ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Let's see what Elsa does when she fully emerges in SE GOM. Circulation looks robust on radar. Mets at the weather channel are hinting at possible CAT 1 according to models (Euro) and SW shear actually enhancing outflow. Both GFS and Euro showing Cedar Key landfall in their 18z runs early Wednesday morning.

I think the shear is too much for this to make a run at a Cat1. Plus, before it even thinks about that it would have to rebuild much of its convection all over again. It's just not going to have much time, especially with the shear. If there was no shear, I'd give it a shot at a Cat 1....But it would have to get its act together at lightning speed for that to happen...

Storms that were supposed to weaken (or at least not be able to continue to strengthen) due to shear while approaching the Gulf Coast since 2018:

Michael
Laura
Sally
Delta
Zeta

Well Delta did weaken before landfall on the Gulf Coast though that was largely due to cooler waters.

[Michele B]

They shifted the cone a few miles east again at 11pm

I was just about to post that!

Guy on WINK TV Ft. Myers said they shifted it 30 miles east.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh yeah, I remember tracking Michael. Not that I expect Elsa to RI at all of course, but it almost seems like Michael was a huge turning point in the way trackers like us see the potential of Gulf storms despite conditions being seemingly unfavorable for additional strengthening.

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video Update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WULaBG1Fmbc

[eastcoastFL]

Sand Key Wind 25kts gusting over 30kts right now

[eastcoastFL]

They shifted the cone a few miles east again at 11pm

I was just about to post that!

Guy on WINK TV Ft. Myers said they shifted it 30 miles east.

I noticed it moved barely a hair to the right at 5pm and this one was quite a bit more. 30 mile adjustments could mean a lot at this stage. Should be interesting tomorrow.

[MrJames]

Track shifted east at 11PM

[InfernoFlameCat]

DMAX will be near soon. If Elsa is going to RI it’s going to be then. Probably not going to RI though.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If that blob doesn’t go away it may increase southwesterly shear because it is moving air up and that’s lowering its pressure so it will fight Elsa a bit if it doesn’t die off soon.

[Steve]

DMAX will be near soon. If Elsa is going to RI it’s going to be then. Probably not going to RI though.

I don’t think so. Doesn’t mean it can’t get more well defined though.

[InfernoFlameCat]

DMAX will be near soon. If Elsa is going to RI it’s going to be then. Probably not going to RI though.

I don’t think so. Doesn’t mean it can’t get more well defined though.

I’d say ten% or less chance of RI. Very low chance yes.

[eastcoastFL]

If that blob doesn’t go away it may increase southwesterly shear because it is moving air up and that’s lowering its pressure so it will fight Elsa a bit if it doesn’t die off soon.

The blob looks angry about getting left behind

[Craters]

On IR and Radar it looks like convection died down as she started to hit water again….


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/91626943.gif?0.36606712384134354

Oh, thank God. I thought things were suddenly starting to make sense...

[caneman]

If that blob doesn’t go away it may increase southwesterly shear because it is moving air up and that’s lowering its pressure so it will fight Elsa a bit if it doesn’t die off soon.

The blob looks angry about getting left behind

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/22875536.gif?0.16552986176798445

I dont think it's getting left behind. As the storm wraps more it will likely get pulled into it.

[psyclone]

That east shift in the track is very significant for the nature coast down into pinellas county where we're back to a storm perilously close to the coast. ts wind probs at tampa are now 69%.

[AtlanticWind]

If that blob doesn’t go away it may increase southwesterly shear because it is moving air up and that’s lowering its pressure so it will fight Elsa a bit if it doesn’t die off soon.

The blob looks angry about getting left behind

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/22875536.gif?0.16552986176798445

Leave me here and I will form my own storm.

[Jr0d]

Shut down Schooner Wharf Bar in Key West early because of Elsa...some upset customers but most understand that we want to.be home before the worst gets here.

Business as usual tomorrow

[eastcoastFL]

If that blob doesn’t go away it may increase southwesterly shear because it is moving air up and that’s lowering its pressure so it will fight Elsa a bit if it doesn’t die off soon.

The blob looks angry about getting left behind

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/22875536.gif?0.16552986176798445

I dont think it's getting left behind. As the storm wraps more it will likely get pulled into it.

When you look at Cuban radar there’s still quite a bit more of Elsa left still south of Cuba so it will be interesting to see if she does drag that up with her

[HurricaneBelle]

That east shift in the track is very significant for the nature coast down into pinellas county where we're back to a storm perilously close to the coast. ts wind probs at tampa are now 69%.

that's not nice for us

[CrazyC83]

I've been largely missing in action as I have family here and I'm having to manage academic life as well (I can do one and post, but not both easily).