ATL: GRACE - Models

[Blown Away]

18z HMON slower, stronger, NE or previous runs. Shows strong TS/Cat 1 into PR in @30 hours...

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/9nzL8s1.gif
18z HMON slower, stronger, NE or previous runs. Shows strong TS/Cat 1 into PR in @30 hours...

Oof... it didn’t even take much either. I feel like more NE shifts are likely.


Edit: nevermind that is the HMON...

[HurricaneFrances04]

So HWRF and HMON go back north, GFS goes south

*Grandpa Simpson walks in, walks out gif*

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF clears PR to the North. Looks like HMON may clear the north Hispaniola coast.


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[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/9nzL8s1.gif
18z HMON slower, stronger, NE or previous runs. Shows strong TS/Cat 1 into PR in @30 hours...

This storm makes Isaias look like a simple forecast. I honestly hate the fact that I watch every single model suite.

[HurricaneFrances04]

5pm 15.9N/60.7W - Due W at 26 mph.

HMON is at 16.5N/61.1W at 9 hours... Grace at 26 mph would have blown by that position way W, so throw out 18z models if you believe in the 5pm stats... IMO

Looking at Guadeloupe radar, I think any low level spin is north of the NHC center coordinates. Will be interesting to see what recon finds.

[PTrackerLA]

18z HMON North of the DR at 45hrs, looks like it could avoid Hispaniola completely this run...

[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF is a full degree NE at hour 33. Same strength as 12z.

[JtSmarts]

HMON still manages to hit the northern coast of the DR, will have to see how it penetrates inland.

[SFLcane]

[AxaltaRacing24]

FWIW, the NHC said that this HWRF had some new recon data in it.

[AtlanticWind]

FWIW, the NHC said that this HWRF had some new recon data in it.

Thats right , forgot about that
May explain big change

[Hypercane_Kyle]

0Z runs should hopefully intialize better with recon data.

No, the 18z runs had recon data.

[SouthFLTropics]

These models are maddening… I can’t recall a recent time when we have seen such wild swings from one run to the next.


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[HurricaneFrances04]

Must be a complex setup. One gust of wind blows the wrong way and we get a completely different outcome. Kind of crazy the models can't figure it out only 48 hours out though.

[Category5Kaiju]

So the HWRF depicting a northwestward turn and going over the DR and PR is predicted based on the recon data? That would be interesting.

[AxaltaRacing24]

So the HWRF depicting a northwestward turn and going over the DR and PR is predicted based on the recon data? That would be interesting.

Seems that way for this suite at least. For the HMON, this is the most north it was ever been with Grace.

[SouthFLTropics]

Must be a complex setup. One gust of wind blows the wrong way and we get a completely different outcome. Kind of crazy the models can't figure it out only 48 hours out though.

Are we seeing a real time butterfly affect with the models? The notion that a butterfly can flap its wings and affect the weather. Not sure if there is truth the the theory in space/time but it’s about the best explanation that I can come up with. Chaos theory at its finest.


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[AutoPenalti]

Must be a complex setup. One gust of wind blows the wrong way and we get a completely different outcome. Kind of crazy the models can't figure it out only 48 hours out though.

Are we seeing a real time butterfly affect with the models? The notion that a butterfly can flap its wings and affect the weather. Not sure if there is truth the the theory in space/time but it’s about the best explanation that I can come up with. Chaos theory at its finest.


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Well when you have certain things going against it like

ULL’s, competing steering flows, fred, mountains and shear, yeah I can see why it’s a complex set up.

[Kohlecane]

Bahamas Bound for the HWRF, What was the last system that the HWRF did really well with ?