ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1412233139339108355

[drezee]

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

There are a few of us here that have been around since the palm beach post forum days, late 90s...seen a whole bunch of discos and nhc tracks

I never post and lost my first ID/Password but I’ve been here for 10 years or so. Thanks for all the work you guys put into this.

I've been here since the Lowe's Storm97 days. I changed my name when we got official. I was cat5hurr...

[CronkPSU]

What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying over the next 36 hours?

very very low...might it get back to hurricane status, not high but it is possible but this will not increase 30 knots in the next 36 hours,not organized, too much shear, not enough time til landfall and more land interaction and other inhibiting factors

Plenty of time to get back to Cat. 1 status. There is no more land interaction.

right but the question was about rapid intensification and while the core might not hit land again for a day and a half the eastern side will be dealing with land interaction and taking away some energy (not a lot of course considering the swampy South Florida flat land but it is still not conducive to an RI cycle)

[eastcoastFL]

On IR and Radar it looks like convection died down as she started to hit water again….

[sikkar]

What's up with the annoying blob south Cuba? Does it have any significance on anything?

[Kazmit]

On IR and Radar it looks like convection died down as she started to hit water again….


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/91626943.gif?0.36606712384134354

Didn't expect anything else from Elsa...

[crimi481]

Flashback: I have lived in Englerwood since 1973. Yes Caneman - seen a few ramp up strong coming up the w coast.
I think Charlie increased 20-25 mph between K West and Punta Gorda. Forecast track was same as now - making a right just north of Tampa
YThen stalled -sniffed out Charlotte Harbor and made a right

[eastcoastFL]

What's up with the annoying blob south Cuba? Does it have any significance on anything?

Good question, reminds me of Isaias and his competing blobs

[eastcoastFL]

On IR and Radar it looks like convection died down as she started to hit water again….


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/91626943.gif?0.36606712384134354

Didn't expect anything else from Elsa...

Right? lol. It is very Elsa like to fizzle out in the Florida straights after thriving over Cuba

[Category5Kaiju]

On IR and Radar it looks like convection died down as she started to hit water again….


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/91626943.gif?0.36606712384134354

What the hell...it's like the antithesis of a regular TC, it loves land but when it hits water it simply hates that.

[ronjon]

Let's see what Elsa does when she fully emerges in SE GOM. Circulation looks robust on radar. Mets at the weather channel are hinting at possible CAT 1 according to models (Euro) and SW shear actually enhancing outflow. Both GFS and Euro showing Cedar Key landfall in their 18z runs early Wednesday morning.

[eastcoastFL]

[Vdogg]

On IR and Radar it looks like convection died down as she started to hit water again….


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/91626943.gif?0.36606712384134354

The convection died due to extended land interaction. If you notice there's convection blowing up around the LLC, that occurred once it hit water.

[Category5Kaiju]

Let's see what Elsa does when she fully emerges in SE GOM. Circulation looks robust on radar. Mets at the weather channel are hinting at possible CAT 1 according to models (Euro) and SW shear actually enhancing outflow. Both GFS and Euro showing Cedar Key landfall in their 18z runs early Wednesday morning.

Oh huh, that's interesting.

[HurricaneBelle]

Now that there's a storm in that location, it's time to remind everyone that it's the Florida *Straits*, not "straights", just think of the band (or the phrase) Dire Straits.

[hiflyer]

What's up with the annoying blob south Cuba? Does it have any significance on anything?

Very good question…it is a good size blob with ‘activity’. HWRF says she drags it up as a long tail. Think this is what went ‘under’ Jamaica and then never quite merged back.

[artist]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa had to hit Cuba to get back into shape lmao

[Aric Dunn]

Appears the center is just north Of havana now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Now that there's a storm in that location, it's time to remind everyone that it's the Florida *Straits*, not "straights", just think of the band (or the phrase) Dire Straits.

Thanks for straightening that up!