ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1425445594043138051

[Category5Kaiju]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

[SFLcane]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

I have vibes of Frances or Irma track with this one.

[Category5Kaiju]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

I have vibes of Frances or Irma track with this one.

Oh yeah for sure, also some bits of Georges sprinkled in too

[toad strangler]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

Gotta learn to separate that stuff from the science! There is nothing anyone of us can do to change the outcome of a storm except to prepare.

[aspen]

It’s quite apparent on visible imagery that 95L has a very elongated circulation, but it seems to be rotating to a more vertical orientation. Also, since one end is covered in convection and the other end is exposed, the dry end might weaken and die off, or the new orientation could help the circulation tighten.

[USVIKimmie]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

Once you've been following a while (not sure how long you've been reading) you'll learn who's bullish and who's words to take as gospel.

[Category5Kaiju]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

Gotta learn to separate that stuff from the science! There is nothing anyone of us can do to change the outcome of a storm except to prepare.

Yeah I know. All I am saying is that the paths I suppose remind me of those specific events in the past. It's also very hard to imagine that every year since 2015 has featured at least one very damaging and impactful cyclone, so it almost feels like with every new season we know we're going to see some very bad storm but we don't know where in the Atlantic it will impact exactly.

[Stormybajan]

Convection looks to be on the slight increase again right now as it heads west. I think whats a bit encouraging atleast right now is that models are aggressive with this as of yet. Maybe it will stay weak and traverse through the leewards as a strong wave

[Cpv17]

Convection looks to be on the slight increase again right now as it heads west. I think whats a bit encouraging atleast right now is that models are aggressive with this as of yet. Maybe it will stay weak and traverse through the leewards as a strong wave

If you’re wanting a storm to recurve then it would be better for it to strengthen where it’s at now vs further west.

[SFLcane]

Convection looks to be on the slight increase again right now as it heads west. I think whats a bit encouraging atleast right now is that models are aggressive with this as of yet. Maybe it will stay weak and traverse through the leewards as a strong wave

If you’re wanting a storm to recurve then it would be better for it to strengthen where it’s at now vs further west.

It’s not recurving anytime soon high pressure in place across central Atl will drive everything west.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[toad strangler]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

I have vibes of Frances or Irma track with this one.

What's worrisome for me is that by the time 95L gets to the western basin the dates will be full of historical strong storm anniversaries.

[aspen]

We have 4, maybe 5 days maximum, before 95L reaches the Lesser Antilles. I think it’ll probably develop sometime before then, but probably not for another two days because of its currently elongated circulation. Way too early to guess intensity when it hits the islands until we have a better defined center or a bona-dude TC. Hopefully the HWRF starts running soon, and hopefully it’ll have better success with 95L than Elsa or Fred.

[Hurrilurker]

I've got a feeling this is gonna be a long thread. Here we go...

We're already at 42 pages for Fred which just formed 3 hours ago. If 95L takes on a similar path as Fred (kind of likely at this point), we might jolly well surpass that by the time it comes close to PR.

It looks like it's tracking right in Fred's wake. Fred looks like it may barely hit hurricane status, if even that, however it looks poised to drop a lot of rain over at least 4-5 states. If 95 comes in a few days behind it with even more rain, mass flooding seems like a very large concern. There won't be time for everything from Fred to dry/drain before they get hit with more.

[SoupBone]

Why does Fred and this system have late-season Octoberish vibes?

[Category5Kaiju]

Also, if Fred struggles, wouldn't that mean this next system would have to deal with less upwelling from Fred or any associated shear from Fred? If anything I would think we would need to root for Fred to become somewhat strong so this next system would have less favorable conditions to work with down the line? I could be very wrong, but from my understanding this setup looks to be somewhat similar to the Laura/Marco situation?

[Cpv17]

Why does Fred and this system have late-season Octoberish vibes?

Because they could both hit Florida.

[Stormybajan]

Convection looks to be on the slight increase again right now as it heads west. I think whats a bit encouraging atleast right now is that models are aggressive with this as of yet. Maybe it will stay weak and traverse through the leewards as a strong wave

If you’re wanting a storm to recurve then it would be better for it to strengthen where it’s at now vs further west.

Yeah I agree with Sflcane here...if it were to strength I dont think it would be allowed to recurve far enough north to miss any land masses but with no well defined circulation for the next few days anything can still happen. Time to sit back and watch

[gatorcane]

Could be another one which the big islands interfere with, time will tell. Plenty of time to watch it. Clearly not very organized at all at the moment.