ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

Are there any reports of what the sustained winds are at Cedar Key? Hard to gauge by images alone but that looks like high-end tropical storm force.

[aspen]

Recon found that the LLC took a last minute jog to the north, which will probably shift the track a little west again.

[JediChick]

Are there any reports of what the sustained winds are at Cedar Key? Hard to gauge by images alone but that looks like high-end tropical storm force.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=cdrf1

Peak gust was at 8:00 am at 51 kt.

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

Center is coming onshore between Steinhatchee and Horseshoe Beach. Extremely heavy rains in Taylor and Dixie Counties.

[AnnularCane]

Elsa has near formed an eye on radar again. It’s still open to the south but it’s a strengthening storm. Those are much worse than weakening ones because gusts are much more prevalent (gusts are what actually strengthen the storm by increasing mean wind speeds as a result of the pressure gradient). It’s a pretty neat process but dangerous. I will take a weakening cat 1 over a strengthening high end Ts considering other factors are equal.

That's pretty interesting. I knew getting hit with an intensifying storm was worse than being hit with a stable or weakening one with similar strength (learned that with Cindy in 2005), but I never really knew why that was the case. It was a rather sudden gust that seemed to announce Cindy's arrival.

And now, back to Elsa.

[tronbunny]

Elsa is still beating up on Ft. Meyers

[HurricaneEnzo]

Outside of the E Carib Elsa has looked its best while actively landfalling. Cuba and now FL.

[TallyTracker]

The track forecast for Elsa has been remarkable. This stretch of coast has been pinpointed relatively closely for much of the past week. Even the intensity of 55 kts is close to what NHC forecast 5 days ago with some added ups and downs in between. Excellent job by the experts!

[Evenstar]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

[AlphaToOmega]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

It does; only two other seasons have had a hurricane take a similar track as Elsa this early in the year: 1933 and 2005.

[AlphaToOmega]

It seems like Tropical Storm Elsa has officially made landfall in Florida, and the people in South Florida get to dodge another bullet.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

There is data that shows a potential link between July E Carib Hurricane activity and active seasons. The sample size is very small though but pretty eye opening. A list of other seasons that included E Carib July Hurricanes includes, 1996, 1926, 1933, 1961, 2005, and 2020. 5 of those are some of the most impressive seasons all-time and 1996 had a high ratio of Hurricanes and major Hurricanes.

We can't definitively say if this predicts an active season but if it does end up being active it is a very interesting correlation.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1412795718155264003




8 a.m. Friday forecast point is close to NYC.

[aspen]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

The formation of Elsa in this location and time of year is definitely a strong signal for an active year ahead. I limited my sample size to years since 1980 to exclude those in the peak of the -AMO phase. Seasons that had a hurricane form anywhere in the basin from a July tropical wave are 1985, 1989, 1990, 1996, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2018, and 2020, and have average numbers of:
—16.9 named storms
—9.2 hurricanes
—4.2 majors
—159.86 ACE

2021 is now one of a handful of seasons that saw a July AEW system of any intensity develop east of 70W and south of 20-25N (east Caribbean and MDR). The other seasons post-1980 are 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2017, 2018, and 2020. Excluding the anomalous 2013, whose below-average activity was due to a rare weakening of the THC, the average numbers are:
—17.5 named storms
—9.7 hurricanes
—4.3 majors
—174.32 ACE

By comparison, seasons that had July systems formed from non-tropical precursors are generally less active than the two categories I mentioned above. This category does include some active years that had July systems from different origins (one non-tropical and one from an AEW), and also 2004, because Hurricane Alex was formed from an AEW and a non-tropical low merging. The list of seasons are 1985, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1995, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. They average out to:
—14.3 named storms
—7.1 hurricanes
—3.2 majors
—119.01 ACE

[Evenstar]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

It does; only two other seasons have had a hurricane take a similar track as Elsa this early in the year: 1933 and 2005.

Thanks!!!

[Evenstar]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

It does; only two other seasons have had a hurricane take a similar track as Elsa this early in the year: 1933 and 2005.

Thanks!!

[Hurricane Mike]

Elsa landfall video update, if nothing else...for posterity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TGExoWHgWE

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1412808401890025474

[Evenstar]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

The formation of Elsa in this location and time of year is definitely a strong signal for an active year ahead. I limited my sample size to years since 1980 to exclude those in the peak of the -AMO phase. Seasons that had a hurricane form anywhere in the basin from a July tropical wave are 1985, 1989, 1990, 1996, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2018, and 2020, and have average numbers of:
—16.9 named storms
—9.2 hurricanes
—4.2 majors
—159.86 ACE

2021 is now one of a handful of seasons that saw a July AEW system of any intensity develop east of 70W and south of 20-25N (east Caribbean and MDR). The other seasons post-1980 are 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2017, 2018, and 2020. Excluding the anomalous 2013, whose below-average activity was due to a rare weakening of the THC, the average numbers are:
—17.5 named storms
—9.7 hurricanes
—4.3 majors
—174.32 ACE

By comparison, seasons that had July systems formed from non-tropical precursors are generally less active than the two categories I mentioned above. This category does include some active years that had July systems from different origins (one non-tropical and one from an AEW), and also 2004, because Hurricane Alex was formed from an AEW and a non-tropical low merging. The list of seasons are 1985, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1995, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. They average out to:
—14.3 named storms
—7.1 hurricanes
—3.2 majors
—119.01 ACE

So, Elsa is a harbinger. I know nothing is set in stone, but wow. I'm printing this. Thank you!!