ATL: GRACE - Models

[gatorcane]

Euro rolling… 12Z Euro init:

[gatorcane]

Euro +24 hours:

[toad strangler]

Interestingly, the 12z Euro has remnants of Fred and Grace both at 1011 mb through 24 hours

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Euro loop from 0 to 48 hours:

[Ubuntwo]

By hour 111, the 12z HWRF is a full 4 degrees south of the 6z, and restrengthening.

[tolakram]

[AubreyStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 AUG 2021 Time : 172020 UTC
Lat : 16:21:29 N Lon : 58:36:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 994.2mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.8 3.8

[gatorcane]

Euro 72 hours 500MB:

[gatorcane]

Euro 0 to 96 hours:

[SouthFLTropics]

If 12z has shown us anything I think it’s that no matter what comes of Grace, it almost seems certain to be headed for the GOM.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[toad strangler]

12z Euro through 96 hrs much weaker than other 12z models .... hitting the FL Straits.

[tolakram]

It appears what's happening is that if Fred ramps up in intensity then Fred's outflow will blast Grace with shear approaching the Bahamas. If Fred stays weak, then Grace is in a much better environment.

[lsuhurricane]

Appears as though Euro will develop this, just not at the rate of the other models

[gatorcane]

Euro with further weakening by day 5:

[SouthFLTropics]

After last years shenanigans with the Euro, the fact that it isn’t showing much development isn’t much of a comfort.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[toad strangler]

12z EURO @120 hours POOFAGE of Grace

[IcyTundra]

In recent years the Euro doesn't strengthen storms much at all. Always seems like it is playing catchup when it comes to intensity.

[SoupBone]

At 144 hours, the Euro still doesn't see Grace.

[Blown Away]

If 12z has shown us anything I think it’s that no matter what comes of Grace, it almost seems certain to be headed for the GOM.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

IMO, 12z impact on GA weakens Grace and a shallower system moves farther W. If Grace moves N of the GA she will likely strengthen, gain latitude, and become a Bahamas/SFL problem, if not it might be a GOM issue. 12z models so far say GOM and Next 48-72 hours of Graces movement will be very important.