ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetroMike]

Rain amounts in Tampa Bay will be well below amounts that were predicted.

[ElectricStorm]

The eye feature on radar is improving again

[ZipWx]

Just returned from seaside, Atlantic, Miami Beach, hoping for a wind shift, so that I might make my daily " open water swim". No such luck. Wind still onshore, ESE.

Further Florida native seat of the pants observational 'evidence' that Elsa is indeed a small storm; certainly not wrapping a large air mass around a low pressure center. Far from it.

The storm is well North and West of my location...winds should be backing around from E to SE to South to SSW...no dice. No fun filled swim the Atlantic with storm energy and great squall visuals for me today.

Maybe manana.

Best wishes to all in Elsa's path. No matter how we categorize and call a storm, each tempest is power of God incredible, and I am amazed.

[tolakram]

Radar presentation goes from good, to bad, and back. Must be the center getting tugged around.

saved loop

[Frank P]

Looks like a slight jog to the NW last couple of radar frames…

[AtlanticWind]

WOW 135 years since a July landfall in this area.

http://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1412564953626824706?s=20

And 1886 was a bad year 10 hurricanes 4 majors and 6 US strikes

[USTropics]

While shear is not a strong as previously forecasted (previous GFS runs were on the range of 20-25 kts, seeing more ~15 knots of observed shear), the issue remains this continues to displace the MLC to the NE of the LLC:

GFS


HWRF


Because of this displacement, every time Elsa pulses up, the wind fields begins to expand. This expanded wind field then begins to draw in mid-level dry air (can see this in the images above). In addition, the westerly shear is aiding in this dry air entrainment. The lack of convection in the SW quadrant is not adequate enough to stave off against this dry air intrusion. Elsa will then need to wrap some convection to the SW, and we'll likely see another pulse up later this evening.

radar loop:

[rigbyrigz]

A little bit of a mea culpa... as a Math major, I'm noticing an error that influenced much of my earlier thinking. Seems the various sites - Accuweather,WeatherNET,TWC... that showed hourly weather (including sustained and gusts) were a bit "off" for places like Keaton Beach and Steinhatchee (Big Bend Taylor County Coastal spots)...

...2-3 of them were all showing (AT TONIGHT) midnight: conditions= 50 or sustained, with gusts to 70 or more.... then same well into the night, towards 5AM.

But that's 3 hours from now, and it's ONLY waddling along at 10-14 mph? And the winds and dirty stuff are not 200 miles North/NE of center.

So this DEVELOPING scenario (if accurate) must be 20 hours off. Which means there was more time (to prep or worry) than I thought. Sorry about that, anyway.

[LarryWx]

So...king euro after all?

lol. The Euro didn't even develop this storm in the first place.

Indeed, the Euro has already been disqualified from the competition for Elsa lol.

But seriously, it had it down to 982 mb on the 6Z and similar on one or even a couple of other runs. It is nowhere near 982 now. With the current near 998, the Euro still isn’t even close on the pressure as of at least now.

[johngaltfla]

anyone in Sarasota how is it there?

Getting a little frisky here.

Some of our new northern transplants are going to learn the hard way why we cut down the fruit and do "hurricane cuts" on our palm trees.

[artist]

195
URNT12 KNHC 070028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 07/00:02:00Z
B. 26.83 deg N 083.35 deg W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. 1002 mb
E. 025 deg 41 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 51 kt
I. 250 deg 4 nm 00:00:30Z
J. 078 deg 46 kt
K. 293 deg 23 nm 23:52:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 136 deg 20 nm 00:08:30Z
N. 207 deg 50 kt
O. 136 deg 22 nm 00:09:00Z
P. 15 C / 1527 m
Q. 22 C / 1446 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF302 1405A ELSA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 50 KT 136 / 22 NM 00:09:00Z
;

[ThetaE]

Radar presentation goes from good, to bad, and back. Must be the center getting tugged around.

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/5ZADSxH.gif

Looks to me on radar (what you posted, and especially on higher tilts on Radarscope) like the center has taken a decent NW jump. Unsure if this is a sign of organizing or a product of wind shear, but it could plausibly push landfall a bit further up the coast.

[LarryWx]

195
URNT12 KNHC 070028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 07/00:02:00Z
B. 26.83 deg N 083.35 deg W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. 1002 mb
E. 025 deg 41 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 51 kt
I. 250 deg 4 nm 00:00:30Z
J. 078 deg 46 kt
K. 293 deg 23 nm 23:52:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 136 deg 20 nm 00:08:30Z
N. 207 deg 50 kt
O. 136 deg 22 nm 00:09:00Z
P. 15 C / 1527 m
Q. 22 C / 1446 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF302 1405A ELSA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 50 KT 136 / 22 NM 00:09:00Z
;

So, only 50 knots and 1002 mb? So, was it a mistake to upgrade?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

195
URNT12 KNHC 070028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 07/00:02:00Z
B. 26.83 deg N 083.35 deg W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. 1002 mb
E. 025 deg 41 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 51 kt
I. 250 deg 4 nm 00:00:30Z
J. 078 deg 46 kt
K. 293 deg 23 nm 23:52:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 136 deg 20 nm 00:08:30Z
N. 207 deg 50 kt
O. 136 deg 22 nm 00:09:00Z
P. 15 C / 1527 m
Q. 22 C / 1446 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF302 1405A ELSA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 50 KT 136 / 22 NM 00:09:00Z
;

So, only 50 knots and 1002 mb? So, was it a mistake to upgrade?

