ATL: IDA - Models

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#501 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:49 pm

skyline385 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

These are not the 0z models, they are the most recent model runs as of 0z. In other words, the 18z models.


That doesnt make sense, from what I understand these are statistical models which are easier to run and hence give result pretty quick compared to dynamical models which are full-scale simulations.

0Z statistical models should be initialized at 0Z as it says in the screenshot and not 18Z.
0Z dynamical models are initialized at 0Z as well but take 5-7 hours for results.

Guarantee that the output for 0z models will not match those tracks, even if the consensus doesn’t shift.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#502 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:49 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

These are not the 0z models, they are the most recent model runs as of 0z. In other words, the 18z models.


That's correct, if you see an I after the model abbreviations (AVNI, HWRFI, HMONI, etc.) the I stands for interpolated. An interpolated model run is just the 18z forecast run shifted forward in time by 6 hours, and these are grouped in "early" model guidance (most consensus, statistical, and statistical-dynamic guidance are derived from interpolated model forecasts, or early model output). In addition, forecasters preparing an 11PM ET (03z) forecast will use the early model guidance, as the 00z model run data comes out after 11PM ET. Forecast runs that contain new data (primarily run at 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) are grouped in the "late" model forecast guidance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#503 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:54 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

These are not the 0z models, they are the most recent model runs as of 0z. In other words, the 18z models.


They are the 0Z runs. Many of what you see in there have an "I" at the end. Those are interpolated models.

"Multi-layer dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique can be used to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast to apply to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (06Z) run of the GFS would be adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 12Z) would exactly match the observed 12Z position and intensity of the tropical cyclone. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model for the 12Z forecast cycle that is based on the most current available guidance. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, for historical reasons, as interpolated models."

From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

HWFI is the HWRF model, but interpolated 6 hours. The HWRF released at 0Z in best track data would have an initialization at 18Z. But 0Z HWFI, released after 0Z, is an interpolated version of the 18Z HWRF.

For a listing of many model names, visit my model name page here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... age=models

But all the models on that image from Tropical Tidbits are initialized at 0Z. They are all early cycle models. It's just some are interpolated versions of a previous cycle.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#504 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:54 pm

USTropics wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

These are not the 0z models, they are the most recent model runs as of 0z. In other words, the 18z models.


That's correct, if you see an I after the model abbreviations (AVNI, HWRFI, HMONI, etc.) the I stands for interpolated. An interpolated model run is just the 18z forecast run shifted forward in time by 6 hours, and these are grouped in "early" model guidance (most consensus, statistical, and statistical-dynamic guidance are derived from interpolated model forecasts, or early model output). In addition, forecasters preparing an 11PM ET (03z) forecast will use the early model guidance, as the 00z model run data comes out after 11PM ET. Forecast runs that contain new data (primarily run at 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) are grouped in the "late" model forecast guidance.


I'm surprised how little of this I knew, that's good information to keep on hand regarding the forecasts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#505 Postby skyline385 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:55 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:00Z showing more shifts east. New Orleans your up to bat.

https://i.imgur.com/3s2iyjB.png

These are not the 0z models, they are the most recent model runs as of 0z. In other words, the 18z models.


They are the 0Z runs. Many of what you see in there have an "I" at the end. Those are interpolated models.

"Multi-layer dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique can be used to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast to apply to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (06Z) run of the GFS would be adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 12Z) would exactly match the observed 12Z position and intensity of the tropical cyclone. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model for the 12Z forecast cycle that is based on the most current available guidance. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, for historical reasons, as interpolated models."

From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

HWFI is the HWRF model, but interpolated 6 hours. The HWRF released at 0Z in best track data would have an initialization at 18Z. But 0Z HWFI, released after 0Z, is an interpolated version of the 18Z HWRF.

For a listing of many model names, visit my model name page here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... age=models

But all the models on that image from Tropical Tidbits are initialized at 0Z. They are all early cycle models. It's just some are interpolated versions of a previous cycle.


This is the correct explanation right here. All models shown are initialized at 0Z and contain both statistical and interpolated models...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#506 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:22 pm

0z ICON looks even faster than the 18z. I don't understand what's going on.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#507 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:27 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:0z ICON looks even faster than the 18z. I don't understand what's going on.


