EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 07/14/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 58 66 72 74 68 64 60 57 58 59 59 59
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 58 66 72 74 68 64 60 57 58 59 59 59
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 54 57 58 55 51 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 3 2 0 6 6 5 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 0 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 78 76 53 40 47 38 150 78 175 233 251 238 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.7 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.1 26.2 25.8 26.0 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 154 152 140 133 126 123 125 121 123 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 66 66 68 66 62 57 53 51 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 14 15 14 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -16 -20 -25 -25 -26 -17 -13 -4 -3 8 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 9 17 31 38 34 23 36 17 -4 -30 -37 -20 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 900 971 1010 1024 1057 1136 1230 1332 1429 1552 1691 1849 2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 110.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 21 17 19 32 20 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 8. 8. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 28. 36. 42. 44. 38. 34. 30. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 110.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/14/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 5.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 27.0% 21.5% 20.2% 0.0% 19.7% 18.1% 16.1%
Logistic: 20.7% 56.4% 39.6% 29.2% 16.6% 38.3% 28.1% 17.5%
Bayesian: 0.6% 21.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 4.5% 0.8% 0.0%
Consensus: 10.8% 34.9% 21.4% 16.8% 5.7% 20.8% 15.7% 11.2%
DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 12.0% 14.0% 26.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/14/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

Almost a TC if not one already.

[cycloneye]

No upgrade at 8 PM PDT but surely will be at 2 AM PDT.

[Yellow Evan]

This is a tropical cyclone. Impressive curved band signature.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah pretty sure this is a TC.

[Yellow Evan]

Okay this is closed.

[Yellow Evan]

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
about 650 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization, and
recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation is
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions remain favorable
for continued development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later today while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF actually completely backs off on intensity for the first 72 hours before it rapidly intensifies it to end the run.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS brings this 993 mbar.



0z HWRF now peaks this as a Cat 2 in 4 days. Going to have stay as south as the HWRF models to achieve this.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 140600
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 14/0530Z

C. 13.8N

D. 112.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES AROUND A CSC THAT IS UNDER A LARGE COLD
OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 2.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET AND PT
AGREE WITH THE DT AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 2.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH CSC
CHARACTERISTICS AND LOCATION UNDER THE COLD OVERCAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Subtrop]

EP, 06, 2021071400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1106W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, TRANSITIONED, epA62021 to ep062021,

EP, 06, 2021071406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1122W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF much higher, now calling for a borderline hurricane. Eventually has this getting absorbed by the system to the east.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro strongest run yet. Gets it into the CPAC then starts a fujiwhara.

[Stormybajan]

Welcome to TD6

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 112.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed through Thursday night. A turn toward the west is expected
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
to be near hurricane strength by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better
organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In
addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has
become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are
initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is
set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the
next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease
in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a
mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens
the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the
guidance envelope close to the consensus models.

The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical
wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the
system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity
guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak
intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity
forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast
peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF. Simply to come back and look at it when it busts.
[url]https://i.imgur.com/v6erMFZ.gif[url]

It makes it annular for a while so it's not that crazy though.

HWRF might serve me with some crow later on. It's looking really good right now:

[Kingarabian]

[aspen]

This little guy looks really good for a TD and appears to be rapidly organizing. Should be at least a 45 kt TS for the next advisory. The next microwave pass should be interesting.

[cycloneye]

Up to 2.5.

A. 06E (NONAME)

B. 14/1130Z

C. 14.0N

D. 113.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING FOR A DT=2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON MET SINCE EXACT LOCATION OF LLCC IS UNCLEAR.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE