ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5101 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:23 am

talkinggoat wrote:
LARanger wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Are you frigging kidding me??


They meant "work with" in a professional capacity . . . donating, fundraising, et cetera, obviously. Not "you there, with the boat, show me your non-profit papers."


Exactly. I worked for one of the groups I mentioned, in a high level position. While I was there, we performed background checks on all volunteers that would perform rescues. I personally worked to put this policy onto place, after we found a convicted murderer performing water rescues during Harvey.

As an ex police officer and cyber security expert, I also researched claims of fraud and abuse. I found one guy, after Harvey, who was calling people, saying he was with the "Cajun Navy." His reasoning was because he was a Cajun and he had a boat. He was doing this to figure out when people were at work, so he and his buddies could go steal everything out their houses. Of course, this dude didn't work with us, but these disasters bring the scammers out the woodworks.

About the pets, they ask this because they need to know what supplies to bring and which shelters to route you to. If you have animals, but don't have a pet carrier, we'll find one. We even found a boat to transport a man's pet donkey, because the sheriff refused to take it and he refused to leave without it. Many of them partner with animal rescue groups, to help facilitate extraction. Further, If you have pets, it's going to be hard to bring you to a shelter that doesn't accept them and it's even harder when you have to leave your cat behind. Idk if how many of us are still with that group, but we know why they ask, "do you have any pets?" Some of these groups take this very seriously.

...and about the coastguard, they are some fine people, but they don't have the resources to deal with something of this magnitude. During 2016, I was performing rescues in Sorento, La. The USCG has 1 boat, with a 12 HP engine, while there was a steady stream of citizen volunteers. They were doing more to help people launch their boats than actually rescuing people. During Harvey, they received so many phone calls, it either shut down their system or they transferred their phones to Washington DC, because they stopped taking calls at their local office.

I setup the software used by one of the groups, during Harvey, to receive, track and verify rescues and I can say there were over 3,500 people we pulled out of floodwaters and delivered to dry land, in 24 hours. I estimate the actual number being closer to 5500-6000, because there were boaters being sent into areas where there was no cell service for a family of 3 and they would come out with 10 people. We heard about this later in the day, so it never got officially recorded.

LARanger is correct. My comment was directed at donations, volunteer work and mentions. Rant over.


Rant appreciated LOL; it's just amazing the length that some will go to in order to take advantage of others. Hopefully that'll mean that people on social media will feel comfortable knowing that they are actually contacting the legit "Cajun Navy". I suppose that there might still be some who will continue to take advantage and solicit their name and number falsely however I can only hope that if and when this were to occur, those people on social media will be shut down fairly quickly. Unfortunately, i'm still not sure that absolutely protects those who broadcast their own or other persons address on social media during a moment of crisis hoping that "anyone" (friend, neighbor, Cajun Navy, or police) will see and try to respond. Desperate times do call for desperate measures. Its sad that such a risk would possibly exist during a time of peril and those attempting to hurt or take advantage under such false pretense should be convicted to the fullest extent of the law.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
SouthernBreeze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 284
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5102 Postby SouthernBreeze » Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:40 am

I find it mind-boggling that last night some LA officials were saying power would be out for many until at least Mon AM - I don't see how they could possibly think they could get many people back online in only 24 hrs, after something like this!
2 likes   
My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd

User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5103 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:48 am

SouthernBreeze wrote:I find it mind-boggling that last night some LA officials were saying power would be out for many until at least Mon AM - I don't see how they could possibly think they could get many people back online in only 24 hrs, after something like this!

Sort of like how I saw many parishes only cancelling school for Monday, then after Ida was tearing them up they added Tuesday. How about “until further notice”?
7 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5104 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:03 am

Unbelievable...


Conversation
Tiffany Fortier
@tfortier_wx
With the help of wxtwitter, I found some footage of what looks like Grand Isle, LA experiencing Ida’s inner eyewall. It sounds terrifying.
You can view the whole live video here:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYrtr19RQlc
1 likes   

talkinggoat
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:24 pm

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5105 Postby talkinggoat » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:08 am

sbcc wrote:Brandon Ivey video of Ida causing destruction in Houma: https://youtu.be/uid654Nx8wE


11s, You know you're in Louisiana when the tumbleweed bouncing across the screen is replaced by a crawfish trap.
8 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9154
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5106 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:13 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5107 Postby Meteorcane » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:18 am

Now that we are seeing some more daylight pictures of damage (drone footage likely incoming will help this), we can start melding them with obs to get a picture of Ida's windfield around and just after landfall. My initial assessment of peak winds based on the damage photos, surface obs, and to some degree radar signatures:

[*]Port Fouchon-vicinity: 120-130mph sust, gusts 150-160mph. I still don't trust the ship measurement was sited properly but I will say these winds could be higher but I haven't seen any wind damage photos
[*]Southern Lafourche parish (Golden Meadow, Galliano, up towards Cut Off, Larose, and Lockport): 90-110mph sust, gusts 120-140mph. An FCMP site near Galliano measured sustained winds in the low 90s, and gusts in the 120s, but I assume that it did not necessarily capture the peak winds in the area. Damage so far looks consistent with strong Cat1, Cat2 winds (a few pockets of enhanced damage may be related to mesovortices).
[*]Houma and vicinity: 90-100mph sust, gusts 110-130mph. Not a lot of good wind obs on the western side of the eye, but damage so far looks consistent with higher-end Cat1, low-end Cat2 winds. A site near Dulac did measure sustained winds over 90 mph and gusts to near 140 mph, so admittedly it is possible there were periods of higher gusts.
[*]Grand Isle western side: 90-100mph sust, gusts 120-140mph. Once again not sure the gust measurements in the 140s were accurate, but will give a higher gust range here to account for it.
[*]Grand Isle eastern side: 70-80mph sust, 90-110mph gusts. Supported by buoy obs on northeast side of the island, which peaked at 72G97 yesterday.

