wxman57 wrote:70-75kts again east of the center with 50kt SFMR. Not far east of those 50kt SFMR winds, coastal obs are blowing from the east at 15-20 kts. Strong winds at FL are from the south. I would wager that the 50kt SFMR wind may be closer to the wind gusts near the surface than sustained wind, with only 1002 mb pressure. This morning, the plane found around 50 kt SFMR wind near Key West when it was reporting sustained 28 kts gusting 45 kts.
The buoy 42023 about 50 nm west of me in KFMY recorded sustained winds over a 90 minute period of 45 kt, max 50 kt sustained with gusts past hurricane force, at only ~3m. 50 kt widespread gusts are likely across the Bay area just based off that data point if it doesn't weaken. I personally wouldn't be surprised if the hurricane warning doesn't verify, at least in gusts, in Pinellas county. They've had some surprisingly high wind reports in previous tropical cyclones. Colin and Hermine both had with gusts to 70 mph in Pinellas county, both either much weaker or further away.
