WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#441 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:43 am

CI now 7.9 = 167 knots
2021APR17 101000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.97 -84.71 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.51 ARCHER HIM-8 19.0

Goni reached a peak CI of 7.8
2020OCT31 184000 7.8 899.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.72 -82.75 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.71 -124.80 ARCHER HIM-8 24.4
2020OCT31 190000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.88 -82.73 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.70 -124.72 ARCHER HIM-8 24.5
2020OCT31 193000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.15 -82.69 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.71 -124.61 ARCHER HIM-8 24.6
2020OCT31 200000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -82.68 EYE 16 IR 54.0 13.68 -124.46 ARCHER HIM-8 24.7
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#442 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:49 am

Hayabusa wrote:CI now 7.9 = 167 knots
2021APR17 101000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.97 -84.71 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.51 ARCHER HIM-8 19.0

Goni reached a peak CI of 7.8
2020OCT31 184000 7.8 899.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.72 -82.75 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.71 -124.80 ARCHER HIM-8 24.4
2020OCT31 190000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.88 -82.73 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.70 -124.72 ARCHER HIM-8 24.5
2020OCT31 193000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.15 -82.69 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.71 -124.61 ARCHER HIM-8 24.6
2020OCT31 200000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -82.68 EYE 16 IR 54.0 13.68 -124.46 ARCHER HIM-8 24.7

This is begging for a 160-170 kt upgrade at 12z.

Watch, the JTWC is gonna give it 140 kt or 155 kt (7.0 or 7.5) at 12z, and by the time an EWRC is in full effect at 18z, then they’ll upgrade it to something more like its true peak.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#443 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:59 am

I think it's pretty safe to say this is probably the strongest April typhoon on record now, regardless of what JTWC's estimate is
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#444 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:00 am

This is madness.
Image

Faraji, Niran, Habana, and now Surigae...and it’s only mid April. So many incredibly impressive storms and so much time left in the year.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#445 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:07 am

Daytime loop

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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#446 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:12 am

raw 8.1 :double:
2021APR17 104000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -84.85 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.49 ARCHER HIM-8 19.1
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#447 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:13 am

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1383364985179414531


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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#448 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:17 am

Hayabusa wrote:raw 8.1 :double:
2021APR17 104000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -84.85 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.49 ARCHER HIM-8 19.1

JTWC be like: “hmm, yes, this is 140 kt with a CMG ring”
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#449 Postby NotoSans » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:24 am

Weather Dude wrote:I think it's pretty safe to say this is probably the strongest April typhoon on record now, regardless of what JTWC's estimate is

Andy’89 is a strong contender.
 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1383383369447137290


Last edited by NotoSans on Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#450 Postby kevin » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:25 am

Hayabusa wrote:raw 8.1 :double:
2021APR17 104000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -84.85 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.49 ARCHER HIM-8 19.1


:double: this is absolute madness. I think even 155 kts at this stage might be a conservative estimate.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#451 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:31 am

Outer eyewalls are developing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Minghao_Zhou ... 8160675841
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#452 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:35 am

kevin wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:raw 8.1 :double:
2021APR17 104000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -84.85 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.49 ARCHER HIM-8 19.1


:double: this is absolute madness. I think even 155 kts at this stage might be a conservative estimate.

If only the promets in this forum could chime in and assess it :eek:
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#453 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:36 am

Temperature between the eye and the central cloud region is now at 105.19
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#454 Postby Dylan » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:39 am

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1383383605825527824


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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#455 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:57 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#456 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:58 am

NotoSans wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I think it's pretty safe to say this is probably the strongest April typhoon on record now, regardless of what JTWC's estimate is

Andy’89 is a strong contender.
https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1383383369447137290?s=21

Andy (top) vs. Surigae (bottom):
Image
Image
Honestly, Andy’s presentation was clearly more impressive than Surigae’s, given a more symmetric CDO and similar temperatures in the eye.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#457 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:03 am

Shell Mound wrote:
NotoSans wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I think it's pretty safe to say this is probably the strongest April typhoon on record now, regardless of what JTWC's estimate is

Andy’89 is a strong contender.
https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1383383369447137290?s=21

Andy (top) vs. Surigae (bottom):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzLD1t_VcAYaIUa?format=jpg&name=small
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021wp02/4kmirimg/2021wp02_4kmirimg_202104171020.gif
Honestly, Andy’s presentation was clearly more impressive than Surigae’s, given a more symmetric CDO and similar temperatures in the eye.


I'd take Surigae's overall structure over Andy
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#458 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:04 am

JMA 12Z CI 7.5
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#459 Postby Meow » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:06 am

Hayabusa wrote:JMA 12Z CI 7.5


Image
CI: 7.5 | DT: 7.5 | MET: 6.5 | PT: 7.0 | FT: 7.5
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#460 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:07 am

TPPN10 PGTW 171201

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 17/1140Z

C. 11.97N

D. 129.34E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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