ATL: PETER - Models

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS heavily favors "da bears"/is more bearish vs the 0Z for the CONUS fwiw with no more than a couple of CONUS hits out of ~51 members. But that's still a long ways out and thus this is still up in the air even though the bears are favored as of now:

12Z EPS at 288 hours:

[AutoPenalti]

The 12Z EPS heavily favors "da bears"/is more bearish vs the 0Z for the CONUS fwiw with no more than a couple of CONUS hits out of ~51 members. But that's still a long ways out and thus this is still up in the air even though the bears are favored as of now:

12Z EPS at 288 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/STFvghI.png

It definitely bears watching.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1437509092717830153

[aspen]

18z ICON is stronger at 120hr than the prior two runs (988mb).

18z GFS continues to show 95L concentrating further south than the Euro.

[Blown Away]

18z ICON is stronger at 120hr than the prior two runs (988mb).

18z GFS continues to show 95L concentrating further south than the Euro.

18z GFS... Strong Cat 1/2 hurricane near 20/60 in @8-9 days... 18z slower and stronger

Fortunately this blocking ridge is NOWHERE to be found...

[kevin]

95L actually seems to be able to survive the PVS quite well in the 18z GFS despite being a pretty small system. 981 mbar at +228, while the 12z run already weakened it to a TD around the +200 mark.

[aspen]

The huge difference between the 12z run (a strong PVS that shreds Odette into a remnant low) and the 18z run (Hurricane Odette plowing through the PVS) just goes to show how tricky and volatile this forecast is, and how many solutions are still on the table in this early stage.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it'll recurve on this run but yeah the PVS has hardly any effect on it compared to earlier runs.

Still a bunch of possibilities with this system which is why I take model runs this far out with a massive dump truck load of salt

[tolakram]

Just like that the ULL situation is different. HA. Expect this to flip flop and drive us all crazy.

[tolakram]

Clear escape route on this run.

[ElectricStorm]

Might slam into Bermuda on this run

[tolakram]

[aspen]

Might slam into Bermuda on this run

Yep, they get hit with a Cat 3.

[kevin]

While the precise landfall accuracy of a single run of an invest at +276 hours is almost 0%, theoretically this run would be very bad for Bermuda. 95L clearly recurves from the US and Caribbean in this run, but almost directly passes over Bermuda. It also becomes very strong: peaks as a 960 mbar MH. Guess it shows just how uncertain 95L's future is right now as the 12z run dissipated it before it even reached the Caribbean and didn't get lower than 991 mbar.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles:

[SFLcane]

Lol What… we’re did the tutt go?

Looks like It's either fish or dissipation for this one I think.

[Teban54]

The huge difference between the 12z run (a strong PVS that shreds Odette into a remnant low) and the 18z run (Hurricane Odette plowing through the PVS) just goes to show how tricky and volatile this forecast is, and how many solutions are still on the table in this early stage.

This is why people should never jump onboard with just one model run.

[aspen]

Lol What… we’re did the tutt go?

Looks like It's either fish or dissipation for this one I think.

Fish, graveyard, or Bermuda.

Now watch that super-ridge steer this into Florida next run.

[Spacecoast]

Lol What… we’re did the tutt go?

At least everyone got chance to talk about big TUTTS for a few days.

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol What… we’re did the tutt go?

Looks like It's either fish or dissipation for this one I think.

Nah, it's either fish mega Cat 4, dissipation over Puerto Rico, or Cat 5 Andrew-like hit

But yeah, seriously, I have no clue. At this point I am going to just wait and see as the models are simply so erratic.