ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

It goes around me in Brevard…

Yeah, I have no idea why we are under a Tornado Watch in North Broward... its a gorgeous breezy day outside. I even have the windows open to let it flow through.

That’s gonna change soon
https://i.imgur.com/BiCpyYL.gif

Ugh... lol fair enough.. point taken. Better close up some windows in a bit.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I got to ask this again, What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying during its approach

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[jlauderdal]

Majority of the peninsula now under a tornado watch (including SE FL)

It goes around me in Brevard…

Yeah, I have no idea why we are under a Tornado Watch in North Broward... its a gorgeous breezy day outside. I even have the windows open to let it flow through.

It's a dense low overcast with a DP of 77, whats gorgeous about it?

[HurricaneBelle]

What time do we estimate Elsa will closest approach Pinellas?

Midnight-3AM

[brghteys1216]

Just had a breezy, heavy storm with lightning here in Davenport, Fl. Prob 30mph winds or stronger.

[psyclone]

Adrian is right, Tornado watches are up but it's been dry. No rain at all. The sun even peaks out at times.

It's the sun that provides the surface heating for svr updrafts later on. It's an essential component of svr production

[eastcoastFL]

Forecast to become a Hurricane

12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

Continuing the trend of storms intensifying at landfall

[HurricaneBelle]

Heavy band which looks to be intensifying incoming to Tampa, NW Hillsborough and Northern Pinellas/Pasco

[Mouton]

Looks like it has dropped 7mb is 3 hours. It is definitely on the intensification phase. Forward speed declining too which to me signals a move sooner to the NNE than suggested over the past 24 hours. Lastly, this is almost exactly the motion that Charlie had, albeit it was a cat 4, when it jumped the forecasts and moved to the NE. Elsa is farther north then was that storm at this point so it could visit the Jacksonville area, extreme right side of cone, than believed this AM. 90MPH storm not out of bounds now either IMO.

Never go to sleep with a storm to your south.

[NDG]

Unflagged strong winds at flight level and by SFMR
60 knots at surface looks good to me for now.

181330 2545N 08238W 8424 01561 0113 +133 +054 129068 069 057 029 00
181400 2544N 08239W 8429 01556 0111 +132 +053 124072 073 059 028 00

[MississippiWx]

Flight level winds are enough to upgrade to a 75mph hurricane. Thank goodness shear has limited Elsa. Otherwise, she would have been big trouble.

[artist]

Link to warnings as they come in
https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtge ... fl&wwa=all

[Category5Kaiju]

So I just got on break time from doing some volunteer work at a hospital and decided to check on dear Elsa, and my gosh. I never expected her to actually put effort into strengthening.

[AlphaToOmega]

I think we could see a 70-knot/75-knot hurricane next advisory.

[kevin]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

[AnnularCane]

So I just got on break time from doing some volunteer work at a hospital and decided to check on dear Elsa, and my gosh. I never expected her to actually put effort into strengthening.

I feel like nothing she does will surprise me anymore, but I may be wrong.

[AlphaToOmega]

So I just got on break time from doing some volunteer work at a hospital and decided to check on dear Elsa, and my gosh. I never expected her to actually put effort into strengthening.

Elsa has always put effort into strengthening. While it was approaching the Lesser Antilles, it was moving ~14 meters/second (~50 kilometers/hour or ~30 miles/hour). That fast wind speed would limit the storm's time over water, making intensification difficult. Despite that, Elsa intensified into a hurricane. It is clear that Elsa is one heck of a fighter.

[artist]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

Daily it has been reported on.

[Jr0d]

I got to ask this again, What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying during its approach

Nil, too much shear. The west side of the circulation has no convection.

[StormPyrate]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

In our area it’s odd the tropical storm warning ends at 7 pm, when closest pass is after midnight. Hurricane watches are up, but not warnings
We prepared for a cat 1