The NOLA metro is trickier as the official observing sites would only support peak sustained 60-70mph with gusts 80-100mph but there are enough data gaps and given a few private measurements of gusts over 100mph... I would say a broad 60-80mph sustained, and 90-110mph peak gusts would cover most of the area, with weaker winds over the eastern metro and stronger over the western metro in Jefferson parish.

I haven't seen enough from the Laplace area to make a good assessment but I would assume Cat1ish winds through most of that area, with possibly some Cat2 winds further south towards Des Allemands and Raceland
7 likes   

fllawyer
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 78
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:45 am

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5108 Postby fllawyer » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:27 am

2 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5109 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:27 am

Post-season analysis will be invaluable for this storm. The 172 mph gust measured, likely at 18 meters AGL at Port Fouchon is incredibly impressive, and one of the highest recorded gusts I can remember seeing for a major tropical cyclone. Clear ground truth evidence for a high-end Category 4 landfall. What the exact wind speeds were will be determined once that report is written up.
14 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5110 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:43 am

Furthermore, that 172 mph gust was not measured in the NE eyewall, which highlights that there could have been even higher gusts taking place there.
6 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5111 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:57 am

After seeing that report, the operational 130 kt estimate seems accurate for the landfall intensity, which is a bit higher than Recon supported at that time. However, I'd bump the peak intensity up to 135 kt (which was yesterday at 1200Z) based on earlier velocities and the 148 kt FL winds. I'll write up a possible BT soon.
7 likes   

jhpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 570
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5112 Postby jhpigott » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:09 pm

08-30-2021 Braithwaite, LA-Hurricane Ida Levee Overtopped- homes deep in water- drone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60ZruBO7UR8&t=120s
1 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5113 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:11 pm

jasons2k wrote:I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.


Speaking of Grand Isle....wasn't expecting that west jog overnight Sunday but overall not a bad call from Thursday evening. I haven't calculated distances yet but I'm pretty sure it's a decent mark closer than where the NHC was at the time. I'll get to it in my own post-analysis.

Also, I think a case can/will be made for 155mph at landfall. Cat 5 might be a stretch but there is still much data to look at still.
3 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5114 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:24 pm

Waiting for fly-over video of Grand Isle...

Looks like another Holly Beach from that Twitter link...
3 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9617
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5115 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:38 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Unbelievable...


Conversation
Tiffany Fortier
@tfortier_wx
With the help of wxtwitter, I found some footage of what looks like Grand Isle, LA experiencing Ida’s inner eyewall. It sounds terrifying.
You can view the whole live video here:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYrtr19RQlc


Wind sounds like souls mourning in hell.
7 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4760
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5116 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:41 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think Ida will be upgraded to Cat 5 post analysis. A sustained wind found by an observation of 149mph is clearly an indicator that Ida was extremely powerful. Also this was recorded after Ida made landfall so I think it will be upgraded.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ls/1006534


Your evidence of a cat 5 is actually evidence of a cat 4. I hope it's not upgraded. A high end cat 4 is horrific. One of the weak point of hurricane categories is the huge range for a cat 4. 130 and 155 are the same? That strikes me as crazy. I like the super typhoon designation at 150. Once you near that threshold...it's a total wipeout. A high end cat 4 (or worse) is total devastation.
7 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5117 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:56 pm

In my opinion, Ida is going to be kept at a Category IV in post-season analysis. I have never seen the NHC change a storm's peak intensity by more than 5 knots in a tropical cyclone report.
1 likes   

dukeblue219
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5118 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:01 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:In my opinion, Ida is going to be kept at a Category IV in post-season analysis. I have never seen the NHC change a storm's peak intensity by more than 5 knots in a tropical cyclone report.


I agree with your assessment though didn't Andrew eventually get bumped from 145 mph landfall (the Homestead landfall) to 165 mph?
1 likes   

Powellrm
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 102
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:40 pm

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5119 Postby Powellrm » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:03 pm

TallyTracker wrote:
sbcc wrote:Lockport video: https://youtu.be/f7HfJd_IkjA


That’s absolutely nuts to be driving around in that type of winds…kids don’t try this ever…


can't believe that guy was in some of the spots he was in. At one point a minute or so into the video, he was out of his car trying to clear branches from the road...and other basically sitting below near falling power lines. So dangerous.
1 likes   

User avatar
Woofde
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 479
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:33 am

Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5120 Postby Woofde » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:17 pm

NDG wrote:Looking around in the internet this morning, many are saying how the highest winds reported at N.O. Int'l (MSY) was 90 mph, but there was a period of two hours that the reports coming out of MSY did not report wind speeds, in the moment they were reporting their lowest pressure of 977 mb, with the eye just a few miles to its west. So I am sure the city experienced higher winds than that.
Fox 8 TV station in Mid City Nola reported a wind gust up to 114 mph.
I was actually just south of there at the Hilton, there is no way the highest winds were just 90mph, the damage was very telling. Probably over 50% of the power poles snapped in the surrounding area.
3 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests