ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

We are now under a hurricane watch!!!

Who’s “we”?

[Kohlecane]

Just getting to work, I see they nudged the cone E. I was looking at satellite presentation and just cant see a NW jog more NNW if not N for the last few frames. wouldn't be surprised to see this make a shot at LF between Pasco County and Sarasota IMO.

[Kohlecane]

We are now under a hurricane watch!!!

Who’s “we”?

Robbielyn is in Hernando Co. I believe. I only know this cause I saw Brooksville in the info and I am originally from Spring Hill lol.

[Prosepro]

Just had an intense band in Key West...going yo be interesting to see what kind of winds were clocked. Looks like we still have more coming too.

42 mph gust in Key West. 50 mph gust at Smith Shoal Lighthouse which is closer to the LLC.

[Michele B]

We are now under a hurricane watch!!!

Who’s “we”?

Robbielyn is in Hernando Co. I believe. I only know this cause I saw Brooksville in the info and I am originally from Spring Hill lol.

Ok. Thanks. Trying to keep track of watches and warnings relative to my location.

[aspen]

Recon data on Tropical Tidbits is all messed up due to communication problems. Where even is the LLC, and what pressure did recon find?

Edit: turns out those were old flight. Nevermind.

[Orlando]

We are now under a hurricane watch!!!

Who’s “we”?

If you zoom out on this map, it shows the storm warnings:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Brook ... 82.3878709

[NDG]

Highest wind gusts in Key West so far this morning is 47 mph, pressures haven’t even fallen yet, a whopping 1013mb

[NAVAIDNICK]

We are now under a hurricane watch!!!

Who’s “we”?

Robbielyn is in Hernando Co. I believe. I only know this cause I saw Brooksville in the info and I am originally from Spring Hill lol.

The Hurricane Watch was issued from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River including Pinellas County and coastal areas of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties.

[wxman57]

Looks terrible on satellite. Weak LLC WNW of convection. Not even a 30kt sustained wind in Key West as it passed. Wall of dry air to the west is touching the center, and SW shear is on the increase. Not a recipe for strengthening, despite the wacky Euro prediction. May be a 40kt TS now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks terrible on satellite. Weak LLC WNW of convection. Not even a 30kt sustained wind in Key West as it passed. Wall of dry air to the west is touching the center, and SW shear is on the increase. Not a recipe for strengthening, despite the wacky Euro prediction. May be a 40kt TS now.

Thank you for your insights!
What maximum wind gusts will I get on Tampa Bay right on the Bay in St. Petersburg? 70 mph? Does 70 mph sustained lmean gusts to 85 mph for me today? Thank you!

[Category6]

After a squall or two came thru yesterday, it’s been dry here in Plantation (Broward County). In fact, the sun is out this morning and there’s a nice breeze. Doesn’t look like we are going to get much if any weather today.

[ColdMiser123]

As others have already mentioned, Elsa looks disorganized this morning. MLC is displaced to the east of the LLC, which is not conducive for any significant intensification.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, you can see that area of dry air over the Gulf getting drawn into the circulation of Elsa on WV imagery, throw in the shear and she might do good to even remain a TS before time over water runs out.

[ColdMiser123]

Looks terrible on satellite. Weak LLC WNW of convection. Not even a 30kt sustained wind in Key West as it passed. Wall of dry air to the west is touching the center, and SW shear is on the increase. Not a recipe for strengthening, despite the wacky Euro prediction. May be a 40kt TS now.

Plenty of 55-60 kt velocity bins showing up at ~1800 meters on the KBYX radar, which supports the current NHC intensity of 50 kt.

Pretty remarkable how disorganized a system can be to attain moderate TS strength versus how organized it has to become to attain minimal hurricane strength.

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic showing the low-level dry air and the center of Elsa (red dot). Limited convection now being stretched northward by increasing shear. This is not going to make a run at hurricane strength. Sustained in Tampa maybe 40 mph gusting 50-60 mph. Most likely a 35-40 kt TS now. Might not even have 40kt winds. Recon would help. Keys obs did not report above 28 kts sustained with gusts 43 kts.

[wxman57]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

[toad strangler]

FL E Coast should see some squalls from the looks of how sheard this system is.

[robbielyn]

Who’s “we”?

Robbielyn is in Hernando Co. I believe. I only know this cause I saw Brooksville in the info and I am originally from Spring Hill lol.

Ok. Thanks. Trying to keep track of watches and warnings relative to my location.

Sorry, from pinellas county to the big bend coastal areas. basically US 19 westward.

[Dean4Storms]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa10.JPG

Yea, half its core is about convection-less and dry air getting wrapped in, throw in the shear and don’t see how this strengthens at all unless both let up.