ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

While the LLC is taking a beating thunderstorms appear to continue to fill in on the east

[eastcoastFL]

Radar showed a 90mph wind gust(little dark blue blob) south of the radar site in keys west

Sand key reporting 46kts sustained 55kts gust

[wxman57]

Key West finally reporting TS winds - SE 37kts gusting 51kts.

[eastcoastFL]

Key West finally reporting TS winds - SE 37kts gusting 51kts.

On the NHC wind graphic it looks like key west is right on the edge of the TS wind field

[NDG]

For those wondering why the recon flights this morning, because of lightning nearby they can't fuel up the plane before taking off.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1412395860462387200

[NDG]

Key West finally reporting TS winds - SE 37kts gusting 51kts.

And with a surface pressure up now to 1014 mb, insane!

[SunnyThoughts]

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/

Southernmost Point WEbcam...Keywest

[cheezyWXguy]

On radar it looks pretty clear that the center is roughly 60 miles due west of key west. However, I am having a lot of trouble pinpointing a center on visible. It looks elongated, stretched east to west with no definitive center. Interesting that radar velocities seem to be coming up though

[underthwx]

Is there a new recon in Elsa atm?...I read the NHC discussion on the cyclone...they mentioned a new mission will be in Elsa sometime this morning, which may offer new intensity levels?..I wonder will they tweak the intensity up a bit?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa may strengthen by asymmetric convection where the convection pulls in air through the llc and wraps it around the eastern edge. That’s the only way she could do it now anyways. It’s already generating its winds in that fashion.

[eastcoastFL]

For those wondering why the recon flights this morning, because of lightning nearby they can't fuel up the plane before taking off.

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1412395860462387200

That’s kinda funny. They can fly directly into the worst hurricanes ever but can’t fuel up in a thunderstorm. They can refuel in the air but not on ground, I guess there’s no hangar where they are?

[LarryWx]

Fortunately, there’s no worry about anything even approaching rapid intensification as shear should prevent that. This remains nicely tilted. Good news for although this has always been expected/forecasted. The 12Z Euro yesterday getting her down into the 980s is going to look really bad barring something totally unforeseen.
But still plenty of weather associated with this is expected over much of the SE US. I’m not trying to downplay it. I’m just trying to downplay the Euro’s silliness.

This will go a long ways toward keeping away SE drought and the associated threat of a heatwave. That’s the best news about this.

[eastcoastFL]

Is there a new recon in Elsa atm?...I read the NHC discussion on the cyclone...they mentioned a new mission will be in Elsa sometime this morning, which may offer new intensity levels?..I wonder will they tweak the intensity up a bit?

They’re grounded for the moment due to lightning on the ground.

[wxman57]

Key West finally reporting TS winds - SE 37kts gusting 51kts.

On the NHC wind graphic it looks like key west is right on the edge of the TS wind field

They are right about in the radius of max winds. Unfortunately, they nor we can separate the TS winds from the center in our graphics. There is probably a small band of TS wind east of the center in that heavy squall area. Looks like max winds are about 40 kts, though one could argue that they could be as high as 45 kts somewhere in that squall.

[eastcoastFL]

Keys power reporting outages. Fpl reporting a couple hundred in Miami-Dade

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fortunately, there’s no worry about anything even approaching rapid intensification as shear should prevent that. This remains nicely tilted. Good news for although this has always been expected/forecasted. The 12Z Euro yesterday getting her down into the 980s is going to look really bad barring something totally unforeseen.
But still plenty of weather associated with this is expected over much of the SE US. I’m not trying to downplay it. I’m just trying to downplay the Euro’s silliness.

This will go a long ways toward keeping away SE drought and the associated threat of a heatwave. That’s the best news about this.

In the long run this may save lives by preventing heat deaths, the most deadly weather phenomenon on average in the US.

[eastcoastFL]

Key West finally reporting TS winds - SE 37kts gusting 51kts.

On the NHC wind graphic it looks like key west is right on the edge of the TS wind field

They are right about in the radius of max winds. Unfortunately, they nor we can separate the TS winds from the center in our graphics. There is probably a small band of TS wind east of the center in that heavy squall area. Looks like max winds are about 40 kts, though one could argue that they could be as high as 45 kts somewhere in that squall.

The only sustained winds I’ve seen so far over 40kts is sand key. They’ve been reporting for over an hour now sustained 40+kt winds

[wxman57]

Exposed center appears to be near 24.9N/83W. Getting more separation from the squall to the east.

[TallyTracker]

The max winds and worst weather are well removed from the surface center. Seem to be more lined up with the MLC.

[wxman57]

On the NHC wind graphic it looks like key west is right on the edge of the TS wind field

They are right about in the radius of max winds. Unfortunately, they nor we can separate the TS winds from the center in our graphics. There is probably a small band of TS wind east of the center in that heavy squall area. Looks like max winds are about 40 kts, though one could argue that they could be as high as 45 kts somewhere in that squall.

The only sustained winds I’ve seen so far over 40kts is sand key. They’ve been reporting for over an hour now sustained 40+kt winds

What is Sand Key's ICAO? (the 3-letter station identifier)