ATL: GRACE - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#461 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:44 pm

Image
18z ICON... Strongest run so far...
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#462 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:44 pm

18z GFS is weaker already through 6 hours. Maybe better reflecting reality.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#463 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:47 pm

Finally closes off in 24 hours, but not much of a north movement

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#464 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:50 pm

If the 18z hits Hispaniola this run, I don't see how it'll recover.

At this point, the only way Grace will be an issue in the long-term will be if it goes south of Hispaniola IMHO.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#465 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:51 pm

You can see the ridge outline in the water vapor imagery about 25N from -70 west.
Levi mentioned the possibility of the ridge being pumped, and I think the ICON run is probably a good representation of that.
Saw the ICON run posted and thought maybe it would be easier to see in the WV loop.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#466 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:56 pm

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1426663130332114949


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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#467 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:01 pm

Fred, the sequel. :lol:
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#468 Postby kevin » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:06 pm

GFS just poofs Grace. So with the models so far I guess we can narrow it down to a dissipated storm all the way up to a hurricane in the Gulf. This has to be one of the most uncertain forecasts I've seen in a while.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#469 Postby Woofde » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:08 pm

Ensemble members are MUCH weaker 36 hours out. Maybe this is the result of the ingested recon data?
ImageImage
Last edited by Woofde on Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#470 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:08 pm

Looks like GFS poofs it thanks to the PV streamer.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#471 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:13 pm

At hour 114, looks like something starting again SW of the tip of Cuba. It's not over yet.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#472 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:16 pm

Remnants of Grace heading for the gulf?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#473 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:17 pm

GFS has gone from a cat 4 in the outer banks to nothing in the western Gulf and all in between in the last few days. Anyone jumping on something one way or the other is looking for problems.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#474 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:19 pm

BobHarlem wrote:GFS has gone from a cat 4 in the outer banks to nothing in the western Gulf and all in between in the last few days. Anyone jumping on something one way or the other is looking for problems.


We all seem to hop on a track train in one way or another at times. Human nature. This is a COMPLICATED set up. I'm taking a break :lol:
Last edited by toad strangler on Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#475 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:19 pm

I don't think it's over, just like I don't think Fred is done yet, but it is taking the same trek, at least so far. I think this is yet another season where we will not know until a few days out.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#476 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:27 pm

GFS 06z = Landfall SFL
GFS 18z = Landfall Bay of Campeche as TD
:D
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#477 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:32 pm

HMON is running now.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#478 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:44 pm

5pm 15.9N/60.7W - Due W at 26 mph.

HMON is at 16.5N/61.1W at 9 hours... Grace at 26 mph would have blown by that position way W, so throw out 18z models if you believe in the 5pm stats... IMO
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#479 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:45 pm

0Z runs should hopefully intialize better with recon data.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

#480 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:55 pm

Lol, why is the HMON north so far?
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