ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa has near formed an eye on radar again. It’s still open to the south but it’s a strengthening storm. Those are much worse than weakening ones because gusts are much more prevalent (gusts are what actually strengthen the storm by increasing mean wind speeds as a result of the pressure gradient). It’s a pretty neat process but dangerous. I will take a weakening cat 1 over a strengthening high end Ts considering other factors are equal.

I believe that’s more of a dry socket devoid of precipitation than it is a true eye.

It has the structure of sinking air about it. As it is somewhat visible on satellite. That is likely an eye feature

[Kohlecane]

Just curious Why is recon focused down near St. Pete at the moment?

[TallyTracker]

Getting some heavier rain now in Tallahassee. Only expecting a few bands as we’re on the drier side. Not much wind though.

[wx98]

Elsa has near formed an eye on radar again. It’s still open to the south but it’s a strengthening storm. Those are much worse than weakening ones because gusts are much more prevalent (gusts are what actually strengthen the storm by increasing mean wind speeds as a result of the pressure gradient). It’s a pretty neat process but dangerous. I will take a weakening cat 1 over a strengthening high end Ts considering other factors are equal.

I believe that’s more of a dry socket devoid of precipitation than it is a true eye.

It has the structure of sinking air about it. As it is somewhat visible on satellite. That is likely an eye feature

It does look more like an eye from Tallahassee than from Tampa.

[Ubuntwo]

Not a terrible looking cyclone at the moment.

[TallyTracker]

Not a terrible looking cyclone at the moment.
https://i.imgur.com/k7KXRQn.gif

Look at that tail! Cape Coral and Fort Myers are getting pounded!

[igoldfish]

Not having fun near fort Myers Beach. HOURS of constant rain,
thunder and lightning. This "squall line" just won't go away. If Tampa is done using it's deflection shield, Fort Myers could sure
use it now. Quite impressive on radar

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is pulling off one lass hurrah before landfall.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I live in SW CT and saw that the track has shifted west with a stronger storm off the coast than before. Does anyone know how much rainfall I can expect and if I’ll get any TS-force winds/gusts?

I doubt you will receive many impacts besides overcast. It should head East fast as it gets embedded in the westerlies.

Probably some brief squalls and heavy rain. I did not know the track had shifted so Far West.
Look to your local weather service to get the best picture

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1412748319328178179

[tolakram]

COD visible
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like Elsa is trying one more time to get better organized before landfall. Hopefully impacts aren't too bad.

[ElectricStorm]

Is recon supposed to go out again?

EDIT: Never mind I should have looked first

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/evanjameswx/status/1412745221142614017

[hipshot]

https://twitter.com/evanjameswx/status/1412745221142614017

Wow, I've never been through even a TS but that is not what I would imagine it looks like but more like a hurricane.

[caneman]

She gave it a good run. We got lucky the eyewall collapsed she was on the upswing big time

[AutoPenalti]

If we haven't learned this yet it's that intensity forecasts are still very much in their infancy. This will definitely be a future case study -- development occurring despite high trade winds, tilted circulations, unusual pressure readings.

[InfernoFlameCat]

She completed an eyewall at landfall

[ronjon]

She gave it a good run. We got lucky the eyewall collapsed she was on the upswing big time

Looks to be organizing again on radar and satellite. Fortunately, running out of real estate. Winds in Hernando Beach have turned on shore. We're getting occasional heavy squalls now. Up to 6.28 inches of rain since midnight. Tide on the rise now with high tide around noon.

[funster]

NHC still has Elsa at min pressure 999 mb and 65 mph winds so very impressive TS for July.