ATL: FRED - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#461 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:07 pm

Gfs shifts east.

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#462 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:08 pm

tolakram wrote:Track errors so far.

Image

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062021/
Good old tvcn which is essentially the nhc track..this is a great graphic, woukd be worthy of being pinned for each named system
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#463 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:11 pm

SFLcane wrote:Gfs shifts east.

Image
That is a significant shift, nhc will need to adjust accordingly at 11.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#464 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:15 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
That is a significant shift, nhc will need to adjust accordingly at 11.

Yeah there should be a slight shift after that one. The models that were keeping the NHC a bit more west are no longer out there for the time being. Once it clears Hispaniola, the wild card barrier should be cleared.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#465 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:40 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
That is a significant shift, nhc will need to adjust accordingly at 11.


78 hours, that's 3+ days away. So much can happen between now and then.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#466 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:57 pm

Fred getting beat down a little by Hispaniola. Does anyone know what the eta is for him re-emerging?


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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#467 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:58 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
That is a significant shift, nhc will need to adjust accordingly at 11.


Models seem to think the center will reform further north when Fred touches back down in the water.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#468 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:01 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Fred getting beat down a little by Hispaniola. Does anyone know what the eta is for him re-emerging?


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif


The beatdown has just begun. There is no guarantee he survives this trek across the highest elevations that Hispaniola can offer.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#469 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:17 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Fred getting beat down a little by Hispaniola. Does anyone know what the eta is for him re-emerging?


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif


LLC looks decoupled from the convection may just be a sheared remnant.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#470 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:22 pm

Well the HWRF is flip flopping more than a politician on Election Day. Fred so far is no where to be found at 18z.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#471 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:30 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Well the HWRF is flip flopping more than a politician on Election Day. Fred so far is no where to be found at 18z.



P O O F :blowup:
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#472 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:37 pm

The convection is stuck and you can a low level dissipating circulation move off NW coast of Haiti. Based on the 5pm position that convection should have moved WNW and it hasn’t. Fred may be dead??
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#473 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:44 pm

18Z HWRF = Fred is Dead, talk about a 180 from 12z Whatever is left goes to Louisiana
18Z HMON = Starts to get back together in the Gulf and heads toward Gulf Shores, AL
Last edited by BobHarlem on Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#474 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:27 pm

BobHarlem wrote:18Z HWRF = Fred is Dead, talk about a 180 from 12z
18Z HMON = Starts to get back together in the Gulf.



That 18z HMON...the "L" is sitting right on top of my house at the end of the run. No thanks. Hope it dissipates and never makes it back.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#475 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:36 pm

18z euro with landfall in SFL.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#476 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:55 pm

SFLcane wrote:18z euro with landfall in SFL.


Can you post the run? Did the LLC form N of Hispaniola?
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#477 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:03 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:18z euro with landfall in SFL.


Can you post the run? Did the LLC form N of Hispaniola?



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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#478 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:13 pm

18Z Euro
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#479 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:19 pm

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#480 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:21 pm

Just noticed the change to the TVCN. The earlier run had Fred going into the big bend but now back to the panhandle around Panama City.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
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