ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Recon showing the center is pretty much right along the coast between Havana and Matanza. little closer to havana.

also FL winds 50+kts along the coast.

Where are you finding this? I am not seeing any recent data.

[CronkPSU]

What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying over the next 36 hours?

very very low...might it get back to hurricane status, not high but it is possible but this will not increase 30 knots in the next 36 hours,not organized, too much shear, not enough time til landfall and more land interaction and other inhibiting factors

[catskillfire51]

[Aric Dunn]

Recon showing the center is pretty much right along the coast between Havana and Matanza. little closer to havana.

also FL winds 50+kts along the coast.

Where are you finding this? I am not seeing any recent data.

the header is coded wrong so most of the site don't see it.

but this one is working,

https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/mission/ELSA_AF301_1205A

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

Recon showing the center is pretty much right along the coast between Havana and Matanza. little closer to havana.

also FL winds 50+kts along the coast.

Where are you finding this? I am not seeing any recent data.

This is the last thing I saw


URNT15 KNHC 060136
AF301 1205A ELSA HDOB 18 20011120
012700 2313N 08112W 8432 01609 0153 +161 +130 143046 046 032 007 00
012730 2313N 08110W 8432 01609 0155 +156 +141 149047 048 033 006 00
012800 2313N 08109W 8429 01614 0153 +161 +144 153047 048 033 005 00
012830 2313N 08107W 8432 01613 0150 +170 +130 151048 049 034 002 00
012900 2314N 08106W 8424 01619 0150 +166 +133 152045 048 033 004 00
012930 2314N 08104W 8432 01614 0154 +164 +137 154045 046 035 002 00
013000 2314N 08102W 8430 01617 0157 +162 +140 159045 046 032 004 00
013030 2315N 08101W 8432 01614 0157 +165 +130 160047 047 077 015 03
013100 2315N 08059W 8430 01619 0160 +161 +134 161048 048 081 015 03
013130 2316N 08057W 8430 01618 0160 +162 +132 162047 048 /// /// 03
013200 2316N 08056W 8433 01619 0164 +160 +136 164046 047 /// /// 03
013230 2316N 08054W 8430 01623 0165 +160 +132 164044 045 035 001 03
013300 2317N 08052W 8431 01622 0164 +165 +129 163042 043 035 001 00
013330 2317N 08051W 8433 01620 0166 +162 +132 163042 042 032 003 00
013400 2317N 08049W 8430 01624 0168 +160 +133 165042 042 031 003 00
013430 2318N 08047W 8430 01625 0169 +156 +138 164042 043 030 004 00
013500 2318N 08046W 8432 01624 0172 +155 +137 167044 044 031 005 00
013530 2318N 08044W 8428 01628 0173 +155 +138 168043 044 031 004 00
013600 2319N 08042W 8430 01628 0175 +153 +140 170042 043 031 004 00
013630 2319N 08041W 8432 01627 0177 +149 +145 170041 042 032 002 00

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/z46ql4q.jpg

What site are you using?

[catskillfire51]

https://i.imgur.com/z46ql4q.jpg

What site are you using?

AllisonHousemaps

[tropicwatch]

The NHC site isn't even reporting up to date info.

[rigbyrigz]

The folks in the Models Forum, and the guys now on Weather Channel, are nitpicking over the shear aspects and the intensifying SHIPS & Euro models, (and HWRF nudging along) and without talking models any more than that, I wouldn't be surprised accordingly to see NHC at 11 PM discussion show it regaining Cat 1 up the road.

Not great news (especially depending on where u are) and I hope I'm wrong, but this Elsa is one crazy dizzy dame. Oops, can we say that in 2021?

[DestinHurricane]

The folks in the Models Forum, and the guys now on Weather Channel, are nitpicking over the shear aspects and the intensifying SHIPS & Euro models, (and HWRF nudging along) and without talking models and more than that, I wouldn't be surprised accordingly to see NHC at 11 PM discussion show it regaining Cat 1 up the road.

Not great news (especially depending on where u are) and I hope I'm wrong, but this Elsa is one crazy dizzy dame. Oops, can we say that in 2021?

highly doubt they put H on the cone, hurricane watches possible but i'd say unlikely.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1412230817087209473

[BAMA&TXLady]

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

There are a few of us here that have been around since the palm beach post forum days, late 90s...seen a whole bunch of discos and nhc tracks

I never post and lost my first ID/Password but I’ve been here for 10 years or so. Thanks for all the work you guys put into this.

[caneman]

The folks in the Models Forum, and the guys now on Weather Channel, are nitpicking over the shear aspects and the intensifying SHIPS & Euro models, (and HWRF nudging along) and without talking models and more than that, I wouldn't be surprised accordingly to see NHC at 11 PM discussion show it regaining Cat 1 up the road.

Not great news (especially depending on where u are) and I hope I'm wrong, but this Elsa is one crazy dizzy dame. Oops, can we say that in 2021?[/quo7te]
highly doubt they put H on the cone, hurricane watches possible but i'd say unlikely.

I'd give it a 50/50 shot. I've lived on the West coast of Florida since 1976 and I've seen storms in this area intensify with shear

[Hammy]

011230 2313N 08155W 8432 01569 0092 +180 +155 115036 042 055 014 00

[Aric Dunn]

Havana has switched to SW winds. so the LLC is somewhere offshore now. Very likely just south of that curved band.

the recon plane data has not updated in 45 minutes...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon showing the center is pretty much right along the coast between Havana and Matanza. little closer to havana.

also FL winds 50+kts along the coast.

Where are you finding this? I am not seeing any recent data.

the header is coded wrong so most of the site don't see it.

but this one is working,

https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/mission/ELSA_AF301_1205A

I will work on it now. The obs say 2001 rather than 2021, so my site rejects it as part of a quality control check that I need to find and temporarily change.

[caneman]

What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying over the next 36 hours?

very very low...might it get back to hurricane status, not high but it is possible but this will not increase 30 knots in the next 36 hours,not organized, too much shear, not enough time til landfall and more land interaction and other inhibiting factors

Plenty of time to get back to Cat. 1 status. There is no more land interaction.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1412222192054644771

[eastcoastFL]

The folks in the Models Forum, and the guys now on Weather Channel, are nitpicking over the shear aspects and the intensifying SHIPS & Euro models, (and HWRF nudging along) and without talking models and more than that, I wouldn't be surprised accordingly to see NHC at 11 PM discussion show it regaining Cat 1 up the road.

Not great news (especially depending on where u are) and I hope I'm wrong, but this Elsa is one crazy dizzy dame. Oops, can we say that in 2021?

highly doubt they put H on the cone, hurricane watches possible but i'd say unlikely.

Yah at most watches but even that I think they would hold until the morning and watch how she does over night in the straights.