WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical
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NotoSans
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Up to CI7.5 from JMA but JTWC sticks with CI7.0. There's also a recent SMAP pass showing max 10-min winds of 148kt (corresponding to 1-min 160kt) so it'd be interesting to see JTWC's ultimate estimate at 12Z.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:TPPN10 PGTW 171201
A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1140Z
C. 11.97N
D. 129.34E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Of course I joke about them assessing Surigae as a system with a CMG ring....and they asses Surigae as a system with a CMG ring. Is this guy even looking at the same storm we are?
I’m now patiently waiting for that 140 kt 12z BT update to spam clown emojis.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Hayabusa wrote:TPPN10 PGTW 171201
A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1140Z
C. 11.97N
D. 129.34E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Of course I joke about them assessing Surigae as a system with a CMG ring....and they asses Surigae as a system with a CMG ring. Is this guy even looking at the same storm we are?
I’m now patiently waiting for that 140 kt 12z BT update to spam clown emojis.
well let's wait for their actual 12Z estimate, if they follow the satellite fix then you can rant
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
JTWC has this at 150 mph, CAT 4 Super Typhoon
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Shell Mound
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Hayabusa wrote:TPPN10 PGTW 171201
A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1140Z
C. 11.97N
D. 129.34E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Of course I joke about them assessing Surigae as a system with a CMG ring....and they asses Surigae as a system with a CMG ring. Is this guy even looking at the same storm we are?
I’m now patiently waiting for that 140 kt 12z BT update to spam clown emojis.
Maybe the fact that Rhoades is on duty has something to do with it. On the other hand, maybe JTWC is reluctant to go with a record-breaking MSW in April.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Remarkable that SATCON and ADT are almost in perfect agreement. 163 to 167 knots!
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 04171004
SATCON: MSLP = 915 hPa MSW = 163 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 160.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 136 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 360 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.1 knots Source: IR
Member Estimates
ADT: 894 hPa 167 knots Scene: CDO Date: APR171110
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 04171004
SATCON: MSLP = 915 hPa MSW = 163 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 160.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 136 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 360 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.1 knots Source: IR
Member Estimates
ADT: 894 hPa 167 knots Scene: CDO Date: APR171110
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doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:Remarkable that SATCON and ADT are almost in perfect agreement. 163 to 167 knots!
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 04171004
SATCON: MSLP = 915 hPa MSW = 163 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 160.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 136 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 360 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.1 knots Source: IR
Member Estimates
ADT: 894 hPa 167 knots Scene: CDO Date: APR171110
SATCON incorporates ADT, so that probably explains it.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
155 knots
02W SURIGAE 210417 1200 12.0N 129.2E WPAC 155 900
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Plots updated automatically
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Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Plots updated automatically
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:155 knots02W SURIGAE 210417 1200 12.0N 129.2E WPAC 155 900
Is that from the JMA?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:155 knots02W SURIGAE 210417 1200 12.0N 129.2E WPAC 155 900
I’ll take it. Still a record-breaker.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
From ssd
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1130 UTC 12.0N 129.3E T8.0/8.0 SURIGAE -- West Pacific
17/1130 UTC 12.0N 129.3E T8.0/8.0 SURIGAE -- West Pacific
Last edited by Hayabusa on Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
TXPQ29 KNES 171223
TCSWNP
A. 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 12.0N
D. 129.3E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T8.0/8.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN CDG RESULTING IN
A DT OF 8.0 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT AGREES. MET IS
7.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE
DT IS 7.8. THIS JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE DT HAS BEEN AT AN 8.0 FOR THE LAST 4 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE
TCSWNP
A. 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 12.0N
D. 129.3E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T8.0/8.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN CDG RESULTING IN
A DT OF 8.0 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT AGREES. MET IS
7.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE
DT IS 7.8. THIS JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE DT HAS BEEN AT AN 8.0 FOR THE LAST 4 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE
Last edited by Subtrop on Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:TPPN10 PGTW 171201
A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1140Z
C. 11.97N
D. 129.34E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Sometimes I wonder if this guy just refuses to ever go above 7.0
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Iceresistance wrote:Hayabusa wrote:155 knots02W SURIGAE 210417 1200 12.0N 129.2E WPAC 155 900
Is that from the JMA?
That's JTWC
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:Hayabusa wrote:TPPN10 PGTW 171201
A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1140Z
C. 11.97N
D. 129.34E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Sometimes I wonder if this guy just refuses to ever go above 7.0
I don't think that CDG would have changed anything with an OW eye. CI of 8.0 from SAB is crazy though
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Hayabusa wrote:155 knots02W SURIGAE 210417 1200 12.0N 129.2E WPAC 155 900
Is that from the JMA?
That's JTWC
And when is Warning #17 coming out from the JTWC? Or Warning #16A as a update?
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
TorSkk wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Hayabusa wrote:TPPN10 PGTW 171201
A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1140Z
C. 11.97N
D. 129.34E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Sometimes I wonder if this guy just refuses to ever go above 7.0
I don't think that CDG would have changed anything with an OW eye. CI of 8.0 from SAB is crazy though
Still, Rhoades assessed Surigae as having a CMG ring, when this is clearly a CDG ring. You can’t really get much more obviously CDG than this.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:raw 8.1
2021APR17 104000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -84.85 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.49 ARCHER HIM-8 19.1
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Subtrop wrote:TXPQ29 KNES 171223
TCSWNP
A. 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 12.0N
D. 129.3E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T8.0/8.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN CDG RESULTING IN
A DT OF 8.0 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT AGREES. MET IS
7.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE
DT IS 7.8. THIS JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE DT HAS BEEN AT AN 8.0 FOR THE LAST 4 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE
Record breaker.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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