CPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thats a Tc right there.

[Yellow Evan]

Gale warnings up for the entire state.

Let’s be real this should be a tropical storm warning. This is a warm core low with organized deep convection.

Edit: this is also still expected to get blasted by the TUTT tonight.

[Sciencerocks]

[Bocadude85]

We could be in for some bumpy weather if this passes south of Oahu as guidance is currently showing.

[Kingarabian]

Gale warnings up for the entire state.

Let’s be real this should be a tropical storm warning. This is a warm core low with organized deep convection.

Edit: this is also still expected to get blasted by the TUTT tonight.

Yeah I mean it is the CPHC. They didn't even have a yellow circle for it. Models were always showing that this would refire convection once it reached warmer waters.

Shear forecast is also a bit tricky here. We seen with other systems in the past, that with an abrupt increase in deep layer shear near Hawaii, the effects are usually delayed (where the system seems to be doing fine despite a 30-40kt vector over it). A lot of it has to do with mid shear playing catch up.

[Kingarabian]

Just call it a TS lol

Discussion

High stability prevails across the area this morning as the inversion height remains unchanged from yesterday, around 6kft, and visible imagery confirms a stable appearance to regional cloud cover. Saturation through much of the boundary layer is producing persistent overcast skies over Kauai and Oahu with lesser coverage elsewhere. This moisture will take a couple more hours than normal to mix out, particularly given the strength of the inversion. In the meantime, occasional light showers over Windward Kauai and Oahu and frequent sprinkles or drizzle leeward areas can be expected. Conditions will briefly dry out this afternoon into the first half of tonight as subsidence associated with a passing shortwave ridge moves through the area.

The focus for late tonight through Monday night will be on impacts associated with the former TC Linda as it moves through the islands. Infrared imagery indicates cold cloud tops up to around 40kft concentrated along the northern periphery of the circulation while the latest ASCAT confirms a solid corridor of sustained gales north of the core. A few lightning strikes were observed earlier this morning within the some of the more vigorous convective towers. As the low approaches, trade or trade-like showers will focus over Windward Maui and Big Island (particularly the Hamakua Coast) late tonight as winds gradually back from northeasterly to more northwesterly. The loss of the inversion and deepening moisture characterized by PWATs climbing toward 2 inches will support the potential for heavy showers beginning late tonight and increasing in coverage and intensity through the day Sunday. Several inches of rain will be possible over these areas during the day Sunday. In addition, inland convection over the Big Island slopes will also carry the potential to produce heavy convective rainfall.

As the low center tracks toward the middle of the island chain, breezy northeasterly flow will begin increasing over the remaining islands Sunday night into Monday while the strongest winds along the northern flank of the system remain offshore for the time being. In addition to a noticeable increase in humidity, a similar evolution can be expected for Molokai through Kauai with trade wind-like showers increasing in coverage and intensity Sunday night through Monday. Showers will penetrate leeward with increasing efficiency as the column saturates through the lowest 15kft or so. Throughout much of this time, forecast soundings indicate opposing southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels around the eastern periphery of the broad upper-level low pressure. This raises the possibility for any deeper convection to become anchored along the terrain leading to locally increased flash flood potential. The threat for organized heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be greatest north of the low center which is expected with fairly high confidence to move through the center of the island chain. Nonetheless, impacts will remain sensitive to minor adjustments in the low position. Given the expected close proximity of the low, Oahu in particular will be more sensitive to the margin of forecast error. Finally, the potential for gusty winds will likewise be sensitive to the low track. At this time, it appears that the highest probability for strong winds will be over Kauai and possibly Oahu. The potential for a wind advisory (gusts greater than 50 mph), most likely for the daytime hours on Monday, will eventually require closer evaluation.

[Kingarabian]

[wxman57]

Looks like a TS, to me. Maybe if they ignore it then it will go away. At least it won't hold TS strength very long. Remnant low into Maui area after sunrise Monday. Breezy with increased shower activity Sunday night/Monday.

[EquusStorm]

ASCAT showing a clear well defined closed LLC with gale winds at the surface still present and about a day of reasonably enough organized convection... definitely a TC again but CPHC is not a fan of writing advisories, we continue to see

[weeniepatrol]

This is a tropical storm.

[Kingarabian]

ASCAT showing a clear well defined closed LLC with gale winds at the surface still present and about a day of reasonably enough organized convection... definitely a TC again but CPHC is not a fan of writing advisories, we continue to see

The CPHC has had staffing issues in the past so that's probably it. However if they're just going to keep repeatedly ignoring TC's and not issue proper TWO's, then they should shut it down and give back the authority to the NHC.

[EquusStorm]

Aren't CPHC mets not specifically trained in tropical and basically just forecasters at NWS Honolulu? It might be better for all involved to just give responsibility to the NHC since there aren't many storms per year to have to warn for anyway. Besides it's gotta be annoying to keep having to put up one advisory from a new agency for dissipating depressions just because they struggled along to 140W.

[Kingarabian]

Aren't CPHC mets not specifically trained in tropical and basically just forecasters at NWS Honolulu? It might be better for all involved to just give responsibility to the NHC since there aren't many storms per year to have to warn for anyway. Besides it's gotta be annoying to keep having to put up one advisory from a new agency for dissipating depressions just because they struggled along to 140W.

They have hurricane forecasters in Tom Birchard, Jon Jelsema, Ballard, and a few others. Guys who know their stuff. Just the decision making is kinda ??? sometimes.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1429191240223006730

[tolakram]

Linda never fails to make for good loop pictures. Look at the shockwaves north of Linda.

[Kingarabian]

Could argue there's 50mph winds with ASCAT's biases:

[Kingarabian]

Still yet to reach 26C waters as well.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/bodyboarder22/status/1429195372614754307

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/bodyboarder22/status/1429195372614754307?s=21

I think they'll bite if it continues. Maybe this upcoming advisory or the following one.

[Kingarabian]

It has maintained a very organized skeleton/structure for the past couple of days despite 24C waters.



Now trying to strengthen again.