ATL: GRACE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC lashes the upper keys with a strengthening cyclone on its way to the GOM.


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[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, I know it's just one run and that future runs could very well something different, but I think this 12z is almost certainly enough to raise eyebrows and remind people that the climo is beginning to work in the Atlantic's favor as expected in a La Nina year.

[captainbarbossa19]

Well that GFS run will wake up a few people. Heading to Corpus Christi.

Yep. I think we may be about to have a VERY long week ahead.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC at 126 hours with 979mb in the SE GOM.


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[aspen]

Jeez the 12z runs really like the Gulf. First the ICON, then the GFS, and now the CMC have a system that survives Hispaniola, moves through the Keys, and intensifies in the Gulf in 5-8 days. Now let’s see if the Euro or HWRF hop on board, but due to the HWRF’s north bias, I don’t think the latter will.

[Jr0d]

If I can take anything from the latest GFS run is the chances of this recurving before Florida is nil. The only chance of it NOT having a significant impact on the CONUS is for it to go through the shredder of Hispaniola.

I have not seen any model showing this recurve.

[HurricaneFrances04]

NAVGEM also has a strong storm in the Gulf. Actually turns west while it's south of the Keys/over the north coast of Cuba.

[captainbarbossa19]

This setup is starting to remind me a little of last year with Marco and Laura.

[Category5Kaiju]

Based on these alone, assuming the atmopsheric conditions are favorable, thermodynamics is almost certainly not going to be a problem.

[SouthFLTropics]

Around 145 hours is where the GFS and the CMC diverge from each other…CMC seems to like the northern GOM while the GFS wants to stay on a western heading.


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[Shell Mound]

The 12Z HWRF (995 mb) is fully nine mb shallower than 06Z (986 mb) early tomorrow. Once again the HWRF is poorly handling Grace’s short-term evolution.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC, AL/MS line at 974mb.


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[Woofde]

The 12Z HWRF (995 mb) is fully nine mb shallower than 06Z (986 mb) early tomorrow. Once again the HWRF is poorly handling Grace’s short-term evolution.

Most models didn't even have this developing a few runs ago. The HWRF has done better than its peers on intensity thus far.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ocean/ohc/images/ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

Based on these alone, assuming the atmopsheric conditions are favorable, thermodynamics is almost certainly not going to be a problem.

I think the GFS shows Grace traversing the Gulf loop current.

[hurricane2025]

Cmc is never right

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is headed for certain death passing South of PR and en route to Hispaniola.


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[lsuhurricane]

For those harping on the GFS ensembles, they sure perked up on this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

WHOA … that’s a sharp contrast from 06z.


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[AutoPenalti]

Cmc is never right

Neither is any model past 48hrs.

[gatorcane]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021081412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.png

For those harping on the GFS ensembles, they sure perked up on this run.

Yes they have, loop below, some stronger ones into South Florida: