WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[TorSkk]

[euro6208]

Lots of typos in the prognostics. I think they fixed some of it.

[mrbagyo]

4 more pass tomorrow early morning (3:00 to 6:00 AM local time)

"The very coldest clouds and most intense convection represented in Figure 2 reach their maxima around 0300 to 0600 local time, whereas somewhat warmer clouds associated with stratiform cirrus clouds (i.e., warmer than) initially increase in phase with the very coldest clouds but go on to achieve appreciably stronger maxima later in the day, in a 1200-1500 time frame."

SSMI
04/17 20:08Z F-15

SSMIS
04/17 19:33Z F-16

04/17 22:13Z F-17

04/17 20:20Z F-18

[Highteeld]

Peaked around 11z and has been on downtrend since. It looked like a legit 170 knots at 11z, just as strong if not a hair stronger than GONI.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 890.3mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.0 8.0

[ElectricStorm]

What a monster. This might be the storm of the year right here. It's going to be tough to beat this, even during peak season...

[TorSkk]

Peaked around 11z and has been on downtrend since. It looked like a legit 170 knots at 11z, just as strong if not a hair stronger than GONI.

The eye was having trouble clearing out then, now it's quite clear. I don't think it has weakened any; if anything the intensity has to catch up with the appearance so it may be stronger now

[euro6208]

What a monster. This might be the storm of the year right here. It's going to be tough to beat this, even during peak season...

And to think it's only April.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/marvinoloris/status/1383416060431409164




Surigae > Goni

[aspen]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 890.3mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.0 8.0

Straight T#8.0 across the board....I never thought I would see this in April of all months.

I guess that 888 mbar GFS run wasn’t that crazy after all.

And yet somehow the JTWC decides to go lower than all Dvorak fixes, even the most recent manual ones.

[Highteeld]

JTWC back to their old tricks again. Their competency with Goni was short lived lol

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/marvinoloris/status/1383416060431409164

Surigae > Goni

I am disappointed by the inability to post clown emojis as a reaction to the JTWC’s clownish forecast decisions.

[TorSkk]

Their estimate was based on a T7.0 fix which was technically correct and another T7.5 one and also Satcon And ADT. Out of these only ADT was above T7.5 intensity

[euro6208]

Surigae is the most intense April typhoon on record, as well as the most intense pre-June tropical cyclone on record in the northern hemisphere.

Another global record!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Re: Surigae vs Goni, I wouldn't compare the CDO of two separate systems to make assumptions about its intensity. Remember how we all thought Eta was stronger than Wilma at one point?

[euro6208]

Automated Dvorak estimates (basically a computer algo calculating the strength of a storm based on its satellite appearance) are prone to errors, but they’re currently maxed out with Surigae.

Dang we need recon in this storm to measure it's TRUE intensity just had to say it. It'll be record breaking I bet.

Two 8.0 typhoons in 6 months will provide incredible valuable data.

[kevin]

Re: Surigae vs Goni, I wouldn't compare the CDO of two separate systems to make assumptions about its intensity. Remember how we all thought Eta was stronger than Wilma at one point?

I'm not saying Eta was actually stronger than Wilma (it probably wasn't), but considering we didn't have recon of Eta during the most intense phase of the storm we don't really know for sure. Because of that, of all the 2020 storms Eta is probably the last one I would use for these statements regarding comparisons of intensity and things like that considering we don't and probably never truly will know how strong it was and whether it may have come close to Wilma or not. Either way I do agree with you that we can't directly compare the CDO of two seperate systems.

[Subtrop]

TPPN10 PGTW 171457

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 17/1430Z

C. 12.10N

D. 128.95E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.5. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0934Z 11.75N 129.60E SSMS


RHOADES

[Kingarabian]

Re: Surigae vs Goni, I wouldn't compare the CDO of two separate systems to make assumptions about its intensity. Remember how we all thought Eta was stronger than Wilma at one point?

Yup true. The Eta Dvorak bust could keep things conservative down the line. So can't be too mad with the JTWCs CI. I believe Goni also had ground observations to back its assessments. Nonetheless Surigae is record breaking and that's enough for me. Hopefully it goes OTS.

[NotoSans]

The SMAP estimate for Goni was slightly higher at 10-min 154KT, so I'd argue that Surigae is slightly weaker than Goni.