ATL: SAM - Models

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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#341 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:31 pm

Looks like it misses the islands but most of the models are showing a strong hurricane near the islands at some point so this could be a problem
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#342 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:32 pm

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GFS 18z+186... Major cane passing just N of the Caribbean, large SW shift at this point from 12z...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#343 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:32 pm

aspen wrote:

Where can I find the hi-res Euro runs?


Pivotal Weather also has the High-Res Euro runs . . .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#344 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:33 pm

Teban54 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:18z GFS is a good jog further SW than 12z but the 500mb map screams easy re-curve before affecting even the N Lesser Antilles. PArt of larger trend though? We shall see.

skyline385 wrote:The ridge is just beginning to build and its already so much SW, good chance of a CONUS hit this run probably

The duality of S2K.


Pretty sure my comment about this particular run will be correct.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#345 Postby blp » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:34 pm

The low is cutting off heading SW and the ridge is building in. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#346 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:34 pm

PV shredder inbound

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#347 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:35 pm

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SW Trending...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#348 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:35 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#349 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:36 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:When the HWRF gets bullish, Eh. When the ECMWF gets bullish, :crazyeyes:


You may have heard this:

GFS goes crazy: don't expect it to be really crazy.

Euro goes crazy: Get Ready! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#350 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:36 pm

Have to see where this ridge builds back - may be overdone over 200 hours. But it's getting interesting from run to run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#351 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:37 pm

Storm is clearing a path to CONUS. Looks determined to close off that trough

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#352 Postby blp » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:40 pm

It could escape on this run but the trend is very eye opening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#353 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:41 pm

It looks like Eric Webb's concerned tweet in July about the Canadian Ridge being anomalously strong and potentially a problem in ASO for the landmasses may have had some validity to it... :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#354 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:42 pm

Not going to be a good run for Bermuda...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#355 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:43 pm


How is that 1019mb “low” even a low pressure area? Shouldn’t it be marked with an H instead?

Also the blue PV ring around 98L looks very conducive for intensification…until the trough erodes it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#356 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:43 pm

In the end, GFS still safely recurves, yet is also hundreds of miles SW of previous run. So, everybody's right and everybody's wrong. Also, we're talking 7-10 days out, so we still know nothing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#357 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:45 pm

The ridge was a bit weaker this run because of the low coming in...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#358 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:46 pm

If that cutoff to its SW is any stronger it probably gets to CONUS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#359 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:47 pm

aspen wrote:

How is that 1019mb “low” even a low pressure area? Shouldn’t it be marked with an H instead?

Also the blue PV ring around 98L looks very conducive for intensification…until the trough erodes it.


Strange . . . I've once spotted a 1012 MB 'H' on the HWRF model, & I was like "What?"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#360 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:48 pm

While it recurves from the CONUS, 18z GFS is almost 500 miles further SW than 12z at +246 and looks like it'll almost directly hit Bermuda in this run.

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