ATL: SAM - Models

[IcyTundra]

Bermuda barely avoids a direct hit as 98L passes to the west. Looks like 98L is starting to bend to the west as it passes by Bermuda.

[Keldeo1997]

This run might get ugly for New England

edit: nvm

[skyline385]

18z GFS is a good jog further SW than 12z but the 500mb map screams easy re-curve before affecting even the N Lesser Antilles. PArt of larger trend though? We shall see.

The ridge is just beginning to build and its already so much SW, good chance of a CONUS hit this run probably

The duality of S2K.

Pretty sure my comment about this particular run will be correct.

You win this round, just barely though

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS from hours 120-258. Closer to the islands yes but that mid to upper-level low in the Bahamas is a major shield from it heading towards Florida or even the CONUS for that matter if that develops.

[Keldeo1997]

There's your west shift

[Category5Kaiju]

The 18Z GFS from hours 120-258. Closer to the islands yes but that mid to upper-level low in the Bahamas is a major shield from it heading towards Florida or even the CONUS for that matter if that develops.

https://i.postimg.cc/SKv3q2rN/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-258.gif

Wait, what the heck? Is that like even possible, for a ridge that strong over Canada to have this storm literally go northward through it?

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1440454032959496192

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That GFS run is whack. How does a storm manage to recurve right into a ridge? There's no obvious weakness that I see - just a stout ridge.



EDIT: Ninja'd by Wxtwitter

[skyline385]

lmao GFS is sending it SE now over the north Atlantic

[supercane4867]

Friendly reminder that neither climo nor the GFS can go against the rule of physics as much as they want to

[IcyTundra]

The solution the GFS shows isn't that far off for a potential New England landfall.

[sma10]

The 18Z GFS from hours 120-258. Closer to the islands yes but that mid to upper-level low in the Bahamas is a major shield from it heading towards Florida or even the CONUS for that matter if that develops.

https://i.postimg.cc/SKv3q2rN/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-258.gif

"If it develops" is right. The chances of that ULL sitting right there in that location in 240 hours is quite the longshot

[grapealcoholic]

Impressive ridging for +234 on an ensemble

[aspen]

18z HMON continues the trend of slower development, with 98L not attaining consistent TS winds until Saturday morning. It’s a lot further SW on this run as a result. We might start seeing some Maria-like tracks into the east Caribbean in future model runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Meanwhile, the 18z HWRF is nothing but crickets...

[IcyTundra]

Meanwhile, the 18z HWRF is nothing but crickets...

https://i.imgur.com/PRptQIG.png

Toss this HWRF run out has it near 5N in 72 HR it is near 10 N right now.

[aspen]

Meanwhile, the 18z HWRF is nothing but crickets...

https://i.imgur.com/PRptQIG.png

It gets stuck on one spot on the map. Toss this run out; it sometimes gets stuck (most often the HWRF-P).

[skyline385]

Meanwhile, the 18z HWRF is nothing but crickets...

https://i.imgur.com/PRptQIG.png

It gets stuck on one spot on the map. Toss this run out; it sometimes gets stuck (most often the HWRF-P).

Uhm isnt the HWRF-P (since P is Parent and not Parallel) the same as HWRF? The results are also the same for both...

[aspen]

Meanwhile, the 18z HWRF is nothing but crickets...

https://i.imgur.com/PRptQIG.png

It gets stuck on one spot on the map. Toss this run out; it sometimes gets stuck (most often the HWRF-P).

Uhm isnt the HWRF-P (afaik P is Parent and not Parallel) the same as HWRF?

Due to its wider field of view, it likes to get its focus stuck on whatever low pressure area happens to be even a tiny bit deeper than the disturbance it’s supposed to be focusing on. There’s been this low over central Africa that the HWRF-P has gotten stuck on for many early runs of Peter and 98L.

[skyline385]

It gets stuck on one spot on the map. Toss this run out; it sometimes gets stuck (most often the HWRF-P).

Uhm isnt the HWRF-P (afaik P is Parent and not Parallel) the same as HWRF?

Due to its wider field of view, it likes to get its focus stuck on whatever low pressure area happens to be even a tiny bit deeper than the disturbance it’s supposed to be focusing on. There’s been this low over central Africa that the HWRF-P has gotten stuck on for many early runs of Peter and 98L.

So its a different run of the HWRF then?