I don't think so. As mentioned, you have to factor in the fact that there was a 40 knot SFMR for the lowest pressure, so the actual pressure is closer to 998mb. Recon appears not to have sampled the strongest winds yet either.

[galaxy401]

195
URNT12 KNHC 070028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 07/00:02:00Z
B. 26.83 deg N 083.35 deg W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. 1002 mb
E. 025 deg 41 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 51 kt
I. 250 deg 4 nm 00:00:30Z
J. 078 deg 46 kt
K. 293 deg 23 nm 23:52:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 136 deg 20 nm 00:08:30Z
N. 207 deg 50 kt
O. 136 deg 22 nm 00:09:00Z
P. 15 C / 1527 m
Q. 22 C / 1446 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF302 1405A ELSA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 50 KT 136 / 22 NM 00:09:00Z
;

So, only 50 knots and 1002 mb? So, was it a mistake to upgrade?

Recon missed the center by quite a bit it appears. It's more NE from that pass.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

195
URNT12 KNHC 070028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 07/00:02:00Z
B. 26.83 deg N 083.35 deg W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. 1002 mb
E. 025 deg 41 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 51 kt
I. 250 deg 4 nm 00:00:30Z
J. 078 deg 46 kt
K. 293 deg 23 nm 23:52:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 136 deg 20 nm 00:08:30Z
N. 207 deg 50 kt
O. 136 deg 22 nm 00:09:00Z
P. 15 C / 1527 m
Q. 22 C / 1446 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF302 1405A ELSA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 50 KT 136 / 22 NM 00:09:00Z
;

So, only 50 knots and 1002 mb? So, was it a mistake to upgrade?

They evaluated the convection-deficient west side. They recently observed 72kt FL and 51kt SFMR relatively far from center on the east side. Can't call it one way or another until all quads are investigated.

[ElectricStorm]

195
URNT12 KNHC 070028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 07/00:02:00Z
B. 26.83 deg N 083.35 deg W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. 1002 mb
E. 025 deg 41 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 51 kt
I. 250 deg 4 nm 00:00:30Z
J. 078 deg 46 kt
K. 293 deg 23 nm 23:52:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 136 deg 20 nm 00:08:30Z
N. 207 deg 50 kt
O. 136 deg 22 nm 00:09:00Z
P. 15 C / 1527 m
Q. 22 C / 1446 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF302 1405A ELSA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 50 KT 136 / 22 NM 00:09:00Z
;

So, only 50 knots and 1002 mb? So, was it a mistake to upgrade?

They've only sampled the S quads so far. NE quad should have higher winds

[ConvergenceZone]

Pressure's down a couple millibars since the 5 pm advisory.

This is going to sound crazy, but I have a CAT who HATES bad weather! I mean, I think he actually "feels it" when the barometric pressure drops. I know someone who gets a bad headache whenever there is a storm nearby, so I guess it's the same concept. Whenever weather moves in, such as this, and the baro drops, he meows piteously and pathetically. He's doing it now. We are due east of the storm, and here it is a hurricane now and it's at the closest point it will be to us. I just checked the baro pressure, and sure enough, it's lower now than it has been all day! In fact, a pretty good squall just blew up here. Since he just woke up and started yowling, I guess he "felt" that squall coming!

Sorry to be OT, but it's pretty funny.

Yep, animals can be excellent barometers.

[artist]

195
URNT12 KNHC 070028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 07/00:02:00Z
B. 26.83 deg N 083.35 deg W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. 1002 mb
E. 025 deg 41 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 51 kt
I. 250 deg 4 nm 00:00:30Z
J. 078 deg 46 kt
K. 293 deg 23 nm 23:52:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 136 deg 20 nm 00:08:30Z
N. 207 deg 50 kt
O. 136 deg 22 nm 00:09:00Z
P. 15 C / 1527 m
Q. 22 C / 1446 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF302 1405A ELSA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 50 KT 136 / 22 NM 00:09:00Z
;

So, only 50 knots and 1002 mb? So, was it a mistake to upgrade?

Last hdob is beginning to find higher winds to the east.

[hipshot]

Pressure's down a couple millibars since the 5 pm advisory.

This is going to sound crazy, but I have a CAT who HATES bad weather! I mean, I think he actually "feels it" when the barometric pressure drops. I know someone who gets a bad headache whenever there is a storm nearby, so I guess it's the same concept. Whenever weather moves in, such as this, and the baro drops, he meows piteously and pathetically. He's doing it now. We are due east of the storm, and here it is a hurricane now and it's at the closest point it will be to us. I just checked the baro pressure, and sure enough, it's lower now than it has been all day! In fact, a pretty good squall just blew up here. Since he just woke up and started yowling, I guess he "felt" that squall coming!

Sorry to be OT, but it's pretty funny.

I have a dog that hears the sirens warning if lightning in the area and hauls his butt to behind the bathroom door, it doesn't matter if it is lightning
or not.