ATL: ELSA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

For those of you still following the Euro its latest 06z run has Elsa opening up into the TW tonight, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/EASagi4.png

I really hope the people that run the euro are doing some heavy upgrades and fast.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS much weaker and further north through 30 hours.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS coming in considerably weaker through 24 hours, despite Elsa's bout of intensification.

[AutoPenalti]

I don't think GFS initialized properly...

[AutoPenalti]

1005mb as it smashes DR.

[kevin]

GFS initialized as a 1002 mbar system at 18z even though we already know from recon data that Elsa was deepening and at least 998 mbar around 12z. So, as much as I would like Elsa to 'underperform' so the carib can get a break for once, I don't think we should put much stock in models atm (not just GFS but also the others) until the recon data is fed into them which definitely wasn't the case yet for 12z since recon was still busy when the models started calculating. Let's hope this does become a trend though. Tracking hurricanes from a distance is fun, but considering it's heading towards land I'd rather have a cat 1 than a cat 3 landfall in the carib.

[toad strangler]

1005mb as it smashes DR.

Wait, 12z is south of DR ...

[AutoPenalti]

1005mb as it smashes DR.

Wait, 12z is south of DR ...

Sorry, I meant to say Jamaica. It didn't even go right in, it just clipped it.

[AutoPenalti]

[AerospaceEng]

So ignoring Elsa on the 12z GFS because of the terrible initialization, the ridge appears stronger. More west shifts?

[AutoPenalti]

So ignoring Elsa on the 12z GFS because of the terrible initialization, the ridge appears stronger. More west shifts?

Seems to have slightly shifted W.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Even if the GFS didn’t initialize properly, it’s possible it’s seeing less favorable conditions in the Gulf. Need to see if the 18z and HWRF show the same.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS coming in further west with a stronger high.

It's hard to ignore models coming in weaker as well. Euro, ICON, Nam and Gfs not impressed once in the gulf

[Cat5James]

12Z CMC has shifted noticeably north FWIW

[fox13weather]

For those of you still following the Euro its latest 06z run has Elsa opening up into the TW tonight, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/EASagi4.png

I really hope the people that run the euro are doing some heavy upgrades and fast.

What if it turns out to be more accurate than the GFS? Is it impossible for the Euro solution to come close to verifying?

[AutoPenalti]

For those of you still following the Euro its latest 06z run has Elsa opening up into the TW tonight, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/EASagi4.png

I really hope the people that run the euro are doing some heavy upgrades and fast.

What if it turns out to be more accurate than the GFS? Is it impossible for the Euro solution to come close to verifying?

Well for starters, it didn't get initialization right for the past 3 days...

[Ivanhater]

Add the 12Z Canadian to opening this up into a wave

[fox13weather]

I really hope the people that run the euro are doing some heavy upgrades and fast.

What if it turns out to be more accurate than the GFS? Is it impossible for the Euro solution to come close to verifying?

Well for starters, it didn't get initialization right for the past 3 days...

So? It doesn't mean that it's solution will turn out wrong. If Elsa ends up much weaker and east of Florida, it will be more accurate than the GFS. I will admit that it's forecast looks suspect, but it in two days it's not impossible that we are saying that the euro was on to something all along....

[Nimbus]

So ignoring Elsa on the 12z GFS because of the terrible initialization, the ridge appears stronger. More west shifts?

12Z GFS is just one model and the forcast ridge is much stronger in just one model run.
Kind of puts things in the proper perspective.
The official guidance is supposed to indicate the track of highest probability, but when there is a wide cone and plenty of 20% and 40% probabilities that could verify confidence remains a little low.

[robbielyn]

Even if the GFS didn’t initialize properly, it’s possible it’s seeing less favorable conditions in the Gulf. Need to see if the 18z and HWRF show the same.

nhc agrees there will be less favorable conditions in the gulf. levi should be putting out a video soon.