021-04-16T18:00:00Z
https://i.imgur.com/eOiBQsr.png

What forecast hour is that timestamp? the free hres data I get is only up to 90 hour.

[Iceresistance]

Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWF
Updated 1h 3m ago (ref 18Z)
Next update expected at: 04:50 PM, in 5h 55m 44s
Update interval: 6 - 7 hrs
Reference time: 2021-04-16T18:00:00Z
https://i.imgur.com/eOiBQsr.png

What forecast hour is that timestamp? the free hres data I get is only up to 90 hour.

Appears to be around Hour 123 or 120 . . .

[Hayabusa]

JMA update, now down to 935 mb.

TY2102(Surigae)
Issued at 2021/04/17 00:50 UTC
Analisys at 04/17 00 UTC
Category TY
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center Position N10°40′(10.7°)
E131°5′(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE165km(90NM)
30-kt wind area S650km(350NM)
N430km(230NM)

[aspen]

Perhaps the appearance on IR is from dry air and not eyewall dynamics.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AnthonyMweat ... 8133020674

Edit: okay it’s probably an EWRC
https://mobile.twitter.com/StormsEdgeWx ... 3963836417

[Hayabusa]

Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWF
Updated 1h 3m ago (ref 18Z)
Next update expected at: 04:50 PM, in 5h 55m 44s
Update interval: 6 - 7 hrs
Reference time: 2021-04-16T18:00:00Z
https://i.imgur.com/eOiBQsr.png

What forecast hour is that timestamp? the free hres data I get is only up to 90 hour.

Appears to be around Hour 123 or 120 . . .

Right, I guess I was wrong in extrapolating because at the end of the 90 hour run it looks like it's preparing to go east, EPS 18Z data is coming soon, I'll plot to see the ensembles and control run.

[JW-_-]

Note yellow tag above ecmwf premium. Really should not have to justify myself.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 170043

A. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 17/0000Z

C. 10.69N

D. 131.12E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ELIAS

[euro6208]

OHC gets more favorable in the next 48 hours.

[euro6208]

HWRF explodes to Cat 5.

[Hayabusa]

18Z, the control run did landfall, rest of ensembles almost same with 12Z

[Hayabusa]

https://i.imgur.com/dXHt7MO.png

Note yellow tag above ecmwf premium. Really should not have to justify myself.

You are misunderstanding something, of course I knew you are paying, I was just asking what is the forecast hour of that timestamp since your screenshot doesn't show it.