ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

It is looking good this morning (at first glance). Visible showing consolidation,after doing and arc, at around 8 to 10 north (11 n is the line between the cooler water).
Convection is deep and increasing.

So as long as it follows the models and turns due west or like some of the ensembles wobbles wsw as it completes the partial cyclonic loop.

image from 6;30 ( about 3 hours ago. )

[SFLcane]

It is looking good this morning (at first glance). Visible showing consolidation,after doing and arc, at around 8 to 10 north (11 n is the line between the cooler water).
Convection is deep and increasing.

So as long as it follows the models and turns due west or like some of the ensembles wobbles wsw as it completes the partial cyclonic loop.

image from 6;30 ( about 3 hours ago. )

https://i.ibb.co/zfj2z0m/Capture.png

Nah.., water just to cool.

Now down to 10-20 on 8am nhc two.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic
are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due
to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle
of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

[abajan]

We got played.
https://anchor.fm/hurricanetrack

[aspen]

I think we should watch to see if the wave survives past 40-50W. Once it gets west enough, SSTs won’t be an issue, and it could get into the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

It's common for waves to look very impressive right after moving offshore this time of year, only to steadily weaken as they progress westward across a hostile environment. Hopefully, the tropics will stay quiet for another 6 weeks or so.

[JRD]

Wave's caught between low SSTs and dry air to its north and insufficient coriolis in its current position and to its south.

[Stormybajan]

I mean..its not the WORST June AEW i've ever seen, theres still spin and convection associated with 95L how ever its gone too far north for development, that far east with those marginal SST. Unless 95L can somehow start a Westerly or WSW motion from now on until 40W then maybe theres the slightest chance for it but I dont see much development coming from this like the models show and others have said

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely not going to do anything in the short term, but it could be something to watch down the road perhaps.

[AnnularCane]

Looking at the TWO, I can't help wondering if they are in fact leaving open the possibility of development further down the road. It just seemed a little detailed, and they mention marginal conditions for the next several days (but what happens after that?).

Or maybe I'm just reading too much into it.

[Deshaunrob17]

Wouldn't this thing have trouble generating large-scale vorticity that close to the equator because it's almost Coriolis-free down there?

(If I knew what I was talking about, I would have phrased that much more professionally.)

I think it had a shot that far south because there are anomalous westerly winds which helping it with vorticity

[ElectricStorm]

Looking at the TWO, I can't help wondering if they are in fact leaving open the possibility of development further down the road. It just seemed a little detailed, and they mention marginal conditions for the next several days (but what happens after that?).

Or maybe I'm just reading too much into it.

I thought the same thing when I read it so you're not the only one lol

[Aric Dunn]

The tilt has shifted to a more favorable orientation. As long as convection continues this has a decent shot.

[BYG Jacob]

I know this is really far out there, guys, but, like, use your eyes, and you'll see an organizing wave.

[aspen]

The tilt has shifted to a more favorable orientation. As long as convection continues this has a decent shot.

https://i.ibb.co/hfRmW3Y/Capture.png

How recent is that?

[Aric Dunn]

The tilt has shifted to a more favorable orientation. As long as convection continues this has a decent shot.

https://i.ibb.co/hfRmW3Y/Capture.png

How recent is that?

11:30

4 hours after the one above.

[tolakram]

I don't see anything at the moment. Maybe at 10, -22 or so, maybe.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19844.705078125&y=9041.30322265625&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic
are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due
to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

[Craters]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic
are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due
to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

"Forecaster Papin"? Did Philippe get a position at the NHC?? Or is this just some kind of cosmic coincidence?

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic
are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due
to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

"Forecaster Papin"? Did Philippe get a position at the NHC?? Or is this just some kind of cosmic coincidence?

Yep that's him.