ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Friction with land is definetely helping Elsa this afternoon, it came ashore in a swampy terrain, Cienaga de Zapata.

[eastcoastFL]

Friction with land is definetely helping Elsa this afternoon, it came ashore in a swampy terrain, Cienaga de Zapata.

https://i.imgur.com/8fjqxWr.gif

I was looking at radar and and the end of the loop it looked like it was further south than when the loop began. Then I realized it was just storms building up to the south throughout the loop.

[Nimbus]

This storm is starting to look a bit less sloppy on visible. Landfall and it’s the best it’s looked in a day.

I've heard some people debate this, but I wonder if the storm making landfall over Cuba could "snap" the MLC and LLC together, thereby actually benefiting the system rather than hurting it in the longer term?

Land interaction could kill off a small LLC leaving a robust mid level circulation to drill back down to the surface.
That usually takes 24 hours though, and shear from the ULL should be an issue by then. Forward speed is going to be cumulative with the winds on the east side of the circulation so depending on how close to the west coast of Florida this tracks, we could see power outages which is always difficult.

[Stormybajan]

Friction with land is definetely helping Elsa this afternoon, it came ashore in a swampy terrain, Cienaga de Zapata.

https://i.imgur.com/8fjqxWr.gif

Oof..maybe the euro is sniffing this out that land interaction may help the storm to be more aligned..its a wait and see thing tonight when the center re-emerges

[aspen]

Lmao this is the best Elsa has looked since peak intensity and it’s right over land, I’m done.

[Category5Kaiju]

Watch as diffluence helps Elsa pull a Zeta or Michael despite the shear, and then Elsa becomes subject to the brown ocean effect over Florida. If that happens, I will eat all of the hats and shoes in my closet, no matter how old or dirty they are

[eastcoastFL]

Could be my eyes but seems a little east of the track. Not by much but a bit

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the LLC slow down has allowed the MLC to get better aligned over it through the atmosphere, like a top that was wobbling starting to stand up.

[floridasun78]

saw white blot but no thunder???

[DestinHurricane]

when is next recon?

[Iceresistance]

Lmao this is the best Elsa has looked since peak intensity and it’s right over land, I’m done.

I Know! Claudette in June was VERY SIMILAR to Allison & now Elsa.

[Hurricaneman]

Could be my eyes but seems a little east of the track. Not by much but a bit

But that 10 to 15 miles could mean the difference between landfall at Cedar Key or Tampa

[Jr0d]

Lmao this is the best Elsa has looked since peak intensity and it’s right over land, I’m done.

Just woke up and was thinking the same thing. Glad Cuba is there or we could see her RI. Fortunately she will only have 90 miles of water (perhaps 100 since she wont go in a straight line) before getting me. Not enough time to go too crazy...though a lot can happen in 6 hours.

[GeneratorPower]

If this thing wraps up because of its interaction with Cuban swamp then hits FL Straits and the shear is manageable, look out. Could get bad fast.

[eastcoastFL]

Could be my eyes but seems a little east of the track. Not by much but a bit

But that 10 to 15 miles could mean the difference between landfall at Cedar Key or Tampa

Did you notice it as well?

[eastcoastFL]

ELSA MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 81.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast
from Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River including Tampa
Bay.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida west coast has been
extended northward and westward to the Ochlockonee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of Craig Key
and Florida Bay has been discontinued.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara,
Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

[eastcoastFL]

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Satellite and radar imagery along with surface synoptic
observations indicate that the tropical cyclone moved inland over
west-central Cuba around 1800 UTC, accompanied by very heavy rains.
Assuming that some weakening has occurred due to the influence of
land, the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Elsa this
evening after the center moves into the Florida Straits and will
provide a better assessment of the system's intensity.

The storm appears to be continuing on its northwestward track and
the initial motion estimate is 315/12 kt. There are no changes to
the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Elsa
should move between the western portion of a mid-level subtropical
ridge extending westward from the Atlantic and a broad low pressure
area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast for the next couple
of days. Later in the forecast period, the system is likely to
accelerate northeastward and move from the eastern United States
to near Atlantic Canada. The NHC track forecast over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is practically identical to the one from the
previous advisory, and a little to the left of the previous one
over the eastern United States and the Atlantic. This is in good
agreement with the now tightly-clustered track model guidance.

Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into
the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit
intensification. The official intensity forecast is slightly above
the latest model consensus, IVCN. Around 96 hours, the global
models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so
the forecast shows extratropical transition at that time.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through
tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over
Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and
southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida.
Mid- to late-week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina,
North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated
flash and urban flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward
across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast
through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 24.1N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 26.1N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 08/0600Z 32.8N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 41.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 49.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[wxman57]

Elsa looks more impressive now than when it was classified as a hurricane (looked pretty bad, then). Could well get to 50-55 kts in SE Gulf before the shear increases. That could be the MLC that's showing up well on satellite, though. NHC has the center west of the convection. Both centers will need to vertically align to reach 50-55 kts.

However, here's the LLC position as per NHC's advisory. West of that MLC:

[Steve]

Elsa looks more impressive now than when it was classified as a hurricane (looked pretty bad, then). Could well get to 50-55 kts in SE Gulf before the shear increases. That could be the MLC that's showing up well on satellite, though. NHC has the center west of the convection.

That's what I was wondering and also if it might be a future place for focusing after this gets offshore in a few hours. I halfway expect lower spin to be out front as it seems to have been most of the system's developed life. Overnight and through maybe Wednesday should be the peak. We won't have to wait to long to see how it works out.

[Sal Collaziano]

It’s a little squally here in Wellington (Palm Beach County). I imagine that’s the most we’ll see from the far off clouds of this storm.