ATL: IDA - Models

[ColdMiser123]

18z EPS has solutions from Brownsville all the way to New Orleans, a lot of spread still.

[sphelps8681]

How are some safe now when a COC as not even happened yet? I have always heard we really won't know until that happens. Everyone still needs to keep and eye on this thing whatever it will become or go.

[tailgater]

While I'm feeling better here in Houston based on the latest trends, we definitely aren't out of the woods yet. I think we should be more confidence in who will see impacts from this system by Friday. The threat has definitely increased for Louisiana today though.

Very True and if it doesn’t bomb out like it is forecast to, a weaker storm MAY go father west .

[NDG]

18z Euro shows one heck of an outflow developing for 99L at the end of its run.
Whatever comes out of TD 14 on the EPAC surely its outflow does not affect it.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z ECENS Ensemble Run

[hurricane2025]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html

[skyline385]

EPS 18Z looks largely the same in ensemble distribution
EDIT: Actually i think we have more members aiming for LA now...

[NDG]

18z EPS has solutions from Brownsville all the way to New Orleans, a lot of spread still.

The majority are between the upper TX coast and SE LA, that's less spread than its earlier 12z run.

[tolakram]

Here's the latest ensembles.

[tolakram]

18Z ECENS Ensemble Run

https://i.imgur.com/prpWo07.gif

Southern consolidation tends to be a more southwestern landfall, so watch where the center forms. I still say the upper air setup seems fairly straight forward, it's all in where the center forms. Just an opinion though.

[Steve]

The way it looks Texas is officially off the hook god bless you all on central gulf coast! Beaumont to alabama

I remember evacuating for RITA when every model agreed just to the west of Freeport with less than 24hrs left. Hit Beaumont.

Anyone remember tracking Katrina waiting for her to turn?

This is way too premature of a statement. Sometimes the safest spot 1 week out is the middle of the cone

Not trying to be too nit picky, but it hit about 45 miles east of Beaumont. But it was a giant storm that affected Jeff/Chambers Counties.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z ECENS Ensemble Run

https://i.imgur.com/prpWo07.gif

Southern consolidation tends to be a more southwestern landfall, so watch where the center forms. I still say the upper air setup seems fairly straight forward, it's all in where the center forms. Just an opinion though.

I agree 100 percent.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

[Frank P]

00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

What’s scary is almost all of them have that bend to the north in the track near landfall..not liking that at all…

[ColdMiser123]

18z EPS has solutions from Brownsville all the way to New Orleans, a lot of spread still.

The majority are between the upper TX coast and SE LA, that's less spread than its earlier 12z run.

https://i.imgur.com/7JrUbMm.png

Starting to get to the point where a Mexico landfall can most likely be ruled out, especially with the observed consolidation farther northeast. Still a lot of real estate in the ensemble spread for where this could potentially go though.

[CrazyC83]

00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

What’s scary is almost all of them have that bend to the north in the track near landfall..not liking that at all…

TABD for deep cyclones brings it into the western Florida Panhandle...

[cheezyWXguy]

00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

These are not the 0z models, they are the most recent model runs as of 0z. In other words, the 18z models.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

These are not the 0z models, they are the most recent model runs as of 0z. In other words, the 18z models.

Oh ok my bad thanks for telling me never knew that.

[Category5Kaiju]

A shift further east, and all I will say is there's some serious latent heat just waiting.

[skyline385]

00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

These are not the 0z models, they are the most recent model runs as of 0z. In other words, the 18z models.

That doesnt make sense, from what I understand these are statistical models which are easier to run and hence give result pretty quick compared to dynamical models which are full-scale simulations.

0Z statistical models should be initialized at 0Z as it says in the screenshot and not 18Z.
0Z dynamical models are initialized at 0Z as well but take 5-7 hours for results.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml?text