ATL: ELSA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

just toss the 00z models out..

poop data in = poop runs out..

[Jr0d]

Icon for the severalith run in a row peels off the energy into the front again.

Unfortunately, it seems that the 2020 issues of models poofing everything is going to continue.

Yeah AR24. But we could almost count on a dangerous alliance of ICON and CMC for genesis last year. Unfortunately unless the ICON is about to score a coup on this, it will remain unreliable for tracks. Notable on the GFS 00z is that it swings pretty far west and hits around Taylor County. It’s one of the most sparsely populated counties on the northern Gulf. But the worst convection rides up west of the center which ends up leaving the CONUS around the NC/VA border. Maybe not super extreme for those folks in coastal GA, SC and NC, but notable weather.

It's just one model run, unlikely this will hold true. I expect the windshield wiper effect for the next day or so.

Until the models get good data from the Upper Air recon sampling, we might as well throw darts at the gulf coast....though the model consensus is still centered over Florida.

Let's see if the storm can survive or possible thrive on it's passage through the Greater Antilles before we can speculate on the CONUS impact.

We do have tropical storm conditions possible as the forecast in my area(Key West) for Monday....I expect this will get upgraded to hurricane conditions possible by Saturday morning.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is still one of the strongest runs yet for the HWRF despite the data.

[AtlanticWind]

Big shifts east by HMON and HWRF

[Shell Mound]

This is still one of the strongest runs yet for the HWRF despite the data.

But it’s notably weaker through 48h vs. earlier runs. Only afterward does it hold or trend stronger.

[chaser1]

EURO stands behind the plate. Here comes the pitch.... and it's a "change-up" for a strike. 24 hr. forecast a tad south of prior runs.

[Shell Mound]

EURO stands behind the plate. Here comes the pitch.... and it's a "change-up" for a strike. 24 hr. forecast a tad south of prior runs.

False alarm. Through 72h the 00Z run is basically the same as previous ones, tracking over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba en route to the northwestern Bahamas.

[ROCK]

West huh?? Wow who would have thought that?

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensembles starting to cave towards the GFS ensembles? Track changes could be getting interesting:

[chaser1]

EURO doesn't like to cave all at once

[Shell Mound]

ECMWF ensembles starting to cave towards the GFS ensembles? Track changes could be getting interesting:

https://i.imgur.com/X82vdi3.png

Yet Elsa is currently tracking WNW along the extreme N edge of the guidance. Currently it is about to pass directly over Barbados. Expect eastward shifts again...

[Jr0d]

Normally a little wobble does not make a difference on the long term track, however given Elsa's speed this little wobble north can make a big difference down the road....we will see if it's a wobble and not a trend.

Interesting that now that Elsa is on the right side(north) of the guidance the right outlier(the EURO) shifts left ...

[Dean4Storms]

Definite shift westward between the 00z ECM and Ensembles yesterday compared to today’s 00z run. Looking more and more like a FL Panhandle to Big Bend area landfall down the road.

[Shell Mound]

Definite shift westward between the 00z ECM and Ensembles yesterday compared to today’s 00z run. Looking more and more like a FL Panhandle to Big Bend area landfall down the road.

All the global models have been handling Elsa’s short-term movement very poorly. Over the past day it has been and is consistently tracking N of guidance.

[Jr0d]

Definite shift westward between the 00z ECM and Ensembles yesterday compared to today’s 00z run. Looking more and more like a FL Panhandle to Big Bend area landfall down the road.

Way too early to make that call....maybe after the storm is past Haiti we can start to narrow down a potential CONUS landfall.

This still can miss Florida to the east(looking less likely) or go go west of the state. A Florida landfall is not entirely certain...trying to predict where in Florida will get the worst impact is nothing but a guess right now.

[Shell Mound]

Definite shift westward between the 00z ECM and Ensembles yesterday compared to today’s 00z run. Looking more and more like a FL Panhandle to Big Bend area landfall down the road.

Way too early to make that call....maybe after the storm is past Haiti we can start to narrow down a potential CONUS landfall.

This still can miss Florida to the east(looking less likely) or go go west of the state. A Florida landfall is not entirely certain...trying to predict where in Florida will get the worst impact is nothing but a guess right now.

If Elsa continues heading to the N of the guidance, even an east-of-Florida scenario should not be dismissed as being less likely than any of the other potentialities.

[Weatherboy1]

06Z GFS shifted a BIT further NE near SW Florida. Maybe 15/20 miles I’d estimate. Will be interesting to see if and how GFS and Euro converge today

[Nimbus]

06Z GFS shifted a BIT further NE near SW Florida. Maybe 15/20 miles I’d estimate. Will be interesting to see if and how GFS and Euro converge today

GFS is on the left side of the official NHC current track through Tampa.
06 GFS still targeting big bend area with 0z HWRF.

[NDG]

Meanwhile, last night's Euro was forecasting Elsa to be to the SW of Barbados by now, way too fast and weaker than reality, no wonder it could be erroneously opening up into a tropical wave as it gets into the G.A.

[Cat5James]

06Z HWRF is almost a full degree North thru 36 hours... will certainly have implications on overall track.