Hey Cap'n. Time keeps on slipping slipping slipping...

To me it's in range. It's headed up toward St. Mary Parish (Morgan City/Berwick) at 99hours which is Sunday night at 10pm. It hasn't landfalled yet, so it's possible it could come in farther west and more like Monday day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#508 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:30 pm

Steve wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:0z ICON looks even faster than the 18z. I don't understand what's going on.


Hey Cap'n. Time keeps on slipping slipping slipping...

To me it's in range. It's headed up toward St. Mary Parish (Morgan City/Berwick) at 99hours which is Sunday night at 10pm. It hasn't landfalled yet, so it's possible it could come in farther west and more like Monday day.


At least it appears to be about the same as the 18z run as far as track. I wonder if that will be true for the other models generally?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#509 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:36 pm

We're going to see soon. This is one that I'd kind of wish my landlord hadn't sold the house where I used to live. It was like 15 feet up and this is the type of storm that could screw things up pretty bad except I'd mostly just have a birds eye view. Again, due to family circumstances, we may have to bail. ICON looks to have 99L landfall Monday morning south of Morgan City and doesn't give it an eastern component until after landfall. Steering currents look fairly week. Best I can tell is that it wants to put a cold front across the middle of the US, and ahead of that is a shortwave that passes by far to the north (Canada). This shouldn't lead to a stall inland, but it would mean Ida (?) will be much slower than say a Fall storm that's hooking out in front of a trough progressing across the country.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=108
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#510 Postby Frank P » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:40 pm

0z ICON slight shift east…
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#511 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:49 pm

The 00Z GFS looks to be way NE. I don't get that. Anyone have the coordinates that it initialised on?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#512 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:51 pm

SoupBone wrote:The 00Z GFS looks to be way NE. I don't get that. Anyone have the coordinates that it initialised on?


First LLC is around 16.3N 77.5W. The satellite image suggests the real center to be at least 1.5 degrees south of that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#513 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:The 00Z GFS looks to be way NE. I don't get that. Anyone have the coordinates that it initialised on?


First LLC is around 16.3N 77.5W. The satellite image suggests the real center to be at least 1.5 degrees south of that.


Gotcha. This is why I think people need to be very cautious. This is giving people in Texas a false sense of security (not that I think it's coming here).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#514 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:55 pm

Center passes just off the western tip of Jamaica on this run… expecting GFS to continue with an eastern solution, but may have initialized a little too far north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#515 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:55 pm

SoupBone wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:The 00Z GFS looks to be way NE. I don't get that. Anyone have the coordinates that it initialised on?


First LLC is around 16.3N 77.5W. The satellite image suggests the real center to be at least 1.5 degrees south of that.


Gotcha. This is why I think people need to be very cautious. This is giving people in Texas a false sense of security (not that I think it's coming here).


It seemed to pick up the current center, but there had to either be a relocation (a full 1.5 degrees north) or fighting for two centers. So far, it's even farther east...heading for Mobile?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#516 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:56 pm

GFS even further east exiting Cuba, almost in the Florida straits.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#517 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
First LLC is around 16.3N 77.5W. The satellite image suggests the real center to be at least 1.5 degrees south of that.


Gotcha. This is why I think people need to be very cautious. This is giving people in Texas a false sense of security (not that I think it's coming here).


It seemed to pick up the current center, but there had to either be a relocation (a full 1.5 degrees north) or fighting for two centers. So far, it's even farther east...heading for Mobile?



Massive jump east at hour 60. What the hell is going on here?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#518 Postby Woofde » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:58 pm

GFS run is already a potent 991mb TS at hour 60. Still trending faster and further north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#519 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:58 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:The 00Z GFS looks to be way NE. I don't get that. Anyone have the coordinates that it initialised on?


First LLC is around 16.3N 77.5W. The satellite image suggests the real center to be at least 1.5 degrees south of that.


Hey C. I was looking at some of the latitude comments earlier, and I just couldn't be sure. It's not like it's super elongated or anything, but I think there's a general broad turning overall as it's coming together. You could see some juice a little earlier on the IR. Regardless of any weak surface low, I feel like the real turning is north of 15.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

^^ I know that's somewhat in the mid-levels, but you can see the way everything is turning and would possibly consolidate in the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#520 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:58 pm

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS
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